Situation Report

Situation Update (2026-02-09T05:33:20Z)

Key updates since last sitrep

• SERIAL FPV AMMUNITION PRODUCTION: (05:04, РБК-Україна, HIGH) Imagery confirms Russia is transitioning from improvised to factory-scale production of FPV drone munitions. This indicates a move toward standardized, higher-reliability tactical strike capabilities and improved logistical sustainment for drone units.
• DEEP REAR UAV PENETRATION: (05:06, 05:25, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian loitering munitions have been tracked into Western Ukraine, specifically Rivne Oblast (heading West) and Northern Ternopil Oblast (heading South).
• EXTREME ARTILLERY INTENSITY (ZAPORIZHZHIA): (05:10, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH) Russian forces conducted 499 strikes across 24 settlements in the oblast over the last 24 hours, representing a significant volume of fire despite the deep-freeze conditions (-27°C).
• AERIAL MODERNIZATION: (05:26, TASS, MEDIUM) Rostec reports delivery of a new batch of Su-57 (5th Gen) fighters in a "new technical appearance." While the quantity remains unspecified, this reflects a continuing effort to modernize the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) despite sanctions.
• KRYVYI RIH STATUS: (05:32, Oleksandr Vilkul, HIGH) The situation in the Kryvyi Rih sector remains "controlled" as of the morning of Feb 9.

Operational picture (by sector)

Western Ukraine (Rivne/Ternopil): New UAV flight paths indicate an attempt by Russian forces to bypass central air defenses to target logistical hubs or energy infrastructure in the far west. One UAV was spotted passing Ostrozhets (Rivne) on a westerly course (05:06), and another in Northern Ternopil heading South (05:25).

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The Zaporizhzhia sector is under heavy kinetic pressure with 499 recorded strikes (05:10). This volume of fire is likely intended to suppress UAF movement and compensate for the difficulty of ground maneuvers in the -27°C weather. In Dnipro, a UAV was reported approaching from the north (05:15), suggesting a coordinated multi-axis drone strike.

Central Sector (Kryvyi Rih): The region remains stable under defensive posture, with local C2 reporting a "controlled" environment (05:32) despite the broader regional air threats.

Russian Rear (Lipetsk/Moscow): A "Yellow Level" threat was rescinded in Lipetsk (05:25), suggesting Russian authorities believe the immediate threat from the previous 55-drone wave has subsided or been mitigated.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Capabilities & Intentions: The shift to industrial production of FPV munitions (05:04) is a critical adaptation. It suggests Russia is moving away from the "volunteer/crowdfunded" model of drone sustainment toward a centralized military-industrial integration. This will likely increase the lethality and consistency of Russian tactical drone strikes in the coming weeks.

Tactical Adaptations: The use of Su-57s in a "new technical appearance" (05:26) may involve upgraded EW suites or long-range standoff missile capabilities (e.g., Kh-69). If integrated with the new factory-produced FPVs, Russia is attempting to bridge the technological gap in precision-guided munitions.

Logistics & Sustainment: While the "Starlink Gap" (noted in previous sitrep) remains a vulnerability for Russian tactical C2, the delivery of new aircraft and munitions production indicates that high-level industrial sustainment is still functional.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Tactical Posture: UAF air defense remains highly active, tracking and engaging deep-penetration UAVs across Rivne and Ternopil. The "all clear" in Zaporizhzhia (05:06) suggests successful interception or the end of a specific strike wave in that oblast.

Resource Requirements: With Russia scaling industrial FPV production, UAF requirements for localized EW (electronic warfare) and "jamming-resistant" drone components will increase to maintain the current parity in the drone war.

Information environment / disinformation

Russian Narrative Trends:

1. Mobilization Discredit: State media (TASS, 05:12) is circulating POW videos claiming Ukraine is mobilizing personnel with HIV and Hepatitis. This is a classic "Black PR" campaign aimed at demoralizing the UAF and questioning the viability of Ukrainian reserves.
2. Normalcy/Distraction: Russian local channels (05:08) are pushing consumerist Valentine's Day content to project a sense of societal stability despite the "deep freeze" and cross-border drone strikes.
3. External Destabilization: Rybar (05:27) is focusing on UK political scandals (Mandelson/Epstein), likely an effort to distract from the GRU leadership hit (Alekseev) and foster distrust in Western political structures.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the UAV "harassment" of Western Ukraine to fix UAF air defense assets away from the front lines. High-intensity artillery fire in Zaporizhzhia will persist as the primary method of engagement while ground temperatures prevent large-scale mechanized movement.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike involving the newly delivered Su-57s using long-range munitions to target "decision-making centers" or nuclear power infrastructure, as a direct retaliation for the Alekseev (GRU) strike.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Verify the specific "technical appearance" of the Su-57 batch. Does it include the new AL-51F1 engines or integrated control for "S-70 Okhotnik" wingmen?
2. [HIGH] Locate the production facilities for the new serial FPV munitions (05:04) for potential deep-strike targeting.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor for further reports of "Starlink blocking" on the Russian side to determine if this is a systemic technical failure or a localized EW success.

//ANALYSIS ENDS//