CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (ODESA): (07:49, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) A DTEK energy facility in the Odesa region sustained significant damage following a Russian strike, further straining the regional grid during the "Deep Freeze."
SURGE IN RECONNAISSANCE UAVs: (07:45, Air Force ZSU, HIGH) Enemy reconnaissance drones are active over Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. These are assessed as spotters for imminent strikes.
AIR DEFENSE LOSS (DNIPROPETROVSK): (07:32, Kotsnews, MEDIUM) Russian sources provided video evidence of the destruction of a Ukrainian "Buk" air defense system in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
RUSSIAN "RETREAT" NARRATIVE: (08:00, RBK-Ukraine/ISW, MEDIUM) ISW reports Russia may be utilizing disinformation regarding a "Ukrainian counteroffensive" to provide domestic justification for tactical retreats.
C2 DEGRADATION (RUSSIA): (07:41, Colonelcassad, HIGH) Sustained Telegram outages in Russia are forcing prominent military influencers to migrate to alternative platforms (e.g., MAX), likely disrupting informal tactical communication channels.
HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC VISIT: (07:42, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Moldovan Prime Minister Munтяну has arrived in Ukraine for an official visit, signaling regional alignment despite Russian pressure.
TACTICAL TRAINING (ZAPORIZHZHIA): (07:44, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH) Patrol Police in Zaporizhzhia have commenced specialized training to intercept FPV drones targeting critical infrastructure.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "Deep Battle" focus on energy infrastructure and air defense suppression. Temperatures remain at critical lows (-27°C), making energy infrastructure the decisive terrain. Russia has shifted from broad strikes to targeted reconnaissance-led engagements, likely preparing for a larger coordinated wave.
Weather: Extreme cold persists; battery life for UAVs is reduced, and thermal signatures of vehicles/positions are highly visible.
Control Measures: UAF has intensified counter-reconnaissance efforts in four key sectors (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/COA: The surge in reconnaissance UAVs (07:45) across the southern and northern sectors indicates a target-acquisition phase. This follows the observed lull in activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (noted in previous reports), suggesting that munitions moved from storage are now being assigned to specific coordinates provided by these drones.
Tactical Changes: Russian forces are successfully targeting UAF mobile AD assets (Buk) in the rear (Dnipropetrovsk), likely using a combination of "Gerbera" motherships and long-range loitering munitions.
Information Operations: The "retreat narrative" identified by ISW suggests the Russian command is managing expectations for potential losses in the Southern Sector, where UAF recently retook Ternuvate.
Logistics/Morale: The ongoing Vladivostok TPP fire (08:00) and the federal search for Zinaida Serebritskaya (07:50) highlight persistent internal security and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Structural Optimization: General Syrskyi confirmed that the "Corps Reform" is directly contributing to increased enemy attrition rates (07:57), indicating improved synchronization between intelligence and fires.
Southern Sector: UAF Southern Command reports the destruction of 1 tank and 44 vehicles in the last 24 hours (07:34). The high number of soft-skinned vehicle losses suggests successful FPV interdiction of Russian logistical "Bukhanka" vans in the snow.
Defensive Posture: New training for Zaporizhzhia Patrol Police on counter-FPV tactics (07:44) demonstrates an adaptation to the "mothership" UAV threat identified in Sumy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Service Disruption: Telegram's instability in Russia (07:41) is a double-edged sword; it degrades Russian tactical C2 but also limits UAF's ability to monitor Russian mil-blogger intelligence in real-time.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Reports of an "accelerated EU track" (07:38) and Macron's statements on European security (07:48) are being weaponized by Russian state media (TASS) to reinforce narratives of Western escalation or "unrealistic" Ukrainian expectations.
PsyOps: Russian sources are actively promoting "victory" footage (e.g., Rusyn Yar mortar strike, 07:59) to counter reports of officer losses (07:58).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): A coordinated missile and Shahed/KAB strike within the next 6-12 hours targeting the energy nodes in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia, guided by the current recon UAV surge.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Expansion of the energy-warfare campaign to include Western Ukraine’s transit hubs, timed with the peak of the freeze to induce a humanitarian crisis and disrupt Moldovan-Ukrainian diplomatic logistics.
Timeline: Expected strike window 101800Z to 110400Z.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Locate and neutralize the "Gerbera" mothership control stations in the Sumy/Kharkiv border regions.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the Odesa DTEK facility—specifically, the estimated time to restore power to local water/heating pumps.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian troop movements in the South for signs of the "ISW-predicted retreat"—confirm if units are repositioning or merely rotating.
[LOW] Assess the technical specifications of the MQ-35A V-BAT transferred to Armenia to determine if similar surveillance technology is likely to appear in the Ukrainian theater via third-party transfers.
