Situation Update (2026-02-11 02:27 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- UAV WAVE INITIATED: (01:58-02:16, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Multiple groups of Russian loitering munitions (Shahed/Geran) detected on three primary vectors: North (Sumy/Konotop), South (Zaporizhzhia), and Central-West (Kryvyi Rih).
- ZAPORIZHZHIA COUNTER-NARRATIVE: (02:26, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM) UAF Defense Forces officially confirm "successes" in the Huliaipole direction, directly contradicting earlier Russian claims of a 16km breakthrough.
- NORTHERN SECTOR KINETIC STRIKE: (02:05, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) A Russian Lancet loitering munition reportedly struck UAF engineering equipment attempting to repair a river crossing in the "Sever" grouping's Area of Operations (AO).
- PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS: (02:03, TASS, LOW) Russian state media is circulating claims of UAF psychological warfare against families of deceased soldiers; likely a "mirror" propaganda effort to incite domestic anger during the C2 blackout.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): Russian UAVs are currently transiting northern Sumy towards Konotop, Krolevets, and Hlukhiv (01:58). In the "Sever" grouping area, Russian loitering munitions are active against UAF engineering assets (02:05), likely targeting the river-crossing capabilities critical for maintaining the Siverskyi Donets defensive line.
- Zaporizhzhia Sector: New UAV threats are inbound to the city (01:59). Of tactical significance, the UAF has confirmed operational successes near Huliaipole (02:26). This suggests the Russian "breakthrough" reported in previous cycles was either halted or successfully counter-attacked.
- Rear Areas (Kryvyi Rih): UAVs from the north are currently on a course for Kryvyi Rih (02:16), indicating a widening of the strike envelope beyond the immediate frontline.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Multi-Vector UAV Saturation: The synchronized launch of UAVs toward Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih serves as a classic "shaping" operation. These assets are likely intended to map/deplete Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) positions ahead of the anticipated mass missile strike from the 260th GRAU Arsenal.
- Engineering Denial: The focus on engineering equipment in the North (02:05) confirms the Russian strategy to exploit the "Deep Freeze" (-27°C). By destroying repair equipment, they intend to keep river crossings unusable for UAF heavy armor while their light infantry continues to cross the ice.
- Strategic Information Maneuvers: The Kremlin continues to use TASS to push narratives of Western hostility (Primakov on "Russian Houses," 02:11) and humanitarian distraction (Maslenitsa health advice, 02:24) to mask the domestic instability caused by the Telegram/C2 "digital vacuum."
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Counter-Offensive Actions: UAF units in the Huliaipole sector have regained the initiative or stabilized the line, successfully countering Russian claims of a 16km deep breach (02:26).
- Maintenance of Defensive Barrier: Engineering units remain active in the North despite being targeted by loitering munitions, indicating a high-priority effort to maintain/restore tactical river barriers against ice-borne infiltration.
Information environment / disinformation
- Russian "Victimhood" Narratives: TASS reporting on the alleged harassment of Russian mothers (02:03) and the "hostility" toward Russian cultural centers in Europe (02:11) aims to consolidate domestic support.
- Conflicting Reports: The 02:26 UAF confirmation of success in Huliaipole is a critical counter-information move to neutralize the demoralizing effect of earlier Russian milblogger reports concerning a deep breakthrough.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): UAV waves will continue to loiter and probe for AD gaps for the next 2-4 hours. This will likely be followed by a high-precision missile strike against energy infrastructure as the "Deep Freeze" peaks before dawn.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A combined-arms push across the frozen Siverskyi Donets, supported by VKS standoff strikes from the newly delivered Su-57s, aimed at outflanking the Siversk defensive line while AD is saturated by the current UAV waves.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of the specific nature of UAF "success" in Huliaipole: Was it a recovery of lost ground or a successful ambush of the Russian spearhead?
- [HIGH] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the engineering equipment in the North. If bridge-laying/repair capability is lost, the 81st Airmobile's ability to respond to the Zakitne breach is severely degraded.
- [MEDIUM] Identification of the "new type" of drone swatted by the 118th Mech; does it correlate with the current wave heading for Kryvyi Rih?
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing despite the -27°C temperature. The introduction of multi-vector UAV strikes (01:58-02:16) indicates the transition from "shaping" to "execution" phase of the Russian winter offensive. Battlefield geometry is shifting in Zaporizhzhia as UAF counters Russian gains.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
The enemy is demonstrating tactical persistence in the North (targeting engineering units) while attempting to flood the information space with "soft" news (Maslenitsa) and "hard" propaganda (soldier photos) to distract from the C2 vacuum. The "silence" at the GRAU Arsenal remains the most dangerous indicator of impending heavy missile use.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF air defense is currently engaged across three sectors. The successful stabilization in Huliaipole is a significant morale and tactical booster, though engineering assets in the North are under high threat.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
A high-intensity narrative war is coinciding with the kinetic escalation. Russia is attempting to frame the conflict as a struggle against "strangulation" and "hostility" while UAF focuses on confirming tactical ground truths to counter-act "milblogger" alarmism.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The current UAV activity is the final precursor. Decision Point: If AD intercepts are high in the next 2 hours, expect a shift in Russian missile target coordinates to secondary "soft" targets. If the engineering repairs at the Siverskyi Donets fail, the Siversk defensive line must prepare for an immediate envelope maneuver.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
