Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-02-10T03:33:20Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• INCREASED TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY: (03:05, 03:07, UA Air Force, HIGH) KAB glide bomb launches confirmed targeting both Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, ending the brief period of kinetic silence noted in the 03:03Z report.
• UAV THREAT TO KHARKIV: (03:06, UA Air Force, HIGH) New wave of loitering munitions (Shahed/Geran-type) detected inbound to Kharkiv city.
• SPECIFIC COMMANDER TARGETING: (03:31, ТАСС, MEDIUM) Russian state media has publicly named Colonel Savchenko (Commander, 107th Reactive Artillery Brigade, UAF) as the officer responsible for strikes on Bryansk. This likely precedes targeted kinetic or "wet work" attempts against unit leadership.
• SUMY SECTOR STRIKE: (03:04, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian "North" grouping claimed a precision UAV strike on UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) in Sukhodol, Sumy Oblast, reportedly destroying two shelters.
• POW NARRATIVE SABOTAGE: (03:13, ТАСС, HIGH) Russian information operations have transitioned from domestic "normalcy" to active disinformation, using a purported former UAF soldier ("Sova") to claim Kyiv is sabotaging prisoner exchanges.
• NUCLEAR POSTURING: (03:05, ТАСС, MEDIUM) Russian UN Representative Nebenzia stated Russia will act "responsibly" despite the expiration of the New START (DSNV) treaty, a strategic signaling move following the UAF deep-strike drone swarm.

Operational picture (by sector)

• Northern Sector (Sumy/Bryansk): The sector is heating up. Russia is focusing on counter-battery narratives and precision strikes on shelters (Sukhodol). The public naming of the 107th Brigade commander suggests Russia is attempting to establish a "legal" pretext for intensified strikes in the Sumy border region.
• Eastern Sector (Donbas): KAB strikes resumed at 03:07Z. High-volume artillery remains the primary Russian tool near Pokrovsk, supported by the "Gerbera" mothership UAVs mentioned in the daily report.
• Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Renewed KAB activity (03:05Z) indicates Russian aviation is maintaining a high sortie rate despite -27°C temperatures. The ballistic threat from 02:10Z remains unconfirmed but should be treated as active until "all clear" is issued.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Aviation Surge: The simultaneous KAB launches in the South and East suggest a coordinated tactical aviation "pulse" intended to overwhelm local AD while UAVs (03:06Z) pressure the Kharkiv AD node.
• Leadership Targeting: The naming of Colonel Savchenko is a classic Russian "Information-Kinetic" sequence. By naming a specific commander, they justify subsequent strikes on command nodes as "punitive" or "counter-terrorist."
• Hybrid Maneuvers: Russia is using diplomatic statements (Nebenzia on DSNV) to project strategic stability while domestic news (anti-corruption stats, 03:17Z) attempts to show a functioning, reforming state apparatus to the internal audience.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is engaged in multi-target tracking across Kharkiv (UAVs) and the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk axis (KABs).
• Logistics Under Pressure: The naming of the 107th Brigade suggests that UAF rocket artillery units in Sumy are under high-priority ELINT/SIGINT surveillance by Russian forces.

Information environment / disinformation

• "The Saboteur" Narrative: The TASS report (03:13Z) regarding POW exchange "sabotage" is a clear attempt to incite internal unrest among Ukrainian families of POWs and degrade trust in the UAF command.
• Strategic Deception: The shift from "elevator warranties" (02:35Z) to "Strategic Nuclear Responsibility" (03:05Z) suggests the Kremlin has moved from a "ignore the war" posture back to a "responsible superpower" posture within the span of one hour.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB/UAV pulses throughout the morning. Russia will likely release "Battle Damage Assessment" (BDA) footage from the Sukhodol strike to bolster the "North" grouping's effectiveness.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The 260th GRAU Arsenal munitions (previously noted as moved) are utilized in a coordinated cruise/ballistic missile strike during the 04:00Z-06:00Z window, synchronized with the current UAV/KAB "shaping" strikes.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Verification of the status of 107th Reactive Artillery Brigade command elements in Sumy following the RU "naming" operation.
2. [HIGH] BDA on the 03:04Z Sukhodol strike—confirm if "shelters" were operational UAF assets or civilian infrastructure.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor for 04:00Z "Morning Summary" from Russian mil-bloggers (e.g., Two Majors) for specific tactical gains or new axes of advance in the Pokrovsk sector.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

The tactical situation has transitioned from a quiet "holding pattern" into a multi-sector aerial offensive. While ground movement is likely still restricted by the -27°C "Deep Freeze," the use of standoff munitions (KABs) and long-range UAVs is accelerating.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

Enemy forces are demonstrating high coordination between media outlets and kinetic strikes. The sequence of: (1) Naming a commander -> (2) Striking his sector (Sumy) -> (3) Releasing "POW sabotage" propaganda suggests a highly synchronized PSYOP/Kinetic operation.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

UAF forces are currently in a reactive posture. The 107th Brigade and units in the Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia sectors must maintain high mobility to avoid the tactical aviation "pulses" currently being executed.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

The Russian narrative has moved from "Domestic Normalcy" to "State Responsibility & External Blame." This pivot suggests they have stabilized their internal messaging after the 69-drone swarm and are now focusing on delegitimizing UAF leadership.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The 03:31Z "naming" of Colonel Savchenko is a High Confidence indicator of an impending high-value target (HVT) strike mission in the Sumy/Bryansk border area. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATION: Disperse command nodes and implement strict EMCON (Emission Control) for 107th Brigade units immediately.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//