Situation Update (2026-02-08T23:33:20Z)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DEEP PENETRATION UAV THREAT - WESTERN UKRAINE: (23:17–23:29, UA Air Force, HIGH) A significant shift in aerial geometry. Shahed-type UAVs are transiting Ternopil and northern Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts on a direct heading toward the Lviv region.
- MULTI-VECTOR PROBES - CENTRAL UKRAINE: (23:20–23:24, UA Air Force, HIGH) Active UAV groups detected in Poltava (heading Pyryatyn/Northwest) and Cherkasy (heading Korsun-Shevchenkivskyi).
- CONTRADICTORY STRIKE REPORTS - ODESA: (23:03, Colonelcassad, LOW) Russian sources claim a secondary "Geran" (Shahed) impact in Odesa shortly after local authorities/intercept tracking declared the area clear (22:56). Currently UNCONFIRMED; may be delayed footage or a secondary wave.
- REAR AREA STRIKE - DNIPROPETROVSK: (23:17, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Claims of a successful strike on a UAF deployment point in Shakhtarske. Visual evidence is circulating but unverified by independent ground sensors.
- NGO-LED LOGISTICS: (23:29, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) The Russian NGO "MOO VECHE" confirmed a new equipment delivery to "SVO" units, highlighting the continued reliance on non-state actors to supplement front-line sustainment.
- TACTICAL DRONE DIVERSITY: (23:32, Voin DV, MEDIUM) Reports indicate the employment of a wide array of FPV and loitering munitions (VT-40, Molniya-2, Utka-2) against UAF positions, suggesting high tactical drone density despite the freeze.
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Sector (Lviv/Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk):
This is now the primary focus of the air defense (AD) effort. UAVs are utilizing southern corridors to bypass central AD clusters, moving from Ternopil/Ivano-Frankivsk toward Lviv (23:29, UA Air Force). This indicates an attempt to strike logistics hubs or transit infrastructure near the Polish border.
Central Sector (Poltava/Cherkasy):
UAVs are maintaining a northwest heading toward Pyryatyn and Korsun-Shevchenkivskyi (23:20, 23:24, UA Air Force). This suggests a staggered approach to keep the air alert active over the central energy grid.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk):
While the major wave was previously considered neutralized, reports of a strike in Shakhtarske (23:17) and unconfirmed claims of a secondary hit in Odesa (23:03) suggest the Russian forces are attempting to catch AD units during their "reset" phase.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Kinetic activity remains localized to FPV drone strikes. Russian "Voin DV" sources are showcasing a variety of tactical drones (VT-40, Molniya-2), indicating that sub-zero temperatures (-27°C) have not yet grounded small-unit loitering munitions (23:32, Voin DV).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has transitioned into a "Deep Air Battle." Following the initial saturation attempt in Odesa, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have pivoted to a wide-area dispersal strategy. UAVs are now active across the Western, Central, and Southern sectors simultaneously. The weather remains a critical factor, with both sides utilizing drones as the primary means of maintaining pressure while ground maneuver is frozen.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
- Aerial Courses of Action: The enemy is employing a "leaping" tactic—hitting Odesa, then immediately pushing into the deep west (Lviv). This forces UAF AD to stay in a state of constant high alert, preventing the rotation of crews.
- Tactical Innovation: The use of "Molniya-2" and "Utka-2" drones (23:32, Voin DV) suggests a diverse tactical inventory designed for different range and payload requirements. The "Molniya-2" in particular is known for its increased range compared to standard FPVs.
- Sustainment: The involvement of the "VECHE" NGO (23:29) indicates that Russian regular logistics may still be struggling with the extreme cold, necessitating "last-mile" delivery of cold-weather gear or specialized electronics by volunteer organizations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
- Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is currently engaged in the Western corridor. The rapid identification of UAVs in Ternopil and Cherkasy (23:24, 23:29) demonstrates high radar sensitivity, though the wide dispersal of targets is likely intended to deplete interceptor stocks.
- Readiness: High alert remains in effect for the Lviv/Ternopil logistics hubs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
- Contradictory Narratives: Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are aggressively pushing "strike success" videos (Odesa, Shakhtarske) to counter Ukrainian claims of high intercept rates.
- NGO PR: Russian media is increasingly highlighting the role of civilian organizations in the "SVO," likely to bolster domestic support and mask the systemic failures in state logistics during the cold snap.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The UAV group currently over Ivano-Frankivsk/Ternopil will attempt to strike energy or rail infrastructure in the Lviv region within the next 60–90 minutes.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "follow-on" cruise missile strike utilizing the gaps created by the current UAV dispersal, potentially targeting Kyiv or Odesa while western AD assets are occupied.
- Logistics: Expect further Russian FPV footage as a substitute for ground gains, aiming to project an image of "constant pressure" despite the freeze.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Western Ukraine: Critical window for air defense engagement in Lviv and Ternopil.
- Central Ukraine: Continued UAV activity in Poltava and Cherkasy; potential for these units to merge or split to confuse tracking.
- Operational Tempo: Ground operations will remain static due to the -27°C temperature, but air/drone strikes will intensify.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Verify the "Geran" strike in Odesa (23:03). Determine if this was a new launch or a surviving unit from the earlier wave.
- [HIGH] Confirm the nature of the "Shakhtarske" target (23:17). If a deployment point was hit, identify the unit affected and the level of attrition.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the loitering time of the UAVs in the West. Are they equipped with new heaters or batteries to extend flight time in extreme cold?
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
