Situation Update (2026-02-10 23:15 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- BOHODUKHIV MASS CASUALTY STRIKE: (22:45, Oleh Syniehubov/Kharkiv ODA, HIGH) Confirmed fatalities from the strike on a private residence: two 1-year-old boys and one 2-year-old girl killed. A 34-year-old man was also killed; a 35-year-old pregnant woman and a 74-year-old woman are injured.
- KHARKIV ENERGY CRITICALITY: (22:51, Operatsiya Z/Mayor Terekhov, HIGH) Reports confirm Kharkiv’s TPP-5 is "effectively destroyed" following recent massive strikes. Currently, 853 buildings across four districts remain without central heating in -27°C conditions.
- ZAPORIZHZHIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: (22:50, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH) Subsequent strikes on Zaporizhzhia have resulted in structural damage (broken windows) but no preliminary casualties. Electricity is restored; however, heat restoration in one specific district remains stalled, necessitating additional emergency shelters.
- POST-STRIKE SUMMARY: (22:43, Rybar, MEDIUM) Russian milbloggers are synthesizing the day's operations, focusing on the degradation of the Ukrainian energy rear and tactical gains in the Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv sectors.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Kharkiv Sector: The operational focus has shifted from critical infrastructure (TPP-5) to residential "terror strikes" (Bohodukhiv). The total loss of TPP-5 capacity significantly degrades the sustainability of the Kharkiv garrison and civilian population during the "Deep Freeze."
- Zaporizhzhia Sector: The sector remains under kinetic pressure. While electricity grid resilience is high, the failure to restore heat in key districts (Komunarskyi) indicates Russian strikes have successfully compromised the secondary heating loops.
- Rear Areas: Ongoing search and rescue (SAR) operations in Bohodukhiv are concluding with high fatality counts, likely impacting local morale and requiring increased Civil-Military Co-operation (CIMIC) intervention.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is maintaining a high tempo of strikes against the "energy-heat-survival" nexus. By destroying TPP-5 and targeting residential areas in Bohodukhiv, the RU forces are attempting to create a humanitarian crisis that forces UAF to divert logistics from the front to the rear.
- Weaponry: The strike in Bohodukhiv (private residence) suggests the use of precision munitions or loitering munitions, indicating the enemy is not restrained by "Deep Freeze" environmental factors when targeting soft residential targets.
- C2 Status: While Russian lateral communication (Telegram/MAX app) remains fractured, their centralized strike planning (likely via GRU/General Staff) appears unaffected by the digital blackout.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Emergency Management: State Emergency Services (DSNS) and Kharkiv ODA are managing the aftermath of the Bohodukhiv strike.
- Infrastructure Defense: Restoration efforts in Zaporizhzhia have prioritized the electrical grid (successful) over the heating network (ongoing), reflecting a triage-based approach to utility repair.
- Civilian Protection: Expansion of "Invincibility Points" in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv is the primary line of effort to prevent mass cold-weather casualties.
Information environment / disinformation
- Energy Narrative: Russian sources (Operatsiya Z) are aggressively amplifying the destruction of TPP-5 to project an image of Ukrainian collapse.
- Bohodukhiv Denial: Expect Russian information outlets to either ignore the child fatalities in Bohodukhiv or frame the residence as a "foreign mercenary deployment point," a standard reflexive control tactic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued "harassment strikes" against regional energy sub-stations to prevent the UAF from stabilizing the heating situation in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A major missile wave (as indicated by the "quiet" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal reported earlier) timed to coincide with the lowest temperatures of the "Deep Freeze" to achieve a total grid collapse.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm if TPP-5 destruction is total or if modular repairs are possible within the current weather window.
- [HIGH] Identify the specific munition type used in Bohodukhiv to determine if the enemy is testing new cold-weather guidance packages.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for any mass civilian movement out of Kharkiv due to the loss of TPP-5, which could clog logistics routes for the 81st Airmobile or 71st Jaeger brigades.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The "Deep Freeze" (-27°C) has transitioned from a tactical hurdle to a strategic threat. The confirmed destruction of Kharkiv TPP-5 represents a significant loss of "urban hardening," making the city more vulnerable to siege-like conditions without a single shell being fired at its outskirts.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
The enemy is executing a "Cold Weather Siege" doctrine. By systematically removing heating sources (TPP-5) and then hitting residential recovery sites (Bohodukhiv), they aim to break the social contract between the Ukrainian government and its citizens. The focus is on maximizing civilian trauma.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF units are currently holding the line at the frozen Siverskyi Donets (Zakitne), but the domestic crisis in Kharkiv may soon require military logistical support (mobile heating, water purification) to prevent humanitarian disaster, potentially thinning frontline reserves.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russia is using the TPP-5 footage as a centerpiece of their "winter campaign" success. The UAF must counter this by emphasizing the war crimes committed in Bohodukhiv to maintain international diplomatic pressure.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The silence from the Russian 260th GRAU Arsenal and the destruction of TPP-5 suggest we are in the "shaping phase" of a larger winter offensive. The next 12 hours are critical; if a major missile wave occurs now, the cumulative damage to the heating grid could be irreversible before spring.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
