MASSIVE MISSILE STRIKE (KIROVOHRADSKA): A large-scale missile strike has impacted Kirovohradska Oblast; initial reports indicate significant damage to infrastructure (1100Z, RBC-UA; HIGH).
ENERGY GRID COLLAPSE: DTEK has implemented emergency power outages in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions following the morning's aerial strikes (1124Z, RBC-UA; HIGH).
MYRNOHRAD BATTLE: Fighting has intensified on the northern outskirts of Myrnohrad; UA 7th Air Assault Corps reports a "substantially complicated" tactical situation (1105Z, Operativniy ZSU; HIGH).
C2 ATTRIBUTION (ALEKSEEV): Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov officially confirmed the assassination attempt on Gen-Lt Alekseev (GRU), framing it as a UA provocation to disrupt "negotiations" (1100Z, TASS; HIGH).
SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE: RU reconnaissance UAVs are actively loitering over Northern Kherson, likely serving as spotters for high-precision strikes (1123Z, PS ZSU; HIGH).
RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT DRIVE: Rostov Oblast has increased one-time payments to "volunteers" by 300,000 RUB, indicating persistent manpower replenishment requirements (1058Z, TASS; MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Air Domain: The aerial assault remains multi-vectored and persistent. Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting:
From Sumy toward Poltava (vector: Komyshnya/Hadyach/Romodan).
From Chernihiv toward Mena.
Toward Zaporizhzhia from the South.
Past Pavlohrad toward Samar (Dnipropetrovsk).
Donetsk Sector (Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk): The focus of Russian ground efforts has shifted toward the northern outskirts of Myrnohrad. Use of KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) in Donetsk Oblast was confirmed at 1100Z, supporting Russian 35th Army (Vostok) tactical movements.
Infrastructure: The combination of extreme cold (-27°C) and the 1124Z emergency shutdowns in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk creates a critical vulnerability for heating and water systems.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: Ukrainian units (24th Bde) documented Russian drone operators killing their own personnel who attempted to surrender (1059Z, Butusov Plus). This suggests a tightening of Russian "no-retreat" discipline measures.
Assassination Aftermath: The discovery of a discarded firearm in a Moscow courtyard (1057Z, Alex Parker) and the high-level confirmation of the Alekseev attempt suggest a major security breach within the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Hybrid Operations (Domestic RF): FSB reports the detention of an alleged SBU agent in Khabarovsk and the charging of a Barnaul resident for crypto-financing the UAF (1121Z). This is likely a coordinated domestic propaganda wave to justify further mobilization and internal repression.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Posture: UA Air Defense is actively tracking multiple low-altitude UAV groups across Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk. The high frequency of PS ZSU warnings (7 messages in 30 minutes) suggests a saturation tactic intended to deplete mobile fire group ammunition.
Legal/Justice Operations: UA Prosecutors have successfully identified an "LPR" militant involved in the torture of civilians in Izyum, maintaining the legal front for war crimes accountability (1100Z).
Force Logistics: Despite the thermal/energy crisis, private and unit-level fundraising (e.g., Signum/Sternenko) continues to supply tactical FPV capabilities to the front (1115Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
The "Negotiation" Narrative: Lavrov's framing of the Alekseev hit as a "Zelensky-led provocation to stop talks" (1100Z) is a clear attempt to seize the moral high ground ahead of any potential diplomatic engagement.
"Trump Route" Signal: Russia’s Ambassador to Armenia signaled Moscow's readiness to discuss participation in a "Trump Route" project (1117Z, TASS), likely a strategic communication aimed at the US political landscape.
Domestic Demoralization: RU channels (Novosti Moskvy) are disseminating "scientific" claims that "Generation Z" is less intelligent than predecessors (1102Z), a classic reflexive control tactic to undermine the morale of mobilization-age cohorts.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will exploit the current power outages in Dnipropetrovsk to launch a localized ground offensive or high-precision strike on the Pavlohrad/Samar rail hub while local C2/communications are strained by the blackout.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A retaliatory strike against a high-value UA C2 node in Kyiv or Lviv, justified by the Russian MoD as a response to the Alekseev "assassination attempt."
Energy Sector: If emergency outages in Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk exceed 12 hours in the current -27°C weather, the risk of pipe-bursting and permanent grid damage increases exponentially.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High threat of further missile/KAB strikes in the Donetsk and Kirovohrad sectors. Expect continued Russian propaganda regarding the "Alekseev assassin" to dominate the international information space. Monitor Myrnohrad for potential tactical withdrawals or encirclement risks as fighting reaches urban outskirts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kirovohradska missile strikes; determine if the primary target was airfields or electrical distribution.
[HIGH] Identify the status of the "female assassin" in Moscow—is this a Russian internal "purge" being blamed on Ukraine?
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of frontline stability in Northern Myrnohrad.
[LOW] Impact of the Rostov "volunteer payment" increase on actual enlistment rates (indicator of RU manpower desperation).
