KALIBR QUANTIFICATION: At least 10 "Kalibr" cruise missiles (CM) have been confirmed in Ukrainian airspace, transiting from the Black Sea via the Mykolaiv/Odesa corridor (0120Z, Vanek, HIGH).
WESTERN VECTOR: Two distinct groups of cruise missiles have entered southern Vinnytsia Oblast, currently maintaining a north-northwestern heading toward Khmelnytskyi Oblast (0138Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
NEW NORTHERN UAV THREAT: A new group of Shahed-type UAVs has crossed from Chernihiv Oblast into the Brovary district of Kyiv Oblast (0140Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
ASSET PENETRATION: Missiles have successfully bypassed initial interception zones in Mykolaiv (Nova Odessa) and are now utilizing the Odesa/Vinnytsia border region to complicate air defense (AD) solutions (0131Z, Vanek, HIGH).
DEEP REAR STRIKE (RUSSIA): Unconfirmed reports and video evidence suggest a Ukrainian UAV attack is currently targeting Tver Oblast, Russia (0122Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern/Southwestern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv)
Status: Transit zone. 10+ Kalibrs utilized the Mykolaiv-Odesa corridor, specifically moving through the Nova Odessa area before banking northwest.
Analysis: The use of the Odesa/Vinnytsia border suggests an attempt to exploit gaps between regional AD commands.
Status: Primary threat zone. Multiple missile groups are currently over southern Vinnytsia. The projected flight path strongly suggests Khmelnytskyi Oblast (likely the Starokostiantyniv area) as the terminal objective.
Environmental: Sub-zero temperatures (-27°C reported in daily brief) continue to stress mobile fire group equipment and personnel.
3. Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv)
Status: Increasing threat. While previous reports focused on UAVs approaching from the south (Ukrainka), a new vector has opened from the northeast (Chernihiv toward Brovary).
Analysis: This indicates a "pincer" UAV saturation of the capital to fix AD assets while cruise missiles maneuver in the west.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Disposition: The Russian Navy (Black Sea Fleet) has committed a significant "Kalibr" loadout (10+ units), likely timed to impact simultaneously with the "Shahed" groups transiting from the south and north.
Weaponry Adaptation: Russian military sources (NgP RaZVedka) are actively gloating over the "Starlink purge," suggesting that the current strike is intended to capitalize on perceived Ukrainian tactical blindness and communication disruptions (0138Z).
Course of Action: The trajectory toward Khmelnytskyi suggests a deliberate effort to strike high-value assets (airfields or Western-supplied munitions depots) located in Western Ukraine.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is providing continuous real-time vectoring. AD units in Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi are likely at "Red" readiness.
Deep Strike Capability: The reported UAV activity in Tver Oblast (if confirmed) indicates UAF is maintaining symmetric pressure on the Russian rear to force the relocation of Russian AD assets away from the front lines.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: Russian "Z-channels" are using the strike to mock UAF's electronic warfare successes, specifically claiming that the Starlink "White List" has not hindered Russian drone operations (0138Z, NgP RaZVedka).
Diplomatic Noise: State media (TASS) is amplifying Donald Trump’s comments regarding a "deal" with Iran and vague "developments" in Ukraine. This is likely intended to foster a sense of inevitability regarding negotiations on Russian terms and to signal Western political instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Impact in Khmelnytskyi Oblast within the next 30-60 minutes. Concurrent UAV strikes in the Kyiv suburbs (Brovary/Ukrainka) to suppress local AD.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The cruise missiles perform a late-stage course change toward Kyiv or Lviv, hitting targets that assumed they were only in the transit corridor.
Counter-Response: Potential for further Ukrainian "asymmetric" drone strikes on Russian energy or C2 infrastructure in the Tver/Moscow/Bryansk regions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of the specific target in Khmelnytskyi (Military Airfield vs. Logistics).
[HIGH] Verification of the scale and results of the reported UAV strike in Tver Oblast.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of Starlink connectivity status in the Khmelnytskyi/Vinnytsia operational areas during the strike period.
