WESTERN VECTOR EXPANSION: Russian UAVs have transited from Rivne Oblast into Volyn Oblast, currently on a heading for Lutsk (0221Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
CENTRAL SECTOR SATURATION: New groups of UAVs detected moving toward Kropyvnytskyi and Cherkasy (0204Z, 0218Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
AD ENGAGEMENT IN SOUTH: Active Air Defense (AD) kinetic activity confirmed in Zaporizhzhia region following UAV incursions (0221Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION (EAST): Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have launched KAB (guided aerial bombs) strikes targeting the Donetsk region (0203Z, UAF AF, HIGH).
KHERSON STRIKE CLAIM: Russian MoD claims successful FPV drone strikes against UAF assets in Kherson; however, specific targets and damage remain unverified (0203Z, TASS, LOW).
BELGOROD COUNTER-BATTERY: Russian milbloggers claim intensive UAF shelling of Belgorod energy infrastructure and AD mapping, though this likely serves a domestic defensive narrative (0227Z, НгП раZVедка, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain has expanded. The previously identified vector toward Sarny has progressed further west toward Lutsk. Simultaneously, the enemy is widening the "strike front" by introducing new UAV groups into Central Ukraine (Kropyvnytskyi/Cherkasy).
Weather: Extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary environmental factor. The threat to energy infrastructure in Cherkasy and Kropyvnytskyi is critical, as these nodes support both civilian heating and rear-echelon logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aviation & Stand-off Strikes: The use of KABs in Donetsk suggests the enemy is maintaining high-tempo tactical pressure on the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) to fix Ukrainian units while the strategic UAV campaign targets the rear.
UAV Maneuver: The flight path from Rivne to Volyn indicates a sophisticated bypass of established AD corridors. This suggests the "loitering" behavior noted in the 0200Z report was a reconnaissance phase to identify a gap for the deeper Lutsk penetration.
Capabilities: While Russian MoD claims FPV success in Kherson, the reported disruption of Starlink (from the 24h daily report) is likely forcing Russian tactical units to rely on less reliable C2, potentially explaining the shift toward autonomous/pre-programmed loitering munitions over manual FPVs in some sectors.
3. FRIEINDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is actively engaging targets over Zaporizhzhia. The expansion of the threat to Volyn (Lutsk) and Kropyvnytskyi necessitates a rapid redistribution of Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) to protect western rail junctions and central electrical substations.
Counter-Operations: If Russian reports of shelling in Belgorod are accurate, it indicates a UAF effort to disrupt the logistics of the very units facilitating the drone/missile strikes on Ukraine's energy grid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Narrative: Russian sources are focusing on the "victimization" of Belgorod to justify current and future strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Internal Friction: Milblogger complaints regarding plagiarism (reported 0147Z) continue to suggest a lack of unified command in the Russian information space, potentially hindering their ability to conduct effective BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): UAVs will strike energy or logistics targets in Lutsk and Kropyvnytskyi within the next 2 hours. This will be followed by a lull used to assess AD responses before a potential dawn missile wave.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A synchronized "Complex Strike" involving the UAVs currently in the air as decoys for a multi-axis cruise missile attack (Kh-101/Kalibr) launched from the previously identified active depots (260th Central Rocket Artillery Base), targeting the Lutsk-Lviv-Sarny "Western Triangle" to sever European supply lines.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued high-intensity air activity across the Western and Central sectors. The threat to the energy grid is at its highest point in the last 72 hours due to the sub-zero temperatures. Priority must be given to the protection of the Volyn rail corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of kinetic impacts in Kropyvnytskyi and Cherkasy to determine if the target is the energy grid or transit logistics.
[HIGH] SIGINT/ELINT monitoring for VKS Long-Range Aviation (Tu-95MS) communications to confirm if the current UAV wave is a precursor to a massed missile strike.
[MEDIUM] Visual confirmation of the claimed Russian FPV successes in Kherson to assess if the "Starlink White List" is indeed degrading their tactical performance.
