DEEP STRIKE - KAPUSTIN YAR: UAF General Staff reports successful strikes on the Kapustin Yar testing range (Astrakhan Oblast, RF), specifically targeting ballistic missile maintenance and service facilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 0843Z; РБК-Україна, 0849Z, HIGH).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (BRYANSK): Confirmed drone/missile strike on an electrical substation in Bryansk Oblast, RF, resulting in visible fire/damage. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 0901Z, HIGH).
STRATEGIC ATTRITION SUMMARY: President Zelenskyy reported Russia launched >2,000 one-way attack drones, 1,200 KABs, and 116 missiles in the past 7 days, targeting energy and logistics. (Zelenskiy / Official, 0900Z, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC PIVOT (SLOVAKIA): Slovak President Peter Pellegrini publicly characterized the previous administration's transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine as a "mistake," signaling a hardening of Bratislava’s stance against military aid. (РБК-Україна, 0847Z, HIGH).
C2 ASSASSINATION INVESTIGATION: Russian sources have released identifies for alleged accomplices in the Gen. Alekseev case: Viktor Vasin and Zinaida Serebitskaya. Claims suggest the primary suspect, L. Korba, was drawing a Russian state pension. (Военкор Котенок, 0834Z; Alex Parker Returns, 0853Z, MEDIUM).
FRONT-LINE LOGISTICS STRIKES: UAF confirmed destruction of a Russian MTZ (Logistics) warehouse, a troop concentration area, and a UAV command post. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 0847Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted from a defensive posture following the Russian mass aerial strike to a series of coordinated Ukrainian counter-strikes against high-value targets within the Russian Federation (Kapustin Yar, Bryansk). Battlefield geometry remains stable but under intense pressure.
Key Terrain: The targeting of Kapustin Yar is significant as it is a primary site for Russian ballistic missile testing and sustainment.
Environmental Factors: While previous reports noted fog/ice, tactical aviation (VKS) remains active, though pilots report changing flight vectors to avoid established UAF AD traps (Fighterbomber, 0841Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: Russia continues to prioritize infrastructure destruction via massed UAV and KAB strikes. The use of 1,200 KABs in one week (0900Z) highlights the extreme density of tactical aviation being applied to the front lines.
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian VKS is exhibiting higher caution in flight pathing (0841Z), likely in response to recent UAF long-range AD successes. Domestically, Russia is tightening digital control, mandating the "MAX" messenger for residential building chats by late 2026 (Colonelcassad, 0849Z).
Logistics: The UAF strike on Kapustin Yar (0843Z) suggests a deliberate attempt to degrade Russia’s ability to maintain its ballistic missile inventory (Iskander/Kinzhals).
Command & Control: Russian internal security (FSB) is heavily focused on the Alekseev assassination plot, using it to fuel "traitor" and "foreign agent" narratives within the domestic information space.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture & Readiness: UAF has demonstrated a sustained ability to conduct "deep" strikes despite the ongoing national energy crisis. The focus on Russian MTZ (logistics) and UAV control nodes (0847Z) indicates a localized effort to blind and starve Russian assault groups.
Strategic Response: Ukraine is leveraging the scale of recent RU attacks (3,300+ projectiles in 7 days) to reinforce the necessity of Western AD interceptors and long-range strike authorization.
Resource Requirements: Despite the loss of "Soviet systems" being publicized in Russian media (Операция Z, 0855Z), UAF remains reliant on high-precision Western munitions for deep-strike operations like Kapustin Yar.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Disinformation: TASS is circulating an emotional narrative involving the SBU Chief personally visiting LNR captives (0853Z), likely an attempt to humanize the SBU to mask recent RU security failures or to set conditions for future "mercy" propaganda.
Slovakian Narrative: The Slovak President’s statement (0847Z) is being amplified by Russian channels to demonstrate "cracks" in NATO/EU unity.
Commemorations: Pro-Russian channels are using the anniversary of "Givi’s" death (0839Z) to bolster morale among separatist units in the Donetsk sector.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will likely launch a localized retaliatory strike against UAF energy or command hubs in response to the Bryansk and Kapustin Yar hits. Expect continued high-volume KAB usage in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia sectors to suppress UAF maneuver.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): A surge in "sleeper cell" activity within UA-controlled territory, following the template of the Alekseev assassination attempt, targeting high-ranking UAF officers during the grid instability.
Timeline: Next 6-12 hours: Expect high-intensity drone activity (Shahed/Geran) over northern and central Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The operational focus remains on the "war of electricity." UAF will likely continue asymmetric strikes against RF border infrastructure (substations) to force Russia to divert AD assets from the front to the interior. High probability of continued Russian VKS activity over the Sumy border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assess the damage at Kapustin Yar; confirm if any ballistic missile launch platforms or unique testing equipment were destroyed.
[HIGH] Monitor Slovakian political developments for any signs of restricted transit rights for Western equipment through Slovak territory.
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of the Bryansk substation; determine the number of households/military facilities currently without power in that sector.
