ZAPORIZHZHIA TACTICAL SUCCESS: The 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade captured Russian personnel in the Zaporizhzhia sector who were reportedly attempting to film staged propaganda regarding Russian advances (2042Z, Tsaplienko/128th Bde, HIGH).
SOUTHERN UAV THREAT: A group of Russian loitering munitions (Shahed-type) has been detected in Kherson Oblast moving on a western heading toward Mykolaiv/Odesa regions (2047Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
GRID INSTABILITY (TERNOPIL): Critical infrastructure failure confirmed in Ternopil; several boiler houses have transitioned to backup generators to maintain heating during extreme cold (-27°C) (2048Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
CROSS-BORDER DRONE OPS: Ukrainian drone activity reported over Rostov, Bryansk, Belgorod, and the Kuban region, indicating a coordinated effort to pressure Russian rear-area logistics and air defenses (2048Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM).
ESCALATION RHETORIC (KHARKIV): Russian mil-bloggers are intensifying "justification narratives" for potential carpet-bombing of Kharkiv, citing UAF HIMARS strikes launched from within the city limits (2054Z, Two Majors, MEDIUM).
MEDIA ANOMALY: Russian state agency TASS reported the death of an American musician (Brad Arnold) that appears to be a death hoax, potentially indicating a breakdown in editorial standards or internal C2 within Russian state media (2106Z, TASS, FALSE/LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains defined by a high-intensity "energy war" and tactical maneuvering in the South. The extreme cold (-27°C) has elevated the significance of the Ternopil grid instability, as the "Dark Start" scenario mentioned in the previous daily report manifests in localized heating failures.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in Zaporizhzhia remains fluid. The capture of RU personnel attempting to film "fake advances" suggests Russia is struggling to achieve kinetic gains and is substituting them with information-space fabrications.
Environmental Factors: Heating infrastructure in Western Ukraine (Ternopil) is under critical strain. Maintenance of the power-heat nexus is now a primary defensive priority for civilian and military authorities.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities and Intentions:
Information Operations: The failure of the RU propaganda unit in Zaporizhzhia indicates a high reliance on "synthetic victories" to mask the lack of ground progress.
Aviation/Artillery: Threat levels against Kharkiv are elevated. Russian narratives are pre-positioning blame for civilian infrastructure destruction by claiming UAF usage of HIMARS in urban centers.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Russian analysts are expressing concern over the sustainment of Ukrainian HIMARS and "Vilkha" (Olkha) munitions, attributing the supply to large-scale Polish and Baltic contracts (2059Z, Starshe Eddy). This suggests Russia is tracking UAF magazine depth closely.
Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued transit of Shahed-type UAVs from the South (Kherson) to harass port infrastructure or energy nodes in Mykolaiv/Odesa.
MDCOA: Systematic destruction of Kharkiv's remaining heating and power hubs using heavy glide bombs (KABs) and S-300s in a "punitive" campaign.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture and Readiness:
Counter-Hybrid Ops: The 128th Bde's capture of RU "media troops" demonstrates high tactical awareness and the ability to conduct localized counter-ambush/capture operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Deep Strike Capability: Sustained drone pressure on Rostov and Belgorod indicates UAF's intent to disrupt Russian VKS operations at their points of origin.
Resource Constraints:
The transition of Ternopil boilers to generators indicates a critical reliance on fuel logistics for civilian survival, which may compete with military fuel requirements if the grid remains down.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Disinformation: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating unconfirmed reports of TCC (mobilization office) violence in Dnipropetrovsk (2056Z, Operatsiya Z) to incite domestic unrest and complicate mobilization efforts.
Western Economic Narratives: Coordinated efforts to frame Western automotive shifts (EV losses) as a strategic failure serve to demoralize Western-aligned economic sentiment (2047Z, Colonelcassad).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): In the next 6-12 hours, the UAV group currently over Kherson will likely attempt to strike energy or logistics targets in Mykolaiv or Odesa. In the North, expect an uptick in KAB strikes on Kharkiv as Russia acts on its "HIMARS retaliation" rhetoric.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, multi-vector missile/UAV strike targeting the Ternopil/Western Ukraine energy hub while it is already reliant on generators, aiming to cause a permanent collapse of the regional heating system during the deep freeze.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the "Black Swarm" drone unit in the Pokrovsk sector—monitor for follow-on strikes on RU engineering equipment attempting to bypass the destroyed bridge.
[HIGH] Confirm the presence and launch frequency of HIMARS in the Kharkiv sector to assess the validity/risk of RU retaliatory strike threats.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian state media (TASS/RIA) for further erratic reporting; determine if the Brad Arnold hoax was an isolated error or a sign of systemic information C2 degradation.
