PRECISION DEEP STRIKE: Ukrainian forces conducted a massed MLRS/HIMARS strike against logistics and energy infrastructure in Belgorod, Russia; approximately 20 rockets reported (2121Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTRITION: Russian strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have de-energized 12,000 subscribers and damaged civilian housing (2142Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH).
SOCIAL ENGINEERING THREAT: Critical alert issued regarding adversary intelligence operations targeting the new Ukrainian Starlink "White List" via fraudulent technical support schemes (2121Z, Archangel Spetsnaza, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT: New wave of Russian UAVs detected in eastern Kharkiv region, maintaining a southwesterly heading (2143Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
GRID DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: Russian sources claim Kyiv’s TPP-4 (Darnytska) will require months of repair, threatening long-term heating for the Left Bank (2135Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Kupyansk Sector: Following the destruction of the North Korean "Koksan" unit (see previous sitrep), the sector remains active with a new UAV ingress from the east/northeast. Russian milbloggers claim UA has consolidated HIMARS assets in this sector to facilitate strikes on Belgorod (2145Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Kinetic activity remains high. Recent Russian strikes have focused on the tactical rear, specifically targeting the energy grid near the frontline to degrade civilian and military sustainment (2142Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA).
Kyiv/Central Sector: Grid stability remains the primary concern. Localized outages are persisting. Adversary propaganda is actively attempting to amplify the psychological impact of the TPP-4 strike by predicting a total winter-long blackout for the Left Bank.
Russian Interior (Belgorod): Reported "massive" rocket attacks resulted in power disruptions. This indicates a sustained UA effort to disrupt RU logistics hubs and pressure RU air defense (AD) reallocation.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Hybrid Tactics (C2/Cyber): Following the AFU's implementation of the Starlink "White List," Russian intelligence has pivoted to social engineering. Scammers are posing as technical support to harvest terminal data or bypass authentication. This represents a direct threat to tactical communications security.
Air Operations: The shift in UAV flight paths (southwesterly through Kharkiv) suggests an attempt to find gaps in the mobile fire group (MFG) coverage that has been reinforced around Sumy and Kyiv.
Infrastructure Strategy: The focus on Zaporizhzhia’s local grid indicates a "salami-slicing" approach to the Ukrainian energy system—targeting regional hubs to prevent the balancing of the national load.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Value/Counter-Logistics: The use of HIMARS for deep strikes into Belgorod demonstrates a willingness to expend high-end munitions to degrade the Russian staging areas supporting the Kharkiv/Kupyansk offensive.
C2 Security: Signal units are actively countering the Starlink phishing campaign, but personnel awareness remains a critical vulnerability.
Defensive Screening: AFU Air Force continues to track and intercept UAV waves entering through eastern corridors.
Information environment / disinformation
Demoralization Campaign: Russian state-aligned channels (Colonelcassad) are using maps of utility outages to create a narrative of "permanent" infrastructure failure in Kyiv (2135Z).
Geopolitical Framing: TASS is amplifying rhetoric regarding the "collapse of the EU" (2147Z) and using external scandals (Epstein case) to distract from battlefield developments and fracture Western social cohesion (2128Z).
Belgorod Narrative: RU MoD-aligned sources are framing UA strikes on Belgorod as a "desperate response" to UA grid failures, attempting to minimize the tactical significance of RU logistics losses.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment through the Kharkiv-Poltava corridor. Potential for a second missile wave targeting Zaporizhzhia to exploit existing grid damage.
MDCOA: A successful RU social engineering attack compromises a significant number of "White Listed" Starlink terminals, leading to localized C2 blackouts during a Russian ground assault.
Weather Factor: Sustained -27°C temperatures will accelerate the degradation of any damaged piping in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia; the next 6 hours are critical for emergency bypass operations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the specific technical methods used in the Starlink "tech support" scam to update unit-level security protocols.
[HIGH] Assess the operational status of Belgorod-area rail and ammo transshipment points following the 20-rocket HIMARS strike.
[MEDIUM] Confirm if the RU UAVs in eastern Kharkiv are reconnaissance (Orlan-10/Supercam) or strike (Shahed) assets.
