UAV SWARM (DNIPRO): A multi-vector UAV attack is currently converging on Dnipro city from the south, west, and southeast, indicating a coordinated attempt to penetrate local AD (1833Z, 1844Z, 1848Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
UAV SWARM (CHERNIHIV/SUMY): Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs are transiting Chernihiv toward Mena, Nizhyn, and Bobrovytsya, suggesting a broadening of the northern corridor toward Kyiv (1827Z, 1846Z, 1847Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL INNOVATION: Ukrainian Army Aviation successfully conducted an air-to-air drone interception using a helicopter-mounted Minigun, demonstrating adaptation to the UAV threat (1850Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
SUMY SECTOR ASSAULT PREP: Russian MoD reports Crimean paratrooper units are using unmanned systems to clear EOD/mines for assault detachments in the Sumy region, signaling an impending localized offensive (1840Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KINETIC ACTIVITY: Operational maps confirm high-intensity combat along the Gaychure River line, likely linked to the previously reported push toward Huliaipole (1831Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL RU INSTABILITY: The body of former Russian Deputy Justice Minister Tropin was found in a Moscow apartment under "investigative" circumstances; follows a pattern of high-profile official deaths (1848Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC NARRATIVE: Russian sources are promoting a narrative of "secret points" in Abu Dhabi negotiations to be reported to President Zelenskyy, likely intended to seed distrust among Ukrainian allies (1845Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): Active Russian UAV transit corridors. More critically, RU airborne elements (Crimean paratroopers) are operating unmanned units in Sumy for route clearance (1840Z). This suggests the Russian "Slobozhansky" push (ref. Popovka in previous sitrep) may be part of a larger effort to fix Ukrainian reserves in the north.
Eastern Sector (Slovyansk/Pokrovsk): High-intensity FPV operations reported in the Slovyansk direction. The "81 Apache" Strike Group is engaged in active defense in wooded, snowy terrain, indicating Russian pressure remains constant despite sub-zero temperatures (1851Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Combat has crystallized around the Gaychure River (1831Z). This sector is currently the focus of Russian tactical ground maneuvers, supported by the earlier reported kinetic strikes on Zaporizhzhia city.
Rear/Strategic Targets: Dnipro is the immediate target of a saturating UAV attack. Targets likely include logistics hubs and the Aviatorske airfield area (1833Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is utilizing a "probing" tactic in the North (Sumy) while concentrating ground combat in the South (Zaporizhzhia). The heavy use of UAVs across multiple oblasts simultaneously serves to deplete Ukrainian AD interceptors ahead of the suspected missile wave.
Tactical Adaptations: RU MoD's integration of unmanned systems for EOD/assault pathfinding (1840Z) indicates a move toward "unmanned-first" breach operations to reduce personnel losses during the initial phase of assaults.
Economic/Legal: The RU Ministry of Finance deficit (ref. previous sitrep) is being matched by increased domestic repression, including the 15-year sentencing of a youth for "intent to join" the Freedom of Russia Legion (1853Z) and the refusal to lift "foreign agent" status for pro-war bloggers like Alekhin (1829Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Evolution: The use of Army Aviation helicopters for drone hunting (1850Z) mitigates the need for expensive ground-based missiles and provides a mobile, flexible response to low-speed UAVs.
Resilience Operations: In the Slovyansk sector, specialized FPV units (e.g., "81 Apache") are maintaining the line in extreme winter conditions, leveraging thermal-equipped drones for night interdiction (1851Z).
Strategic Communication: The President's focus on scientific milestones (Vernadsky Station anniversary, 1828Z) effectively counters Russian "dark winter" narratives by emphasizing long-term national viability.
Information environment / disinformation
"Abu Dhabi" Leak: The claim of "secret points" being reported to Zelenskyy (1845Z) is a classic RU active measure. It aims to suggest Ukraine is negotiating behind the backs of its partners, specifically the US/EU, to create friction in the 20th sanctions package deliberations (1835Z).
Nuclear Posture: Reporting on Senator Rubio's comments regarding the failure of New START (1837Z) signals a hardening of the US position, which the Kremlin is currently attempting to "muddy" via Peskov's statements (1852Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV strikes on Dnipro and the Kyiv periphery (via Chernihiv). Ground assaults in the Zaporizhzhia (Gaychure) and Sumy sectors will likely intensify at dawn.
MDCOA: The UAV swarms succeed in identifying "holes" in the Dnipro or Kyiv AD umbrellas, followed immediately by the strategic aviation missile launch (ref. previous sitrep C2 alerts).
Timeline: Expect kinetic impacts in Dnipro within the 1930Z-2100Z window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the exact composition of RU units in the Sumy region. Are the Crimean paratroopers (1840Z) reinforced by heavy armor?
[HIGH] Confirm the status of the "shadow fleet" sanctions impact; monitor RU response to the EU's 20th package.
[MEDIUM] Assess the reliability of reports concerning the death of ex-Deputy Justice Minister Tropin for signs of internal RU security purges.
