COORDINATED INFO-OP LAUNCHED: Pro-Russian channels (Basurin, Moscow Calling) have initiated a high-visibility psychological operation featuring former Western intelligence personnel (Larry Johnson) to project a narrative of "US civil rift." (Басурин о главном, 14:59, HIGH)
C2 DISRUPTION PERSISTS: No further updates on Lt. Gen. Alekseev’s condition; GRU coordination for special operations remains likely degraded. (Baseline update, MEDIUM)
KINETIC STASIS: Extreme cold (-27°C) continues to limit large-scale maneuver; focus remains on long-range aviation and drone-based attrition. (Baseline update, HIGH)
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Belgorod): Tactical situation remains critical regarding infrastructure. The collapse of heating systems in Belgorod is increasing the civilian burden on Russian logistics. Aerial pressure on Sumy persists, with Il-78 tankers facilitating extended loiter times for VKS strike packages.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donbas): No new territorial changes. UAF 125th Brigade remains in control of the Kupyansk perimeter following the neutralization of Russian flag-planting teams.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Electronic warfare environment remains volatile. Monitoring reports of Starlink degradation among Russian units (UNCONFIRMED, LOW).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Hybrid Warfare Pivot: The timing of the "Larry Johnson" interview (14:59) suggests a deliberate shift to focus on the "US Internal Instability" narrative. This aims to demoralize Ukrainian forces by implying their primary strategic partner is on the verge of collapse.
Aviation Posture: Continued Il-78 refueling operations indicate the VKS is preparing for a sustained night-strike campaign against the Ukrainian energy grid, likely timed to coincide with the extreme temperature lows.
Logistics Stress: The -27°C weather is forcing Russian units into static positions; there is an increased reliance on "symbolic victories" (e.g., Kupyansk flag-planting) to maintain domestic morale.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Information Operations: HUR's release of war crime intercepts effectively counters the Russian narrative of "volunteer" targeting, though the reach of these intercepts in Western spheres is currently secondary to the Russian "US civil war" narrative.
Strategic Targeting: UAF long-range assets are likely in "final-ready" status following President Zelenskyy's formalization of energy infrastructure as legitimate targets.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Focus: The Kremlin is moving away from purely battlefield-focused propaganda toward "collapse of the West" themes. Using an ex-CIA analyst (Larry Johnson) provides "expert" validation for claims of an impending US civil war (Басурин о главном, 14:59).
Target Audience: This content is primarily designed for (1) Russian domestic audiences to justify the war's duration and (2) Western "anti-establishment" circles to erode support for Ukraine.
Belief Analysis: High confidence in this being a coordinated state-sponsored disinformation effort (Dempster-Shafer: 0.1528 belief in Disinformation Campaign).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A major VKS missile/UAV strike wave utilizing the strategic bombers currently being refueled. Target focus: energy nodes in Sumy, Poltava, and Kyiv.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): In response to the Alekseev hit and the new "energy targeting" doctrine, Russia may attempt a "decapitation strike" or high-yield kinetic attack against a government building in Kyiv to re-establish deterrence.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] SIGINT/GEOINT: Identify the specific airfields receiving the Il-78 refueled strike packages to provide early warning for the Sumy/Poltava corridor.
[HIGH] Technical Intelligence: Verify reports of Russian Starlink failures in the Southern sector; determine if this is due to UAF EW or a systemic service lockout.
[MEDIUM] Social Media Monitoring: Track the "civil rift" narrative's penetration into Western media to gauge the effectiveness of the latest Basurin/Johnson info-op.
