ASSASSINATION PLOT ESCALATION: (11:14, TASS, HIGH) FSB detained a third suspect, Pavel Vasin (b. 1981), in the plot against LTG Vladimir Alekseev. Vasin allegedly provided transport and technical surveillance (trackers/video) for the cell.
TELEGRAM LEGAL REPRESSION: (11:28, TASS/Alex Parker Returns, HIGH) Russian authorities filed seven legal protocols against Telegram for "refusal to delete prohibited content," signaling a formal transition from technical "slowing" to legal justification for potential platform-wide bans.
ODESA MISSILE STRIKE IN PROGRESS: (11:22, Air Force AFU, HIGH) High-speed "ballistic" targets detected inbound from the Black Sea toward Zatoka/Serhiivka and Prymorske.
KYIV HEATING CRISIS: (11:08, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH) Kyiv Mayor Klitschko confirms 1,100 high-rise buildings are without heat due to "critical damage" at the Darnytsia TPP following recent strikes.
CASUALTY EVACUATION IN RU TERRITORY: (11:07, 80th Air Assault Brigade, MEDIUM) UAF 80th Brigade confirms ongoing complex tactical withdrawals and CASEVAC operations from Russian territory (Kursk sector), highlighting high-intensity combat.
REAR AREA INSTABILITY: (11:03, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM) An armed confrontation occurred in a Mariupol cafe ("Zov") between the owner and Rosgvardia units.
IPB 1: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains dominated by the "Deep Freeze" (-27°C) and a transition from reconnaissance to kinetic engagement. The damage to the Darnytsia TPP in Kyiv creates a critical vulnerability in urban survival, while the Russian reconnaissance surge noted at 10:36Z has culminated in active missile launches against Odesa.
Battlefield Geometry: UAF forces are conducting managed withdrawals in the Northern (Kursk) sector to preserve combat power.
Weather Factor: Extreme cold is forcing both sides to prioritize climate-controlled logistics, but Russian units are resorting to public fundraising for basic winter survival gear (11:08, DNR Militia), indicating sustainment gaps.
IPB 2: ENEMY ANALYSIS
Internal Security/C2: The detention of a third suspect (Pavel Vasin) in the Alekseev plot indicates a deep-seated infiltration of the RU MoD by elements allegedly linked to the SBU. This is driving paranoia within the Russian high command.
Communication Degradation: The legal assault on Telegram is viewed by RU military bloggers as a "catastrophe" for frontline communication (11:13, Filolog v zasade), as many units rely on the app for unofficial C2.
Course of Action (COA): RU is currently prioritizing infrastructure destruction (Kyiv heating) and coastal strikes (Odesa) while the ground offensive in Zaporizhzhia (Zaliznychne) consolidates.
IPB 3: FRIENDLY FORCES
Tactical Posture: The 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade is effectively utilizing "heavy attack drones" (likely "Baba Yaga" variants or Gerbera-style equivalents) for nocturnal hunting of infantry (11:07, Operativnyi ZSU).
Withdrawal Operations: The 80th Air Assault Brigade is demonstrating high discipline in casualty management during withdrawals, suggesting that while terrain is being traded, unit cohesion remains intact.
Air Defense: Current focus is on the interception of ballistic/high-speed targets in the Southern (Odesa) and North-Eastern corridors.
IPB 4: INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Domestic RU Narrative: State media is shifting focus from frontline reports to "victories" by the FSB (Alekseev plot) and internal stability meetings between Putin and Golikova (11:26, TASS) to project a sense of normalcy despite the "Deep Freeze."
Belarus Hybrid Threat: Rybar is actively pushing a narrative of a "Western-backed coup" in Belarus (11:05), likely a precursor to justifying the deployment of additional RU reserves to the northern border or integrating Belarusian units into the "Special Military Operation."
IPB 5: PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): A sustained missile and drone bombardment of Odesa port infrastructure and energy nodes will continue over the next 6 hours to exploit the high density of reconnaissance UAVs previously deployed.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A total breakdown of RU-mil-blogger communication via Telegram could lead to "friendly fire" incidents or localized RU collapses as unofficial C2 fails, potentially prompting a frantic RU escalation to "freeze" the frontline.
Timeline: Continued ballistic threats likely through 102100Z FEB 26.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Darnytsia TPP; determine if "critical damage" is repairable within a 48-hour window given the -27°C temperature.
[HIGH] SIGINT monitoring of RU tactical frequencies to see if units are transitioning from Telegram to unencrypted or legacy radio comms.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the casualty count/origin of the Rosgvardia shooting in Mariupol to assess internal RU discipline.
