SECOND BALLISTIC WAVE & IMPACTS: (19:11, Tsaplienko/Opera Z, HIGH) A second volley of Iskander-M missiles targeted Vasylkiv airbase. Russian sources claim a total of 9-10 missiles impacted the facility this evening (19:32, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
BALLISTIC THREAT TERMINATED: (19:27, UA Air Force, HIGH) The immediate threat of ballistic weapon usage has been cleared for all regions.
UAV INCURSIONS (SOUTHERN/EASTERN VECTORS): (19:07-19:10, UA Air Force, HIGH) Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs are active. Group 1: Mykolaiv region heading toward Odesa. Group 2: Western Kharkiv region heading toward Poltava.
FSB LINK TO GRU ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: (19:12, ASTRA/Grozev, MEDIUM-HIGH) Investigative journalist Christo Grozev reports that one participant in the assassination attempt on GRU Deputy Head Lt. Gen. Alekseev was an employee of an FSB-affiliated company, reinforcing the "inter-service conflict" hypothesis.
TACTICAL SUCCESS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA: (19:21, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM) Ukrainian forces have reportedly cleared the settlement of Ternuvate (Zaporizhzhia region) of Russian occupiers.
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: (19:18, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH) Severe icing and road glaze reported in Kyiv; expected to degrade tactical mobility and logistics in the capital region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Vasylkiv):
The sector has transitioned from "Red" to "Amber" following the 19:27 all-clear. However, the Vasylkiv airbase remains a primary focus of Russian efforts. Russian mil-bloggers claim Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) was saturated and unable to intercept the second wave (19:31, Colonelcassad). Large-scale fires continue at the impact sites. Ground operations are hampered by severe icing on the roads (19:18).
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Krasnoarmeysk):
Russian forces are utilizing tactical UAVs to maintain pressure. The Russian MoD confirmed the use of "Molniya-2" fixed-wing attack drones against UAF positions in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction (19:27, MoD Russia). This indicates a high level of drone-driven attrition in the absence of major mechanized advances.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Tactical momentum appears in the UAF's favor near Ternuvate (19:21), suggesting localized counter-offensive actions. Conversely, the air threat is shifting; Odesa and Mykolaiv are currently under Shahed UAV alerts, likely intended to pressure port infrastructure or coastal AD batteries.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: Having completed the ballistic phase, the enemy is now utilizing "slow-air" assets (Shaheds) to probe secondary targets in Odesa and Poltava. The use of the "Molniya-2" UAV in the East suggests a continued reliance on low-cost, high-precision loitering munitions for tactical strikes.
C2 Instability: The confirmation of FSB links to the Alekseev hit (19:12) suggests significant internal instability within the Russian security apparatus. This intra-service friction may result in inconsistent intelligence sharing or disrupted special operations in the short term.
Ammunition Expenditure: The expenditure of ~10 Iskander-M missiles on a single airbase suggests a high-priority "denial of access" mission, likely aimed at preventing the deployment of Western-standard aviation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF AD remains active, though President Zelenskyy’s latest address (19:13) emphasizes a critical need for consistent resupply of ballistic interceptors, suggesting that the current intensity of Russian strikes is pushing magazine depth to the limit.
Offensive Actions: The liberation of Ternuvate (Zaporizhzhia) demonstrates that UAF retains the capability for localized offensive maneuvers despite the regional freeze and ballistic pressure on the rear.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Triumphalism: Russian channels are heavily amplifying footage of the Vasylkiv strikes (19:03, 19:31) to project an image of UAF air defense failure.
Strategic Distraction: Reports on the "Epstein Files" and "Salò Republic" (19:31, WarGonzo) are being circulated by Russian influencers, likely as "filler" or to distract the domestic audience from internal friction (FSB/GRU).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Transition to a Shahed-focused overnight campaign targeting the Odesa and Poltava axes. BDA efforts at Vasylkiv will be obscured by weather/icing, which Russia will exploit through continued propaganda claims of "total destruction."
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated "follow-on" cruise missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) launched from the Black Sea or Tu-95MS platforms to strike Vasylkiv or Kyiv while AD systems are reloading/resetting after the ballistic wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Satellite or drone imagery of Vasylkiv to verify the claim of "9-10 Iskander hits" vs. interceptions.
[HIGH] Monitoring of Russian naval assets in the Black Sea for potential Kalibr launches in the next 4-8 hours.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "Molniya-2" UAV deployment scale in the Krasnoarmeysk direction to assess its impact on UAF dugout/logistics security.
