Situation Update (2026-02-10T19:01Z)
Key updates since last sitrep
- PERSONNEL POLICY SHIFT: (18:54, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH) President Zelenskyy signed a decree authorizing citizens aged 60+ to enlist for military service under 1-year contracts. This refines previous reports of "60+ mobilization" from a forced measure to a voluntary contract-based expansion of the personnel pool.
- RU DIGITAL FRAGILITY: (18:39, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА; 18:41, Басурин о главном, HIGH) Major Russian mil-channels report a 25-30% drop in views and engagement due to state throttling of Telegram. Prominent channels are urgently migrating to the domestic "MAX" platform, indicating a significant disruption in Russian lateral information flow.
- AERIAL THREAT ESCALATION (SUMY/KHARKIV): (18:40, 18:50, Air Force UA, HIGH) Russian VKS has initiated KAB (guided bomb) strikes on the Sumy region and launched UAVs toward Kharkiv from the north.
- ZAPORIZHZHIA STRIKES: (18:41, ТАСС; 18:51, Air Force UA, MEDIUM) Russian occupation officials claim 14 casualties (5 KIA) in Vasylivka following UAF strikes. Simultaneously, Russian UAVs are reported inbound toward Zaporizhzhia city from the east.
- GEOPOLITICAL TENSION (US-IRAN): (18:36, ASTRA, MEDIUM) US President Trump has issued "very harsh" warnings to Iran regarding a potential deal, with reports of an additional carrier strike group deploying to the Middle East (Belief Score: 0.33).
Operational picture (by sector)
- Sumy/Kharkiv Sector: Russian activity has transitioned from infrastructure shelling to heavy aerial bombardment. KAB launches (18:40) represent a high-weight tactical escalation against Sumy. Kharkiv remains under persistent UAV threat.
- Kupyansk/Pokrovsk Sector: (18:46, 18:57, Colonelcassad/Операция Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED) Russian sources claim the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is sustaining high losses and "sacrificing" mobilized units. Conversely, UAF 3 OShBR footage (18:53) confirms active and successful FPV drone strikes against Russian Starlink terminals, antennas, and infantry in snowy terrain.
- Donetsk (Rodynske): (18:33, Colonelcassad, LOW) Russian-aligned sources are circulating purported radio intercepts of the UAF 425th "Skala" Regiment alleging severe water shortages and dehydration. This is currently assessed as a PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical: Russian "Center" groupings are maintaining pressure toward Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk borders, utilizing combined ISR and drone strikes (18:57).
- C2/Logistics: The Russian transition to the "MAX" messenger platform is causing immediate friction in their informal C2 networks. The 25-30% drop in reach (18:39) suggests that tactical-level "volunteer" logistics and real-time intelligence sharing among Russian units are currently degraded.
- Adaptation: Russian infantry continue to exhibit low morale in localized sectors, evidenced by confirmed "self-liquidation" (suicide by grenade) of a Russian soldier following a failed assault in the Lyman direction (18:47, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Sustainability Measures: The legal normalization of 60+ contract service (18:54) allows the UAF to retain experienced NCOs and specialists who would otherwise be aged out, providing a temporary buffer for brigade-level replenishment.
- Drone Operations: The "Deus Ex Machina" unit (3 OShBR) continues to demonstrate high-efficiency attrition of Russian communication infrastructure (Starlink/antennas), directly countering Russian attempts to maintain digital C2 (18:53).
- Internal Security: The Poltava TCC has clarified that phone confiscations are local security measures to prevent Russian targeting of mobilization centers via social media geolocating (18:40).
Information environment / disinformation
- Surrender Narrative: Russia is heavily pushing a "dehydration and abandonment" narrative regarding UAF units in the Rodynske area to encourage desertion.
- Mobilization Counter-Messaging: Pro-Russian sources continue to frame any UAF personnel changes as "desperate," while the UAF is attempting to frame the 60+ decree as a voluntary professional opportunity.
- Sanctions Impact: New EU sanctions targeting Russian cultural figures (Timati) and occupation administrators in Mariupol (18:58) are likely to be used by RU domestic media to further fuel "anti-Western" sentiment.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Continued KAB and UAV saturation strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv to pin UAF reserves.
- MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike from the "Quiet" 260th GRAU Arsenal (see prev report) remains a high threat, potentially timed to exploit the current digital confusion in both Russian and Ukrainian command spaces.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Determine if the reported "water shortage" in the 425th Regiment has a factual basis in localized logistics disruptions or is purely fabricated propaganda.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the Russian migration to the "MAX" platform to identify new open-source intelligence (OSINT) channels.
- [LOW] Assess the impact of the US carrier strike group movement on Iranian drone/missile shipments to Russian forces.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "digital fog" in the Russian rear and intensified aerial bombardment of the Ukrainian north. The thaw in weather is facilitating more aggressive infantry movements, though the 3 OShBR's success in snowy conditions indicates that tactical drone operations remain viable despite the slush.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
Russian forces are struggling with a self-inflicted digital wound. The throttling of Telegram has created a "dead zone" for Russian mil-bloggers, who serve as vital links for tactical funding and morale. However, the Russian VKS remains a potent threat, as evidenced by the rapid KAB launches on Sumy.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is moving toward a professionalization of older cohorts (60+) to stabilize the front. The focus on destroying Russian communication gear (Starlink/Antennas) suggests a deliberate strategy to exacerbate the digital blackout currently being imposed by the Kremlin's own censorship.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
A high-intensity propaganda war is targeting the 3 OShBR and 425th Regiment. The Kremlin is attempting to use internal Russian digital censorship to force its military community into state-controlled "silos" like the "MAX" app, which may paradoxically improve Russian operational security (OPSEC) in the long term if successful.
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
The next 6-12 hours will likely see an expansion of the air alert zone to central Ukraine as UAVs from the north and east converge. If the reported "water shortages" in Rodynske are real, we should expect a localized Russian ground push in that sector within the dawn window.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
