Situation Report

Situation Update (1701Z FEB 10)

Key updates since last sitrep

• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: (16:57, Air Force UAF, HIGH) Active threat of ballistic weapon usage from the northeast. Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and multiple northern/central regions (16:59, KMVA).
• NATIONWIDE POWER LIMITATIONS: (16:56, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Ukrenergo has announced hourly shutdown schedules and power limits for industrial consumers across ALL regions for Feb 11, following systemic grid damage.
• NEW SENSOR CAPABILITY: (16:45, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH) UAF has received the Lanza LTR-25 tactical early warning radar from Spain (Indra), significantly enhancing air defense detection range.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR ENGAGEMENT: (16:45, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM) HUR "Revanche" unit is conducting clearing operations on the outskirts of Stepnohirsk to dislodge Russian units attempting to entrench.
• RUSSIAN DIGITAL IRON CURTAIN: (16:57, ASTRA, HIGH) Russian regulators (RKN) have begun blocking YouTube via "sovereign internet" mechanisms, coinciding with ongoing Telegram throttling.
• DIPLOMATIC SYNCHRONIZATION: (16:37, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Defense Minister Umerov confirmed Ukraine has synchronized its negotiation positions and diplomatic track with international partners.
• PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (PSYOPS): (17:00, Воин DV, HIGH) Russian forces have launched a targeted surrender appeal to UAF units in the Vozdvizhivka-Krynychne-Tsvetkove sector, indicating a concentrated effort to break local morale.

Operational picture (by sector)

• Kyiv/Northern Sector: Currently under high-alert status due to ballistic threats from the NE. This correlates with the "noisy night" predicted in the daily report following the silence at the 260th GRAU Arsenal.
• Sumy Sector: Russian tactical activity reported in the Krasnopillya sector (16:56). This likely represents localized probing attacks to distract from the Siverskyi Donets ice crossings further south.
• Zaporizhzhia Sector: High kinetic intensity. While RU channels are conducting PSYOPS aimed at UAF surrender (17:00), UAF "Revanche" units are actively clearing enemy positions in Stepnohirsk (16:45), indicating a fluid frontline where RU is struggling to consolidate gains.
• Rear/Infrastructure: The situation has transitioned from a regional (Kharkiv) emergency to a nationwide energy management crisis (16:56).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Ballistic Strike Profile: The current alert suggests Russia has moved from loitering munition/cruise missile strikes to high-velocity ballistic assets, likely to circumvent AD corridors thinned by HUR "Phantom" raids (Ref: 16:32 Sitrep).
• C2 & Information Control: The blocking of YouTube (16:57) and Telegram throttling (16:40) indicates the Kremlin is preparing the domestic population for a major development or attempting to mask significant battlefield losses/unrest.
• Loitering Munition Usage: RU continues to leverage "Lancet" strikes for counter-battery and anti-armor roles (16:46), though UAF's receipt of Lanza LTR-25 radars (16:45) is a direct counter-measure to increase early detection of such threats.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Tactical Clearing: UAF units are demonstrating high initiative in the Zaporizhzhia sector, prioritizing the elimination of enemy lodgments in Stepnohirsk.
• Internal Security: SBU successful prosecution of a collaborator in Pokrovsk (16:53) indicates effective counter-intelligence operations in high-pressure logistics hubs.
• Diplomatic Readiness: Umerov’s statement (16:37) suggests a unified front with NATO/Partners, likely aimed at pre-empting any Russian "peace" disinformation campaigns during the current escalation.

Information environment / disinformation

• Surrender Narratives: Russian "Voin DV" channels are pushing specific surrender instructions for ZSU units in Zaporizhzhia. This is a classic indicator of an upcoming or stalling RU offensive where they hope to minimize resistance.
• False Flag/Atrocity Framing: Russian claims of UAF drone strikes on children in Kherson (16:49, TASS, LOW) appear to be standard narrative construction to justify retaliatory ballistic strikes.
• US Domestic Exploitation: Russian state media continues to push manufactured scandals regarding US officials (Epstein links, 16:45) to distract Western audiences and erode trust in the US administration.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA: Ballistic impacts in the Kyiv or northern regions within the next 2-4 hours, targeting C2 nodes or remaining energy distribution hubs.
• MDCOA: A coordinated ground assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Stepnohirsk/Vozdvizhivka) following the current PSYOPS and ballistic prep fire.
• Technical Expectation: Further degradation of Russian domestic internet access as "Sovereign Internet" tests expand to suppress reporting of the escalating conflict.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Confirm launch sites and missile types for the 16:57 ballistic threat (Iskander-M vs. KN-23).
2. [HIGH] Monitor 81st Airmobile Brigade's AO near Zakitne to see if RU infantry crossings have expanded following the diversionary Sumy probing.
3. [MEDIUM] Assess the operational readiness of the newly delivered Lanza LTR-25; verify if it is being deployed to cover the Siversk or Zaporizhzhia axes.

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IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW The battlefield geometry is shifting from localized skirmishes to a centralized, high-intensity ballistic campaign. The nationwide power restrictions starting tomorrow will severely limit UAF repair and sustainment facilities.

IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS Russia is employing a multi-layered approach: domestic information isolation (YouTube blocks), frontline PSYOPS (surrender appeals), and strategic kinetic strikes (ballistics). The reliance on ballistic missiles indicates a desire for rapid, high-impact results to capitalize on the "Deep Freeze" environment.

IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES Ukraine remains tactically resilient in the south (Stepnohirsk) and is successfully integrating Western sensor tech (Lanza LTR-25). However, the synchronization of the "negotiation track" (16:37) suggests the political leadership is preparing for a period of high-intensity pressure that may require diplomatic maneuvering.

IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT Russia is attempting to create a "sealed environment" domestically to prevent "leaks" from the front, while simultaneously targeting Ukrainian soldiers directly with surrender instructions via Telegram. This dual-track info-war is at its highest intensity since the winter began.

IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS The next 12 hours will be defined by the success or failure of Ukrainian AD against the current ballistic wave. If the grid takes further hits, the industrial restrictions announced for Feb 11 may be extended, impacting defense production.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//