CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LOSS (WESTERN SECTOR): (17:20, Colonelcassad, HIGH) Reports indicate the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (TPP) is completely out of service following recent strikes. There is no timeline for restart. This severely compromises the Western Ukrainian energy hub and interconnections with the EU grid.
EMERGENCY POWER GENERATION (KYIV): (17:20, РБК-Україна; 17:23, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Prime Minister Shmyhal announced the deployment of an additional 9 MW of generation capacity in Kyiv. While a tactical relief for critical C2 nodes, it represents a fraction of the city's deficit.
CROSS-BORDER INTERDICTION (BRYANSK): (17:27, ЦАПЛІЄНКО; 17:28, AV БогомаZ, MEDIUM) Ukrainian UAVs targeted and reportedly struck the "Novobryansk" electrical substation in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Russian AD claims two UAVs downed, but visual evidence suggests infrastructure impact.
REPORTED AD MUNITION SHORTAGE: (17:14, Операція Z/FT, MEDIUM) Russian channels are amplifying a Financial Times report claiming Ukraine has exhausted Patriot missile stocks during recent massive energy strikes.
INTERNAL THREAT WARNING (SOUTH RUSSIA): (17:16, НгП раZVедка, LOW) Russian tactical channels are warning of an imminent "mass launch" of Ukrainian UAVs toward southern Russian regions. UNCONFIRMED.
OPERATIONAL ADVANCE (KONSTANTINOVKA): (17:06, Рыбарь; 17:15, Старше Эдды, MEDIUM) Russian "Yug" (Southern) Grouping claims "methodical advancement" in the Kostiantynivka direction, supported by updated operational mapping.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kupyansk/Bryansk): The 125th Separate Motorized Brigade successfully interdicted a Russian propaganda-focused unit attempting to plant a flag near Kupyansk (17:06, Бутусов Плюс). Simultaneously, Ukraine has extended the "energy war" into the Russian rear with the strike on the Novobryansk substation, likely a tit-for-tat response to Ukrainian grid failures.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk): High-intensity combat persists near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. The Russian "Center" group is claiming FPV drone successes against Ukrainian armor and infantry (17:28, Операция Z). Ukrainian AD recorded a localized success by downing a Russian "Molniya" reconnaissance drone over Kostiantynivka (17:06, Оперативний ЗСУ).
Western Sector (Ivano-Frankivsk/Lviv): The loss of Burshtyn TPP (17:20) is a strategic blow. This facility is a key node for the "Burshtyn Island" grid that synchronizes with Europe; its failure increases the risk of a total national blackout as temperatures remain at -27°C.
Southern Sector: Relatively quiet kinetically in this window, though Russian forces remain on high alert for anticipated UAF long-range UAV strikes (17:16).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action: Russia is shifting from broad area bombardment to "precision systemic strangulation," targeting remaining TPPs (like Burshtyn) to ensure the grid cannot be balanced.
Adaptation: The use of "Molniya" drones for terminal guidance in Kostiantynivka indicates a refined tactical reconnaissance loop for the Russian "Yug" Grouping.
Internal Security: Investigation into the assassination attempt on Lt. Gen. Alekseev (GRU) suggests an "insider threat" profile, with the shooter allegedly being a long-term associate of a known accomplice (17:05, Старше Эдды). This may trigger a wider purge within the GRU, potentially disrupting current special operations coordination.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Maneuvering: UAF is increasingly relying on deep-strike UAV operations against Russian energy infrastructure (Bryansk) to force a diversion of Russian AD assets away from the front and to create reciprocal political pressure within Russia.
Resilience Measures: The deployment of mobile generation (9MW in Kyiv) suggests a shift toward a "micro-grid" strategy to preserve government and military C2 as the national macro-grid fails.
Counter-Reconnaissance: High success rate in local AD (Kostiantynivka) against tactical drones indicates that despite reported missile shortages, short-range AD (SHORAD) and EW remain effective.
Information environment / disinformation
Munition Scarcity Narrative: Russian state media is aggressively pushing the narrative of "empty Patriot tubes." This is likely timed to coincide with the national energy crisis to induce a "sense of defenselessness" among the Ukrainian populace.
Union State Consolidation: The Putin-Lukashenko call (17:16) serves as a signal of strategic depth and continued Belarusian logistical support, potentially hinting at renewed pressure from the North or further integration of AD systems.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Accelerated Russian pressure in the Kostiantynivka/Pokrovsk axis to exploit the psychological impact of the grid failure. Night-time temperatures (-27°C) will cause further non-kinetic damage to civilian and military heating systems.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated "Darkness Strike"—a multi-axis missile and Shahed wave targeting the remaining 750kV substations tonight to finish the grid collapse while Ukrainian AD is reportedly low on interceptors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verify the FT report on Patriot munition levels. Is this a genuine logistical failure or a controlled leak to secure more Western aid?
[CRITICAL] Assess the extent of the Burshtyn TPP damage. Can it still function as a switching station even if generation is zero?
[HIGH] Monitor the movement of Russian "Center" and "Yug" reserves near the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk border.
