Ballistic Missile Strike (Kharkiv/Lozova): (0158Z, AFU Air Force/Vanyok, HIGH) Detection and launch of ballistic missiles from the east targeting Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast.
Civilian Casualties Confirmed (Dnipro): (0215Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA, HIGH) Official confirmation that an infant and a 4-year-old girl were wounded during the ongoing strike campaign against Dnipro.
Deep Strike on Russian Infrastructure (Michurinsk): (0209Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH) Multiple Ukrainian UAVs impacted infrastructure in Michurinsk, Tambov Oblast (approx. 400km from the border), resulting in fires and two casualties.
Russian MLRS Engagement (Dnipropetrovsk): (0200Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM) Russian forces released footage of MLRS batteries (likely BM-21 or BM-30) operating in muddy conditions against UAF positions in the Dnipropetrovsk sector.
UAV Wave Attrition (National): (0205Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, MEDIUM) Current "Shahed" (moped) count is in the terminal phase; however, residual units remain active in the airspace.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Lozova Sector: A new ballistic threat has emerged, shifting the focus from slow-moving UAVs to high-velocity munitions. Lozova is a critical railway and logistics hub; targeting this area suggests an intent to disrupt the flow of reserves to the Donbas front.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: The sector remains under multi-vector pressure. While the previous UAV wave is being attrited, the introduction of MLRS fires (0200Z) indicates Russian tube/rocket artillery is within range of UAF forward concentrations or critical rear-area nodes.
Russian Rear (Tambov Oblast): The strike on Michurinsk demonstrates UAF's continued capability to penetrate deep into the Russian interior to strike logistics and industrial infrastructure, potentially targeting the oil refinery or railway junction located there.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The transition from UAV saturation to ballistic missiles (0158Z) follows a standard Russian "pulse" pattern—using cheaper drones to map/deplete AD before following up with harder-to-intercept ballistics.
MLRS Employment: RU MoD footage (0200Z) confirms tactical artillery is active despite the muddy conditions mentioned in the visual evidence. This suggests that while the ground is frozen in some sectors, "rasputitsa-like" conditions persist in others, affecting mobility.
Course of Action: Likely focusing on Lozova to sever the GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) between Kharkiv and the northern Donetsk front.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Actively engaging ballistic targets over Kharkiv Oblast. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are continuing to hunt the "remainder" of the UAV wave (0205Z).
Deep Strike Ops: UAF long-range UAV units successfully bypassed Russian AD nets to hit Tambov Oblast, maintaining pressure on the Russian domestic front.
Casualty Management: Emergency services in Dnipro are prioritizing pediatric trauma care following the wounding of an infant and a young child (0215Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Posturing: Dmitry Peskov’s suggestion that Donald Trump might be invited to the Victory Day parade (0213Z) is a calculated hybrid signal intended to influence US political discourse and suggest a "normalization" of relations on Russian terms.
Kinetic Propaganda: The RU MoD’s rapid release of MLRS strike footage (0200Z) serves to counter-narrate Ukrainian drone successes by highlighting Russian tactical dominance in the Dnipropetrovsk sector.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued ballistic and KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Donetsk hubs (Lozova, Sloviansk) to exploit the disruption caused by the overnight UAV campaign.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary wave of ballistic missiles targeting the repair crews and emergency services in Dnipro and Kyiv ("double-tap" logic) during the height of the pre-dawn cold.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the specific infrastructure type hit in Michurinsk (Oil refinery vs. Railway) to assess the impact on Russian southern group logistics.
[HIGH] Determine the launch platform for the Lozova ballistics (Iskander-M from Belgorod vs. S-300 in surface-to-surface mode) to estimate remaining enemy magazine depth.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for retaliatory Russian strikes specifically targeting Ukrainian drone manufacturing or launch sites following the Tambov/Michurinsk incident.
