HUMANITARIAN SUCCESS: A major prisoner of war (POW) exchange has been completed; 157 Ukrainian servicemen, including personnel from Kryvyi Rih, have returned to government-controlled territory (1535Z, Vilkul; 1538Z, Biloshytskyi, HIGH).
AIR THREAT (WESTERN UKRAINE): A Russian UAV was intercepted and downed over the Lviv hromada, indicating deep-penetration reconnaissance or a "kamikaze" strike attempt far from the frontline (1530Z, Sadovyi, HIGH).
AIR THREAT (NORTH/SOUTH): UAVs detected in Chernihiv (vectoring toward Kyiv) and Kherson (vectoring toward Mykolaiv). Additionally, KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches are confirmed targeting the Dnipropetrovsk region (1533Z, 1535Z, 1546Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING: OSCE Secretary General and the Swiss Foreign Minister have arrived in Moscow for negotiations with Lavrov, coinciding with the departure of US envoy Steven Witkoff from Abu Dhabi (1531Z, 1534Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
C2 DEGRADATION: Russian tactical channels are actively seeking solutions for "fallen Starlink" terminals, confirming the operational impact of the UAF "Whitelist" implementation (1534Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH).
TACTICAL CLAIM (DONETSK): Russian sources claim the capture of the settlement "Svitle" (Svetloye) by the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment; this remains UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian official sources (1542Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by extreme cold (-27°C) and a pivot toward diplomatic signaling alongside kinetic pressure. While the energy crisis in Kyiv remains the primary humanitarian concern, the successful POW exchange provides a critical morale boost. Air activity is intensifying across multiple axes (Lviv, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv), suggesting a coordinated effort to probe air defense (AD) density ahead of potential larger strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian MoD is struggling with the Starlink "Whitelist" blockade. The query from "Dva Mayora" indicates a loss of reliable frontline C2 for units that previously relied on grey-market terminals.
Air Operations: Russia is employing a "omni-directional" UAV approach, including deep-rear strikes (Lviv) to force the dispersion of Ukrainian AD assets. The use of KABs in Dnipropetrovsk indicates continued tactical aviation pressure on logistics nodes.
Intentions: Foreign Minister Lavrov’s rhetoric regarding "Russian patience" and the "energy truce of 2025" suggests Moscow is framing the current infrastructure destruction as a response to Ukrainian "violations," likely to provide diplomatic cover during the Moscow-based OSCE/Swiss talks.
Course of Action: A claim of capturing "Svitle" suggests a localized push in the Donetsk sector to capitalize on environmental stress and potential Ukrainian rotations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Success: The "Phoenix" drone unit (Presidential Brigade/STERNENKO) reports successful interdiction of Russian logistics in the Kostyantynivka direction. This is critical for stalling Russian momentum toward the H-20 highway.
Morale/Personnel: The return of 157 POWs is a significant event. President Zelenskiy also honored the State Special Transport Service (DSST), emphasizing the importance of logistics and infrastructure protection.
Readiness: UAF continues to demonstrate high AD proficiency, downing UAVs as far west as Lviv, though the frequency of KAB strikes in the south remains a significant challenge for ground troops.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Coordinated Peace Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) and Western political figures (Trump) are simultaneously pushing a "settlement is close" narrative. This is assessed as a high-intensity influence operation (INFOOP) designed to:
Encourage Ukrainian hesitation on the front.
Legitimize the presence of Swiss/OSCE mediators in Moscow.
Create a public perception that the US is bypassing Kyiv.
Black Propaganda: Russian channels (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor) are circulating videos alleging "conscription hunting" in Odesa and "starving" UAF troops. These are low-credibility but high-volume efforts to degrade domestic Ukrainian stability.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within the next 6-12 hours, Russia will launch a coordinated UAV/Missile strike targeting the Kyiv-Chernihiv corridor. The vectors reported at 1533Z suggest an evening "swarm" arrival to stress the damaged Darnytska TPP-4 during peak evening loads.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian mechanized breakthrough in the Svitle/Kostyantynivka sector. If the claim of Svitle's fall is true, Russia may attempt to exploit the -27°C conditions to bypass frozen Ukrainian defensive lines before reinforcements can arrive.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of the control status of "Svitle" (Svetloye). Identify if the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment has established a stable bridgehead or if this was a transient raid.
[HIGH] SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of the Chernihiv-Kyiv vector to identify if UAVs are being used as decoys for a follow-on Kh-101/Kalibr missile wave.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the 157 returned POWs' debriefs regarding Russian frontline troop concentrations and the status of UAF personnel still in the Kostyantynivka sector.
