PRISONER EXCHANGE: Large-scale repatriation confirmed; 150 Ukrainian military personnel and 7 civilians released from Russian captivity (1305Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH). Notable returnees include personnel from the 12th "Azov" and 15th "Kara-Dag" Brigades (1625Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE ATTRIBUTION: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) and internal assets officially claimed responsibility for the strike on the Kapustin Yar missile range (Site 105) (1622Z, Цаплієнко, HIGH).
TACTICAL ADVANCE (BAKHMUT): Russian forces have made confirmed tactical gains north of Bakhmut in the Artyomovsk–Pryvillya sector, supported by satellite and reconnaissance footage (1641Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM).
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKES: Repeated Russian kinetic strikes targeted an electrical substation in Zaporizhzhia; Shahed-type UAVs confirmed over Pavlohrad and Zaporizhzhia (1624Z, 1636Z, Air Force UA/Дневник Десантника, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC SHIFT: Estonia and Latvia have issued a joint call for the European Union to return to the negotiating table regarding the Ukraine conflict (1649Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM).
C2 DEGRADATION: Visual evidence confirms the Starlink "White List" has effectively bricked Russian-held terminals, with Russian forces now reportedly using the hardware for non-communicative, unconventional purposes (1621Z, Бутусов Плюс, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high despite the -27°C temperatures. The conflict is currently characterized by a "dual-track" reality: intense localized ground assaults in the Donbas and a strategic air campaign targeting Ukrainian energy nodes. The return of 157 Ukrainians provides a significant morale boost to the domestic population, contrasting with the critical heating vulnerabilities in Kyiv and the ongoing Russian technical degradation following the Starlink blockade.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Operations: In the Bakhmut Sector, Russian forces are exploiting localized gaps to push toward Pryvillya. In the Vremivka Direction, elements of the 5th Army (Group "Vostok") are utilizing FPV drone teams to interdict Ukrainian vehicular logistics (1642Z, Colonelcassad).
Energy Warfare: The focus has shifted toward the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk grids. By hitting substations repeatedly, Russia aims to create a "cascading failure" in the regional energy infrastructure to match the crisis in Kyiv.
Internal Friction/Stability: Russia continues domestic "cleansing" of officials (ex-police chief Pronin) while mourning the death of former Navy CinC Admiral Kuroyedov. The "Year of Unity" messaging from the Kremlin suggests an effort to solidify the home front against the impact of deep-strikes like Kapustin Yar.
Hybrid Ops: The IRGC’s seizure of tankers in the Persian Gulf (1624Z) is likely an aligned "distraction" or escalatory signal designed to pressure Western maritime focus away from the Black Sea/Ukrainian theater.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Special Operations (SSO): The attribution of the Kapustin Yar attack indicates high confidence in S&I (Sabotage and Intelligence) networks within the Russian Federation. This demonstrates a capability to strike ICBM/strategic assets far beyond the frontline.
Technical Status: The Starlink "White List" implementation is successfully denying the enemy a critical C2 and drone-guidance tool. However, the 72nd Brigade's reported outages (from previous sitrep) remain a concern for "digital friendly fire."
Morale: The return of Azov and Kara-Dag personnel is a major psychological victory, particularly as some had been held for 45 months.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Technical Mockery: Ukrainian channels are successfully weaponizing the Russian failure to bypass Starlink restrictions, portraying the Russian military as technically incompetent (1621Z, Бутусов Плюс).
Negotiation Narrative: The Baltic states’ push for negotiations (1649Z) may indicate emerging fractures in EU consensus regarding "total victory" versus a "managed settlement."
Russian Internal Propaganda: Emphasizing "responsibility" and "unity" (1631Z, Kotsnews) to counter the psychological impact of SSO operations on Russian soil.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the pincer movement north of Bakhmut while maintaining UAV pressure on the Zaporizhzhia/Pavlohrad logistics hub.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Darkness Strike" involving both the remaining Geran-2 UAVs over Pavlohrad and a fresh missile wave to permanently disable the Dnipropetrovsk energy hub, isolating the Southern Front from power and rail logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Zaporizhzhia electrical substation strikes. Determine if regional blackouts are imminent.
[HIGH] Technical status of the 72nd Brigade's C2. Confirm if Starlink restoration has occurred following the Whitelist implementation.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "Pryvillya" advance. Determine if Russian forces have established a stable LOD (Line of Departure) for a larger push toward Kostiantynivka.
