KYIV TPP TARGETING: Shahed UAVs confirmed on terminal approach to the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant (TPP-4), despite the facility already being reported as "destroyed" (0335Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
EXPANDED UAV THREAT: Loitering munitions are now active over Poltava, Lubny (Poltava Oblast), and Ichnia (Chernihiv Oblast), indicating a significant broadening of the strike envelope toward the northern and central axes (0357Z, Air Force, HIGH).
STRATEGIC TECH THREAT: Reports indicate China has developed microwave weaponry capable of disrupting low-orbit satellites, specifically naming Starlink; this poses a direct threat to UAF's primary C2 backbone (0339Z, SCMP/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
LOGISTICAL ADAPTATION: Russian "Vostok" group is confirmed using "Mangas" heavy hexacopters for frontline resupply (ammunition/water/food), suggesting a shift toward unmanned logistics to bypass UAF FPV/artillery interdiction (0401Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
CASUALTY UPDATE: Civilian deaths in Vilniansk (Zaporizhzhia) confirmed as a married couple following a Russian strike (0355Z, ASTRA/OVA, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC STALEMATE: US and China have formally refused to sign a declaration on the military use of AI, signaling a continued escalatory path in multi-domain autonomous warfare (0344Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain remains the active center of gravity. The UAV swarm has transitioned from a pincer on Kyiv to a multi-regional saturation operation covering the Kyiv-Poltava-Zaporizhzhia triangle.
Critical Infrastructure: The repeated targeting of Darnytsia TPP (Kyiv) suggests an enemy objective to ensure the "permanent" destruction of the thermal grid, preventing any rapid repair of the water-heating systems mentioned in previous reports.
Weather: Sustained -27°C temperatures continue to amplify the tactical impact of every successful energy infrastructure hit.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Strike Tactics: The "double-tap" or redundant strike on Darnytsia TPP indicates a meticulous effort to ensure total infrastructure failure. The expansion of UAV vectors toward Lubny and Ichnia suggests an attempt to find gaps in the northern air defense (AD) umbrella outside the capital.
Logistics & C2: The deployment of "Mangas" heavy drones for resupply indicates that Russian tactical logistics have reached a level of automation intended to offset the "Starlink White List" advantage by reducing the need for vulnerable radio-dependent ground convoys.
Counter-Space Capability: The SCMP report regarding Chinese microwave weapons likely serves as a cognitive operation to shake UAF confidence in Starlink, while potentially signaling future Russian procurement of such systems to counter the recent MoD "White List" initiative.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is engaged across at least five oblasts simultaneously. The focus remains on point-defense of energy hubs.
C2 Resilience: The MoD's implementation of the Starlink "White List" is the current primary advantage. However, the emergence of anti-satellite microwave technology requires immediate contingency planning for alternative SATCOM or terrestrial links.
Force Readiness: UAF ground units are holding positions in extreme cold; however, the saturation of UAVs in the rear (Lubny/Poltava) may disrupt tactical rotations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
International/Strategic: The US-China refusal to regulate military AI suggests a "no-limits" approach to the development of autonomous strike systems, which is currently being prototyped on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Russian Domestic: TASS is attempting to mitigate fears of domestic economic collapse (real estate bankruptcies), likely to prevent social unrest during the expensive winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): UAVs currently over Poltava and Ichnia will target gas compression stations or local electrical substations within the next 2-4 hours to further fragment the national grid.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A synchronized deployment of Chinese-made or Chinese-derived electronic warfare (EW) / microwave systems to "black out" Starlink over the entire Kyiv sector, coinciding with a heavy bomber-led missile wave.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued air raid alerts across Central and Northern Ukraine. The probability of a large-scale missile strike (Tu-95) remains high (estimated 24-48h window from previous SAR data). Defensive focus must remain on the Darnytsia and Zaporizhzhia energy nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if "Mangas" logistics drones are operating on "Rubicon" fiber-optic tethers or traditional RF, to assess EW effectiveness.
[HIGH] Technical verification of microwave weapon capabilities—specifically, whether this is a localized platform or a space-based threat.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for arrival of heavy bomber flight crews at Pskov Airbase (ref: previous daily report activity).
