Situation Update (2026-02-11 09:15 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- MASSIVE ASSAULT VOLUME (POKROVSK): (08:55, General Staff UA/Liveuamap, HIGH) UAF repelled 35 separate assault actions in the Pokrovsk direction over the last reporting period, indicating this remains the primary Russian operational focus.
- UAV SATURATION CONTINUES: (08:34-08:50, UA Air Force, HIGH) New drone vectors identified heading toward Konotop (Sumy), Zaporizhzhia (from the north), and Dnipro (from the south).
- C2 FRICTION (RU): (08:41-08:50, Gladkov/Dva Mayora, HIGH) Belgorod Governor Gladkov issued a second urgent warning regarding Telegram "slowdowns," stating it directly hinders the delivery of critical safety information. He is now actively pushing civilians to the "MAX" messenger.
- KREMLIN C2 ISOLATION: (08:48, Alex Parker/Peskov, MEDIUM) Kremlin spokesperson Peskov confirmed Putin does not use messengers, relying solely on "special communications," further distancing central leadership from the tactical C2 reality on the ground.
- AVIATION SURGE (SOUTH): (08:55, General Staff UA, HIGH) Significant spike in Russian aviation activity with airstrikes confirmed across 17+ settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
- UNCONFIRMED UAF ATTRITION (HULIAIPOLE): (08:47, Colonelcassad, LOW) RU sources claim increased UAF infantry losses west of Huliaipole during "small-scale counter-attacks." No visual corroboration provided; likely Russian information operation to counter UA General Staff reports of active defense.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Kharkiv Sector: Clashes reported near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory. President Zelenskyy condemned a fatal RU strike on Bohodukhiv that killed a father and three children, framing it as a direct subversion of diplomatic efforts (08:48).
- Lyman/Sloviansk Sectors: Heavy fighting continues near Zakitne and Zarichne (08:55). This corroborates the "Ice Armor" breach reported in the daily brief; RU is attempting to exploit frozen river crossings.
- Pokrovsk Sector: Highest intensity of the front. Assaults are multi-directional, targeting Rodynske, Pokrovsk city outskirts, and Hryshyne (08:55).
- Kostiantynivka Sector: 10 assaults reported yesterday targeting Yablunivka and Rusyn Yar (08:55).
- Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole Sector: Contested. UA General Staff confirms clashes near Huliaipole and Zaliznychne, contradicting earlier RU claims of a deep breakthrough (08:55).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Aviation-Heavy Combined Arms: RU is increasingly using aviation (Su-34/35) to soften defensive lines ahead of high-volume infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
- Digital Fragility: The continued public distress from Governor Gladkov (08:50) regarding Telegram throttling suggests the RU military-civilian interface in border regions is nearing a point of failure, creating opportunities for UAF psychological operations.
- Tactical Shift: In the Sloviansk/Lyman direction, the 7 reported assaults near Zakitne suggest RU is doubling down on infantry-heavy crossings of frozen water obstacles.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense: Despite 35 assaults in Pokrovsk, defensive lines appear to hold, though resource exhaustion (drones/ammo) remains a high-risk factor.
- Interception Mission: Air Defense units are currently tracking and engaging multiple UAV groups over Sumy, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia (08:50).
Information environment / disinformation
- RU Internal Messaging: State media is emphasizing "MAX" messenger adoption and distracting domestic audiences with social issues (LGBT fines, Moscow housing costs) to mask the C2 crisis in Belgorod.
- Reflexive Control: RU mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are attempting to depict UAF counter-attacks in Zaporizhzhia as "meat assaults" to undermine morale during the ongoing "Deep Freeze."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued high-intensity infantry assaults in Pokrovsk supported by KAB strikes. Continued UAV harassment of Dnipro and Konotop to pin down UAF AD assets.
- MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike on the energy grid (per "Quiet Depot" signals) timed to exploit the ongoing RU-internal digital C2 chaos and solar flare-induced communication gaps.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm the status of the frozen river crossing at Zakitne; have RU forces established a sustainable lodgment on the western bank?
- [HIGH] Identify the specific aviation units operating out of southern airbases to determine if the surge is sustainable or a short-term "dash."
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the "MAX" messenger for RU tactical chatter to see if military units are successfully migrating their lateral comms.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield remains frozen (-27°C), favoring RU's shift to infantry infiltration over the ice in Siversk/Lyman but causing massive mechanical strain on RU C2 infrastructure in Belgorod.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RU "Tsentr Group" in Pokrovsk is operating at a high tempo (35 assaults/day), likely attempting to achieve an operational breakthrough before any potential diplomatic shifts or weather changes. Their reliance on aviation in the south suggests they lack the heavy armor mobility needed for a breakthrough on frozen ground.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is successfully managing a "defense-in-depth" strategy, particularly in Zaporizhzhia. However, the geographic spread of RU aviation strikes (17+ locations) is stretching mobile AD groups thin.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The Russian C2 structure is splitting: regional governors are desperate for functioning lateral comms (Telegram), while the Kremlin remains isolated in "special communications" (08:48). This creates a lag in RU's ability to respond to rapid tactical changes.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Expect the "Lyman-Sloviansk" axis to remain the most volatile over the next 12 hours as RU attempts to turn the "Ice Armor" breach at Zakitne into a wider flanking maneuver against the Siversk defensive line.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
