TACTICAL SUCCESS (NOVOPAVLIVKA): UAF 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade ("Perun" unit) successfully repelled a Russian ground assault in the Novopavlivka direction using FPV drones. (STERNENKO, 14:02; HIGH)
BELGOROD INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS: Authorities in Belgorod (RF) have ordered the drainage of water from heating pipes to prevent bursting due to sub-zero temperatures and sustained strikes on energy infrastructure. (RBK-Ukraine/Gladkov, 13:45; HIGH)
STARLINK SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE: Russian sources claim Starlink is now collecting precise geo-positioning data on "reactive stations" (terminals), potentially indicating a technical crackdown on unauthorized Russian use or enhanced UAF situational awareness. (NgP razvedka, 13:43; UNCONFIRMED/LOW)
STRATEGIC AVIATION DECREASE: Multiple indicators confirm an expected reduction in Tu-95 and Tu-160 heavy bomber activity in the immediate term. (Ukraine Fights, 13:34; MEDIUM)
HYBRID DIPLOMACY: Formal confirmation of UAE assistance in the apprehension of a suspect involved in the attack on GRU Deputy Head, General Alekseev. (Operatsiya Z, 13:59; HIGH)
CIVILIAN FUNDRAISING: Major tactical drone/EW fundraising goal of 1.9M UAH announced for UAF support. (Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, 14:00; MEDIUM)
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod):
The operational focus in the north is shifting toward infrastructure survival. The emergency drainage of water systems in Belgorod indicates that Ukrainian cross-border strikes have achieved cumulative effects on Russian energy resilience, compounded by the extreme frost. No significant changes in ground dispositions are reported since the previous sitrep.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Novopavlivka: Increased Russian pressure. The 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful repulsion of an assault via FPV drones suggests Russia is attempting to exploit the weather to move armor/infantry while drone visibility is intermittently reduced by atmospheric conditions.
Donetsk: Extreme weather (black ice/frost) is significantly impacting tactical movement for both sides. Social media reports indicate severe difficulties for civilian and military logistical transport in the city (Mash na Donbasse, 13:55).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
Status quo remains. The "frozen ground" maneuver window remains open, but no new movements are confirmed. The reported Starlink geo-tracking (if true) would be most critical here, where long-range drone and C2 operations rely heavily on stable SATCOM.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Internal Friction: Radical pro-Russian mil-bloggers (e.g., Alex Parker) are increasing rhetoric against the GRU leadership (Gen. Alekseev), accusing them of historical purges of separatist commanders. This suggests an opening for psychological operations targeting the cohesion between the Russian MoD and irregular/proxy formations.
Technological Adaptation: Russian Aerospace Forces are highlighting the development of new lightweight materials, likely aimed at improving UAV range or countering UAF interception (Basurin, 13:47).
Tactical Change: With heavy bomber sorties projected to decrease, the threat shifts back to tactical aviation (KABs) and localized ground attrition in the Novopavlivka and Donetsk sectors.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Electronic Warfare/FPV Dominance: UAF continues to demonstrate high proficiency in drone-led defense, specifically in the Novopavlivka sector. The 80th Air Assault Brigade's retrospective report confirms a long-term strategy of degrading Russian logistical vehicles (Butusov, 13:49).
C2 Resilience: While the Starlink "White List" issue persists from earlier reports, the current focus is on maintaining C2 during the solar flare window (M-class flares) and potential technical monitoring by the provider.
Information environment / disinformation
"Inevitable Defeat" Narrative: Putin is reportedly pivoting to a global influence campaign (cited by FT) to convince Western partners that Ukraine's defeat is a mathematical certainty, aiming to dry up military aid (Operativniy ZSU, 13:53).
Negotiation Framing: Russian state media (Kotsnews) continues to push the narrative that "Kyiv refuses to negotiate," setting the stage for renewed offensive operations while blaming Ukraine for the humanitarian fallout of the winter crisis.
European Destabilization: Russian channels are amplifying reports of political instability in Germany (distrust in Chancellor Merz) to weaken the perception of a unified European support front.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued tactical ground assaults in the Novopavlivka-Vuhledar axis as Russia attempts to find a weak point in UAF drone coverage.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A surge in tactical aviation strikes (Su-34/35) targeting the energy grid in the Sumy-Kyiv corridor, specifically timed with the overnight temperature drop to exacerbate the "dark start" risk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the Starlink geo-tracking claim: Are UAF terminals experiencing localized outages or data-sharing errors?
[HIGH] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on Belgorod energy infrastructure: Evaluate if the water drainage is a preventative measure or a reaction to a total system failure.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian internal mil-blogger sentiment regarding Gen. Alekseev for signs of broader command-level instability.
