AIR THREAT (DNIPROPETROVSK): Russian aviation launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region (1926Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
UAV ATTACK (DNIPRO): Shahed-type UAVs are currently inbound to Dnipro city from the southwest (1955Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
PRECISION STRIKE (UAF): The 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade ("Chornyi Lis") successfully geolocated and destroyed a Russian D-30 howitzer using HIMARS (1949Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
INTERNAL RU STABILITY: GRU General Alekseev is reported to be in critical condition in the ICU following an assassination attempt involving multiple gunshots to the back (1951Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM).
FRONT-LINE KINETIC ACTIVITY: New visual evidence confirms intense fighting and Russian attempts to advance in the Borova–Bohuslavka sector (1937Z, Slivovichny Kapriz, MEDIUM).
CYBER/LOGISTICS (RU): The Russian Prosecutor General has moved to nationalize assets of the "Leonardo" airline booking system, indicating potential state consolidation following system failures (1948Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kyiv/Chernihiv)
UAV swarms previously reported over Chernihiv (1920Z) continue their vector toward Kyiv. In the Sumy sector, previous reports of civilian vehicle targeting coincide with the ongoing digital blackout of Russian units due to the Starlink "White List" implementation. Extreme temperatures (-27°C) remain a primary constraint on movement.
2. Eastern Sector (Kupiansk/Lyman/Donetsk)
Borova–Bohuslavka: Combat intensity has increased. Geolocation data indicates Russian forces are attempting to pressure Ukrainian defensive lines in this corridor (1937Z).
Krasnyi Lyman: Russian sources claim a high volume of UAF casualties in the area (1933Z); however, this remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely part of a localized information operation to offset reported Russian losses.
Dnipropetrovsk: The shift of KAB strikes to the eastern part of the oblast (1926Z) suggests a broadening of the Russian aerial suppression campaign beyond the immediate line of contact.
3. Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
UAF precision fires remain effective. The destruction of a D-30 howitzer via HIMARS (1949Z) demonstrates continued high-level coordination between aerial reconnaissance and long-range fires. Russian "Vandal" fiber-optic drone testing remains a significant unconfirmed threat in this sector.
4. Strategic/Rear Areas
Energy: The Darnytsia TPP remains offline with a 2-month repair window.
RU Internal: The critical status of General Alekseev (1951Z) exacerbates the reported friction between the FSB and MoD. This decapitation or internal "cleansing" event is likely disrupting GRU-led hybrid operations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Nuclear Posturing: Academic/advisor Karaganov has renewed calls for "preemptive nuclear strikes" on Europe (1940Z). This is assessed as a strategic communications (STRATCOM) effort to deter Western involvement during the current winter offensive.
Sustainment Gaps: Pro-Russian organizations continue to solicit "Frontline Armor" (Фронтовая броня) donations from the Russian business sector (1949Z), confirming that MoD logistics are failing to provide sufficient protected mobility to frontline units.
Courses of Action:
MLCOA: Continued UAV/KAB saturation of Dnipro and Kyiv to mask ground maneuvers in the Borova sector.
MDCOA: A massive missile wave (24-48h window) triggered by the recently observed loading activity at GRAU Site 105, targeting the energy grid and AD nodes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Battery Excellence: UAF continues to leverage high-end запад (Western) assets like HIMARS for high-value target (HVT) interdiction, focusing on artillery that supports Russian ground assaults.
Information Resilience: Ukrainian official channels are maintaining a high tempo of reporting to counter Russian claims of "territorial compromise" narratives allegedly supported by regional governors (1844Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Territorial Compromise" Narrative: Russian-aligned channels (Operatsiya Z) are circulating claims that the Mykolaiv Governor supports territorial concessions (1944Z). This is assessed as a HIGH PROBABILITY DISINFORMATION campaign intended to induce domestic political instability.
Digital Sovereignty: Russia's nationalization of the "Leonardo" booking system (1948Z) suggests the Kremlin is moving to secure critical civilian infrastructure against perceived or actual Western cyber influence/sanctions impact.
Moldovan Pivot: President Maia Sandu's refusal of a Nobel Peace Prize nomination (1952Z) is being framed in the regional context as a move to avoid escalation or perceived "peace-at-any-cost" narratives while Ukraine remains under assault.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Immediate Threat: High probability of drone impacts in the Dnipro metropolitan area within the 0-2 hour window.
Tactical Shift: Watch for Russian use of "Vandal" fiber-optic drones in the Borova sector; their EW immunity could pose a localized threat to UAF defensive positions.
Internal RU: Potential for further "tit-for-tat" security service violence within Russia following the update on General Alekseev’s condition.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of Mykolaiv Governor's alleged statements regarding territorial compromise to debunk RU PsyOps.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of Russian troop concentrations in the Borova-Bohuslavka sector to determine if current activity is a local raid or a new axis of advance.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of Russian aviation frequencies to confirm if KAB launches on Dnipropetrovsk are precursors to a larger tactical aviation surge.
