STARLINK DENIAL IMPACT: Ukrainian General Staff confirms a measurable decrease in Russian ground assaults following the implementation of the "White List" protocol, which successfully bricked captured Starlink terminals (1934Z, Tsaplienko/Radio Svoboda, HIGH).
MILITARY SPACE LAUNCH: Russia successfully launched a "Soyuz-2.1b" rocket from Plesetsk carrying military satellites. This is likely intended to enhance orbital reconnaissance or provide alternative tactical communication channels to compensate for recent terrestrial disruptions (1926Z, TASS, HIGH).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STATUS: The Ministry of Energy reports the district served by Kyiv’s TPP-4 remains the most critical zone; no immediate restoration of heat is expected due to severe damage and temperatures of -27°C (1939Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT: Russian forces have initiated new KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches targeting the Sumy region, extending the aerial pressure previously noted in Kharkiv (1936Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
FRONT-LINE LOGISTICS CRISIS: Russian milbloggers have launched emergency fundraising campaigns for "frontline armor" and communication gear, citing severe coordination issues post-Starlink blackout (1937Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL SECURITY INCIDENT: A member of the Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) was stabbed in Odesa; the perpetrator fled. This indicates heightened domestic tension regarding mobilization (1923Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING: The White House announced intent to discuss a successor to the New START treaty with Russia, countering earlier Russian narratives suggesting a total collapse of nuclear arms control (1937Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): A Russian reconnaissance UAV was detected in the Novhorod-Siverskyi district. This is likely a spotter for the KAB strikes currently hitting Sumy.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv): Continued UAV activity with a vector toward Berestyn. Russian forces are maintaining aerial pressure to fix Ukrainian units in place while their ground coordination is hampered.
Southern Sector (Novopavlivka): Tactical success for UAF 42nd OMBr; FPV drone operators ("Perun" unit) successfully neutralized Russian infantry, indicating continued effectiveness of Ukrainian tactical UAVs despite the intense cold (1943Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
Kyiv MD: The energy situation is deteriorating into a long-term humanitarian concern. The inability to repair TPP-4 in sub-zero temperatures increases the risk of permanent pipe bursts in the Darnytskyi district.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes: Russia is attempting to pivot to alternative communication methods. The launch of military satellites and the urgent crowdfunding for "radio bridges" suggest a move toward mesh-networked radio systems to bypass the Starlink dependency.
Attrition: Ukrainian assessments claim Russia set a near-record attrition rate in January. This high loss of personnel, combined with the current C2 disruption, has likely forced the observed pause in heavy ground assaults.
Global Signaling: The operational deployment of the Iranian "Khorramshahr 4" missile (1935Z, Colonelcassad) serves as a reminder of the deepening Russia-Iran defense axis, potentially signaling future technology transfers for long-range precision strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 Dominance: UAF successfully maintains the Starlink blockade. The "White List" implementation is currently the most significant non-kinetic factor degrading Russian offensive tempo.
Deep Strikes/EW: While no new deep strikes were reported in the last hour, the ongoing suppression of Russian recon UAVs over Chernihiv indicates active electronic warfare and air defense posture in the north.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Desperation: Pro-Russian channels (RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora) are shifting from triumphant reporting to urgent appeals for gear. This is being used to frame the Starlink blackout as an "unfair" Western intervention to galvanize domestic Russian support.
Domestic Unrest: The Odesa TCC stabbing is being amplified by Russian-aligned channels to portray a breakdown in Ukrainian social cohesion.
Journalistic Crackdown: Russia has opened a criminal case against Meduza journalist Andrey Pertsev (ASTRA), signaling further tightening of the domestic information space to prevent reporting on military failures or casualties.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Russia will maintain high-intensity KAB and UAV strikes on the Sumy-Kharkiv axis to compensate for stalled ground operations.
MDCOA: Utilizing newly launched satellite data, Russia may attempt a precision missile strike on the vulnerable repair crews at Kyiv’s TPP-4 to ensure the permanent destruction of the heating grid.
Decision Point: UAF must decide whether to redeploy additional AD assets to protect the Kyiv energy repair efforts or maintain them on the front line to counter the increasing KAB threat in Sumy.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Identify the specific technical characteristics of the satellites launched on the Soyuz-2.1b. Determine if they provide immediate tactical "Sat-to-Radio" relay capabilities.
[HIGH] Monitor Odesa and other major cities for coordinated anti-TCC activity to determine if the stabbing was an isolated incident or part of a GRU-led hybrid operation to disrupt mobilization.
[MEDIUM] Confirm if the "Provod" heavy FPV drones mentioned in the previous sitrep are being integrated with the "radio bridges" currently being crowdfunded by Russian volunteers.
