Confirmed Infrastructure Hits (Kyiv): (0035Z, Kyiv Mayor/Klitschko, HIGH) Enemy ballistic missiles have struck infrastructure objects in the capital; emergency services are responding.
New Ballistic Launch (Bryansk): (0041Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Detection of a fresh ballistic missile pulse launched from the Bryansk region (RU) targeting Kyiv.
Cruise Missile Maneuver (Dnipro): (0027Z-0030Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, HIGH) At least one cruise missile performed a terminal-phase maneuver over Pavlohrad, reorienting toward Dnipro.
Tactical KAB Escalation: (0052Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) Launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy and the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border regions.
Combined Kyiv Assault: (0047Z, Kyiv OVA, HIGH) Combat operations transitioned to a "combined attack" with UAVs (Geran-2) entering the city limits (Darnitsa/Zhuliany) simultaneously with ballistic arrivals.
Loss of Personnel Transport (Kharkiv): (0033Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED) Claims of a drone strike destroying a UAF transport vehicle near Okhrymivka, Kharkiv region. LOW CONFIDENCE.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Strategic Sector: The capital is currently the "Main Effort" of the Russian strike package. The attack has evolved into a high-complexity combined strike. Ballistic missiles from the north (Bryansk) are timed to impact as UAVs reach the city center (Darnitsa/Zhuliany), likely intended to fix Air Defense (AD) radars on high-altitude targets while "mopeds" (UAVs) penetrate at low altitudes.
Dnipropetrovsk/Central Sector: Dnipro is under sustained pressure. Following the previous ballistic wave, eight (8) UAVs are currently inbound (0056Z). The maneuver of a cruise missile from Pavlohrad suggests a multi-axis approach to bypass local AD.
Southern/Kherson Sector: A new wave of UAVs has entered the airspace from the south (0053Z), potentially targeting Mykolaiv or Odesa, or serving as a reserve wave for the Dnipro axis.
Sumy/Kharkiv Sector: The enemy is utilizing tactical aviation (KABs) to strike the border regions, likely targeting logistics and staging areas to prevent reinforcements from moving toward the Donbas.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Synchronization: The enemy is demonstrating high proficiency in "Time on Target" (ToT) coordination, syncing ballistic launches from Bryansk with the arrival of UAVs from the south and east.
Electronic/Information Warfare: Russian channels (NgP RaZVvedka) are claiming "RosElectroNadzor" (fictional entity) is "slowing down electricity" in Dnipro (0032Z). This is a psychological operation designed to mask the kinetic effects of strikes on power distribution nodes and cause panic during the -27°C freeze.
Weapon Systems: Use of KABs in the north and east suggests the VKS is operating closer to the border to support the long-range missile campaign, exploiting potential gaps in AD coverage created by the concentration of interceptors around Kyiv and Dnipro.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AD is heavily engaged. A successful intercept of a missile was reported at 0033Z (Vanek). The concentration of UAVs in Zhuliany (0045Z) indicates the enemy is targeting critical infrastructure or the airport area, requiring high-intensity terminal defense.
Damage Mitigation: Local administrations (OVA) and municipal services are in active "Combined Attack" protocols. The priority remains maintaining heat and power to prevent systemic grid failure in extreme cold.
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control: RU sources are circulating videos of "signal fires" in Kyiv, claiming they are for "US submarines" (0042Z). This absurd narrative is likely a distraction or an attempt to mock Western aid while visually confirming successful strikes/fires in the capital.
Narrative Push: Pro-RU channels are explicitly contrasting their perceived success with Iskanders vs. the UAF's ability to intercept Kinzhals (0048Z), attempting to undermine confidence in Western-supplied AD systems like Patriot.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): The current UAV waves (8 toward Dnipro, multiple over Kyiv/Kherson) will continue to probe for gaps for the next 2-3 hours. Once the UAVs are cleared, a secondary BDA-driven (Battle Damage Assessment) strike using tactical aviation or sea-launched Kalibrs is likely.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A massive KAB/ballistic surge targeting the electrical substations of the North-South transmission lines, attempting a permanent "cold-start" blackout while temperatures remain at -27°C.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of energy grid status in Dnipro following "slowdown" claims; determine if outages are due to kinetic strikes or preventative shutdowns.
[HIGH] Assessment of the Okhrymivka (Kharkiv) strike claim to determine if a new RU FPV/reconnaissance cell is operating behind the immediate tactical line.
[IMMEDIATE] Confirmation of the specific infrastructure damage in Kyiv (Klitschko's report) to assess impact on city-wide heating capabilities.
