EXPANSION OF KAB STRIKES - KHARKIV/DONETSK: Russian forces have expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) operations to include eastern and northeastern Kharkiv region and the Donetsk region. This follows the 1455Z strikes on Zaporizhzhia, indicating a coordinated multi-sector aerial suppression campaign. (1456Z-1457Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
EU OIL POLICY SHIFT: Reports indicate the EU may move to eliminate the "price cap" mechanism in favor of the more restrictive measures outlined in the 20th sanctions package (targeting the shadow fleet and maritime services). (1459Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM).
DOMESTIC INFO OPS: Ukrainian monitoring identifies a surge in Russian-origin disinformation targeting domestic "pro-war" audiences, likely intended to maintain internal support amid reports of high-attrition and mercenary motivations among Russian personnel. (1458Z, Anatoliy Shtefan, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Kharkiv Sector: The launch of KABs against eastern and northeastern Kharkiv (1457Z) suggests an intent to disrupt Ukrainian defensive lines or logistics nodes near the border. This adds a northern vector to the current aerial offensive.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk): New KAB launches (1456Z) complement ongoing high-intensity ground attrition. This sector remains the primary focus for Russian tactical aviation, likely supporting the "normalization" operations claimed in the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Continued pressure from previous KAB strikes and drone activity (1435Z-1455Z). The objective appears to be the isolation of the regional center from northern reinforcements.
Environmental Factor: Temperature remains critical at -27°C. Operational mobility for both sides is severely restricted, prioritizing long-range fires and aerial bombardment over mechanized maneuvers.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Operations: Russia is demonstrating the capacity to surge KAB strikes across three distinct operational directions (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) simultaneously. This suggests high availability of airframes and munitions, and a coordinated C2 effort to saturate Ukrainian air defenses.
Logistics & Sustainability: While Russian personnel motivation remains tied to financial gain ("babki") (1459Z, Sever.Realii), the activation of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (noted in previous 24h context) remains the primary indicator of an imminent large-scale missile wave.
Economic Adaptation: Russian sources are tracking EU policy shifts regarding the oil price cap. Any move from a price cap to a total ban on specific vessels (shadow fleet) will disrupt Russian export logistics in the medium term, though immediate impacts are likely being mitigated by pre-planned "shadow" routes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense & Early Warning: UA Air Force continues to provide real-time alerts for KAB and UAV threats, maintaining a high level of situational awareness despite the breadth of the Russian aerial surge.
Electronic Warfare/Digital Domain: The implementation of the Starlink "White List" (Daily Context) continues to provide a tactical advantage by degrading Russian frontline comms, though its effectiveness may be challenged by the increasing reliance on KABs which operate outside the FPV/Starlink-dependent C2 loops.
Counter-Information: Military influencers (e.g., Shtefan) are actively neutralizing Russian disinformation narratives, maintaining morale within the Ukrainian cognitive domain.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Promoting the idea of an EU policy failure regarding the oil price cap to project economic resilience.
Ukrainian Narrative: Highlighting the transactional/mercenary nature of Russian soldiers to delegitimize the "patriotic" framing of the invasion.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB saturation across Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Russian tactical aviation will likely focus on thermal-heavy targets (energy infrastructure, heated bunkers) given the -27°C conditions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The current KAB surge acts as a suppression-of-enemy-air-defense (SEAD) precursor to a strategic missile strike on the national grid (TPP-4 follow-ups), timed for the coldest period of the night (0000Z-0400Z).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Identify the specific targets of KAB strikes in NE Kharkiv; determine if they target civilian heating infrastructure or military staging areas.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian "Military Police" movement in the Pokrovsk sector to confirm if "evacuations" are masking the arrival of fresh reserve units.
[MEDIUM] Assess the degree of Russian airframe fatigue following the multi-sector KAB surge.
[LOW] Verify reports of EU oil price cap "cancellation" through official diplomatic channels to determine if this signals a transition to a total embargo.
