BURSHTYN TPP TOTAL FAILURE: Confirmed total cessation of operations at Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant; the city is currently without heating or water amidst -27°C temperatures (1600Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
FRENCH DEFENSE BILATERAL: President Zelensky met with French Minister Catherine Vautrin in Kyiv to discuss military aid and veteran affairs (1601Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian forces launched a "massive" strike using guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in at least one civilian casualty (1550Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
KAB STRIKES (KHARKIV): UAF Air Force confirmed new launches of guided bombs targeting Kharkiv Oblast from the north (1609Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC RUPTURE (HUNGARY): PM Viktor Orban has reportedly explicitly labeled Ukraine an "enemy" during a speech to the Fidesz party, signaling a total breakdown in bilateral relations (1607Z, Basurin, MEDIUM).
NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION: Russian state-affiliated sources are circulating claims that Ukraine is planning "nuclear provocations" using captured "Geran" drones against the Chernobyl and Khmelnytskyi NPPs (1543Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/DISINFO).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western Sector (Strategic Rear)
The operational status of the Western energy cluster is now critical. The total shutdown of the Burshtyn TPP (1600Z) effectively isolates the Ivano-Frankivsk region from the national grid and potentially de-links the Ukrainian system from the ENTSO-E (European) interconnect. This is a "Black Start" scenario where the local distribution network lacks the frequency stability to restart without external input.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Vostok Group)
Increased Russian artillery activity by the "Vostok" grouping using 152mm Giatsint-S systems (1602Z) coupled with mass KAB strikes (1550Z) indicates a localized offensive preparation or a high-intensity "fire-blooming" tactic to fix UAF units in place.
3. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Border)
The resumption of KAB strikes from the north (1609Z) confirms that Russian tactical aviation remains the primary threat to Kharkiv’s defensive perimeter. The mention of "situation in border areas" (1610Z) by Russian sources suggests ongoing reconnaissance-in-force or sabotage (DRG) activity.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Enemy Capabilities & Intentions:
Energy Warfare: The focus remains on the total degradation of the civilian "life support" systems. By targeting Burshtyn, RU is forcing a humanitarian crisis that requires UAF logistical assets (generators, water tankers) to be diverted from the front to the rear.
Hybrid/Nuclear Narrative: The sudden surge in "nuclear terrorism" rhetoric (1543Z) is a classic RU reflex often preceding a kinetic escalation or a false-flag operation. This aims to mask RU's own role in destabilizing Ukraine's NPPs through grid manipulation.
Tactical Adaptations:
Aviation: RU continues to rely on KABs as a low-risk, high-impact tool to degrade UAF forward positions without entering the inner layer of the Integrated Air Defense System (IADS).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Engagement: The visit from the French delegation (1601Z) is a critical signal of sustained European support. It is likely focused on air defense replenishment to counter the KAB threat and energy infrastructure protection.
Civil Defense: Regional administrations (Zaporizhzhia) are actively managing the fallout of aerial strikes, though resources are strained by the nationwide energy failure.
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and IADS units remain on high alert for KAB launches, though their ability to intercept glide bombs remains limited compared to cruise missiles.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Manipulation: RU channels are weaponizing economic anxiety by circulating The Economist articles about the "shattering" global financial system and the "danger" of the US dollar (1607Z). This is intended to undermine confidence in Western long-term financial support for Ukraine.
Inter-State Tension: The amplification of Orban’s "enemy" comment (1607Z) is designed to create a sense of encirclement and isolation within the Ukrainian information space.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia to exploit the currently degraded C2 (Starlink issues) and domestic distractions (energy crisis).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Russian "Yug" or "Vostok" groups launch a mechanized breakthrough attempt in the Zaporizhzhia sector while UAF focuses on the catastrophic heating failure in the West.
Weather Factor: Temperatures remaining at -27°C will cause irreversible damage to water/heating infrastructure in Burshtyn within the next 4-8 hours if power is not restored.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the exact nature of the "provocation" claims regarding the Khmelnytskyi NPP. Assess for signs of RU Spetsnaz movement near NPP exclusion zones.
[HIGH] Verify the status of 183rd Guards Regiment maneuvers—are they reloading or moving toward the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia line?
[MEDIUM] Determine if the French ministerial visit resulted in immediate "emergency transfers" of power generation equipment or short-range AD systems.
