KINETIC STRIKE - DNIPRO: (21:47, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Explosions reported in Dnipro following reports of UAVs (Shahed/Geran) transiting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast toward Yavornitske.
AERIAL THREAT - ZAPORIZHZHIA: (21:46, UA Air Force, HIGH) Repeated launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) by Russian tactical aviation targeting the Zaporizhzhia sector.
AERIAL THREAT - KHARKIV: (21:50, UA Air Force, HIGH) UAVs detected in southern and eastern Kharkiv Oblast, currently on a northern heading.
C2 TURMOIL - UAF (UNCONFIRMED): (21:35, Voenkor Kotenko, LOW) Pro-Russian sources claim Commander-in-Chief Syrsky has removed Manko, the Commander of UAF Assault Forces. This remains uncorroborated by official UA sources.
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING - ARMENIA: (21:46, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM) Reports of a $11 million US drone delivery to Armenia announced by VP Vance during a visit to Yerevan; signals a significant shift in the CSTO/South Caucasus security architecture.
SANCTIONS ESCALATION - GEORGIA: (21:34, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM) EU is reportedly considering sanctions against Georgia for facilitating Russian energy export bypasses.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY - EU/UKRAINE: (21:57, TASS/Bloomberg, MEDIUM) EU sources indicate the drafting of peace agreement frameworks that would legally codify Ukraine’s EU membership.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment remains dominated by the "Deep Freeze" (-27°C), but kinetic activity is intensifying in the air domain. Russian forces are focusing on multi-vector UAV and KAB strikes across the southern and eastern belts.
Battlefield Geometry: Frontline updates reported by DeepState (22:01) suggest localized shifts. Combined with air activity, this indicates Russian pressure on the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia axis.
Weather: Extreme cold continues to limit major mechanized maneuvers, favoring stand-off strikes (KABs/UAVs) and infantry-led "meat assaults" if conditions allow.
Air Operations: Russia is maintaining a high sortie rate for tactical aviation in the South (Zaporizhzhia) using KABs, which are difficult to intercept. The UAV vectors toward Dnipro and Yavornitske suggest a coordinated effort to hit logistics or C2 nodes behind the immediate line of contact.
Diplomatic/Hybrid: The Russian MoD and MfA are pushing a "non-aggression" narrative (Grushko, 21:45) to present Europe as the obstacle to peace. Simultaneously, Lavrov’s outreach to Cuba and Venezuela (21:35) reinforces Russia's intent to maintain global "spoiler" capabilities.
Tactical Adaptation: The focus on UAVs in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk suggests the 60th Radio-Technical Regiment (highlighted in previous daily report) is successfully providing targeting data for these deep-penetration attempts.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking) (IPB Step 3)
Command & Control: If the removal of Manko (21:35) is confirmed, it suggests a potential shake-up in assault doctrine or a response to the "deteriorating" situation near Pokrovsk mentioned in the previous 24h context.
Air Defense: UAF AD is actively engaged in the Dnipro and Kharkiv sectors. The arrival of UAVs on a northern heading in Kharkiv indicates a need for mobile fire group repositioning.
Morale/Psychological: Official channels are leaning into the memorialization of fallen athletes (21:45) to maintain domestic cohesion and international sympathy during the infrastructure-heavy "Deep Freeze."
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain) (IPB Step 4)
Russian Narrative: Pro-Russian milbloggers are aggressively framing UAF personnel changes as a sign of imminent collapse.
Western Support: The US-Armenia drone deal is being used by Russian commentators to mock the ODKB (CSTO) and signal a loss of Russian regional hegemony.
EU Integration: Positive signaling from Bloomberg regarding Ukraine’s EU membership being "locked" into peace deals serves as a counter-narrative to Russian "security guarantee" demands.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Over the next 6-12 hours, Russia will continue "pulsing" UAV waves toward Dnipro and Kharkiv to exhaust AD magazines before a potential larger missile wave (consistent with the munitions movement detected at the 260th GRAU Arsenal).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated KAB surge in the Zaporizhzhia sector coinciding with a localized ground breakthrough, attempting to exploit any C2 confusion resulting from the rumored leadership changes in UAF Assault Forces.
Timeline: 22:00Z – 04:00Z: Peak window for UAV impact and potential secondary missile strikes.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Confirm/Deny the dismissal of Commander Manko via official MoD/General Staff channels.
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets of the Dnipro explosions (Energy infrastructure vs. Military C2).
[HIGH] Analyze the DeepState map update (22:01Z) to identify specific coordinate shifts in the Zakitne or Huliaipole areas.
[MEDIUM] Assess the operational status of the Armenian border following the drone deal announcement to see if Russian "peacekeepers" are altering posture.
