Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-02-09T06:33:20Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (VOLYN): (06:22, RBK-Ukraine/Mayor of Novovolynsk, HIGH) Russian forces conducted a night strike on an energy facility in Novovolynsk, Volyn region (Western Ukraine), expanding the "freeze" campaign toward the Polish border.
• BORDER INCURSION ATTEMPT (KHARKIV): (06:32, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM) UAF forces reportedly repelled a Russian attempt to break the state border in the vicinity of Chuhuivka, Kharkiv region.
• ALEKSEEV INVESTIGATION DEVELOPMENTS: (06:04-06:32, TASS/FSB/Colonelcassad, HIGH) FSB reports that suspects Lyubomir Korba and Viktor Vasin have confessed. Allegations now include a $30,000 total bounty, $2,000 monthly retainers since December 2025, and a female participant fleeing to Istanbul/Kyiv.
• OPERATIONAL SHIFT IN DONBAS: (06:06-06:11, Zvizdets Mangustu, MEDIUM) Russian command is assessed to be planning a "double operational envelopment" of the Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka agglomeration to facilitate an advance on Kramatorsk.
• CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (KHARKIV): (06:18, Tsaplienko, HIGH) A Russian drone strike in the Kharkiv region killed a woman and a 10-year-old boy; search and rescue operations confirmed the fatalities under rubble.
• CONTINUED MOSCOW CITY THREAT: (06:09, ASTRA, MEDIUM) Security alerts and bomb threats persist at the Neva Towers in Moscow City, maintaining psychological pressure on the Russian capital's financial hub.

Operational picture (by sector)

Western Ukraine (Volyn/Novovolynsk): The strike on energy infrastructure in Novovolynsk (06:27, Operativnyi ZSU) indicates a shift in Russian long-range targeting to include Western Ukraine’s energy nodes. This likely aims to disrupt the regional grid stability and test air defenses near the Polish border following Russian allegations of Polish involvement in the Alekseev hit.

Northern/Kharkiv Sector: The situation on the state border remains volatile. The repelled incursion near Chuhuivka (06:32) suggests Russia is maintaining pressure on the border to pin UAF reserves away from the Donbas. The use of drones for lethal strikes on residential buildings (06:18) confirms a high-tempo "terror-bombing" pattern in the tactical rear.

Eastern Sector (Donbas): Analysis indicates a refined Russian objective: the encirclement of Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka (06:11, Zvizdets Mangustu). The plan involves seizing Konstantinovka first while simultaneously reaching the approaches of Druzhkovka to force a UAF withdrawal under threat of pocketing. If this fail by late spring, a significant Russian operational redesign for the summer campaign is expected.

Russian Rear (Moscow/Belgorod): Moscow remains in a state of heightened alert. The FSB's rapid release of "confession" videos (06:30, TASS) is a classic information operation to project competence. However, the ongoing bomb threats at Neva Towers (06:09) suggest that Russian internal security (Rosgvardia/FSB) is struggling to neutralize active disruption cells or coordinated swatting campaigns.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Capabilities & Intentions: Russia is effectively integrating kinetic strikes (Volyn energy facility) with a massive psychological/information operation (Alekseev confessions). The naming of "Istanbul" and "Dubai" as transit points for the assassins (06:29, Colonelcassad) suggests an intent to put diplomatic pressure on neutral third-party states used by Ukraine for logistics or intelligence transit.

Tactical Adaptations: The attempt to breach the border at Chuhuivka (06:32) marks a transition from purely indirect fire (artillery/drones) to small-unit ground incursions, likely intended for reconnaissance-in-force or sabotage.

Logistics & Sustainment: Russian propaganda is increasingly focusing on domestic industry (e.g., Apple CarPlay integration in LADA at 06:26) to project a sense of "normalcy" and economic resilience despite the ongoing infrastructure crisis in Belgorod.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Posture: UAF border units in Kharkiv demonstrate high readiness, successfully detecting and repelling the Chuhuivka incursion. In the Western sector, emergency crews are responding to the Novovolynsk strike to mitigate grid failure.

Resource Requirements:

• Air Defense: The strike in Volyn underscores the critical need for point-defense systems around Western Ukrainian energy hubs.
• EW/C-UAS: Continued drone strikes on civilian targets in Kharkiv necessitate increased mobile EW coverage.

Information environment / disinformation

Russian Narrative Trends:

1. The "International Terror" Narrative: FSB claims of $2,000/month salaries and $30,000 bounties (06:31) are designed to frame Ukrainian intelligence (SBU/GUR) as a "mercenary-terrorist" organization.
2. Western Advocacy as Threat: Russian channels (06:24, Dva Mayora) are framing standard Ukrainian-American political advocacy as "subversive manuals," attempting to delegitimize Western financial aid.

Ukrainian Information Focus: Focus remains on documenting Russian war crimes (e.g., child fatality in Kharkiv at 06:18) and maintaining transparency regarding infrastructure damage.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will likely continue the high-tempo UAV and missile strikes on energy targets, specifically focusing on the Western and Central regions to exacerbate the "deep freeze" crisis. Expect more FSB "leaks" regarding the Alekseev hit to dominate Russian domestic media.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces may conduct a multi-vector ground assault in the Kharkiv border region (building on the Chuhuivka attempt) to force UAF to redeploy heavy brigades from the Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka axis.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Determine the specific extent of damage at the Novovolynsk energy facility. Will it impact power transit to/from Poland?
2. [HIGH] Confirm the strength and composition of the Russian unit involved in the Chuhuivka border incursion. Was this a localized raid or part of a larger troop concentration?
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor for any signs of "retaliation strikes" targeting Ukrainian government buildings (Kyiv) following the FSB's publicized confessions.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//