WESTERN UKRAINE PENETRATION: One or more UAVs detected in Rivne Oblast, currently on a vector toward Sarny (0131Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
ONGOING AIR THREAT (CENTRAL/SOUTH): Tracking continues for UAV groups previously reported in Cherkasy (moving South) and the approach to Kryvyi Rih from the East (0056Z-0114Z context, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The air domain has expanded into a three-axis engagement. The enemy is currently operating UAV cells in the Western (Rivne), Central (Cherkasy), and Southeastern (Kryvyi Rih) sectors.
Key Terrain: Sarny (Rivne Oblast) is a critical rail and logistics hub for North-South and East-West transit in Western Ukraine. A strike here targets the flow of materiel from the Western borders.
Weather: Temperature remains critical at -27°C. Thermal stress on energy infrastructure increases the probability of catastrophic failure if substations are kineticized.
ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Multi-Vector Saturation: The addition of a Western vector (Rivne/Sarny) indicates the enemy is attempting to overstretch UAF Air Defense (AD) by forcing simultaneous engagements across the entire breadth of the country.
Logistical Interdiction: The vector toward Sarny suggests a shift from purely energy-focused strikes to logistical interdiction. By targeting rail nodes in the West, the enemy aims to disrupt the reinforcement of the Donbas and Southern fronts.
Launch Origins: The Rivne ingress likely originated from a Northern launch point (potentially Belarus or the Bryansk region), indicating a coordinated launch sequence timed to coincide with the Central and Southern waves.
FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
AD Disposition: UAF units in the Rivne sector are now on high alert. Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are being vectored to the Sarny rail junction to provide terminal defense.
Operational Readiness: The "White List" Starlink implementation (Daily Report context) is assessed to be maintaining its disruptive effect on Russian tactical coordination in the South, potentially explaining the enemy's reliance on pre-programmed, long-range strategic UAV strikes over tactical FPV surges.
INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Russian Narrative: State media continues to prioritize domestic industrial "successes" (aviation equipment) to insulate the domestic population from the financial impact of the T-Bank failure and the reality of sustained Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Regional Sentiment: Pro-Russian sources continue to push "stability" narratives in Tokmak, likely to pre-emptively counter any local unrest or UAF-aligned partisan activity.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): The UAV group in Rivne will attempt a strike on the Sarny rail junction or nearby electrical infrastructure within the next 30-45 minutes. Concurrently, the Cherkasy group will impact energy targets in the Kropyvnytskyi/Dnipropetrovsk axis.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): These distributed UAV probes are a precursor to a high-volume missile wave (Kalibr/Iskander) currently being prepared at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (SAR context). This wave would launch once UAF AD interceptors are depleted and radar signatures have been mapped by the current UAV activity.
Timeline Estimate: Kinetic impact in Sarny sector estimated 0200Z–0220Z.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The threat level is EXTREME for the energy and logistics sectors across Rivne, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The widening of the strike envelope to include Western rail hubs (Sarny) suggests a new phase of the winter campaign aimed at isolating the front from Western logistical support.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Launch point identification for the Rivne UAV group to confirm if Belarusian territory is being actively utilized for this wave.
[HIGH] Damage assessment for the Kyiv Reservoir group; if no impacts are reported, the group may be loitering to identify AD gaps for the MDCOA.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT monitoring of Russian logistics units at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base to determine the "launch window" for the predicted missile wave.
