DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH: US and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi have agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue and are discussing a six-month extension of the New START (DSNV) treaty (1320Z, 1326Z, TASS, HIGH).
POW EXCHANGE COMPLETED: 150 Ukrainian military personnel and 7 civilians (total 157) were successfully returned; notably, this group included individuals "illegally convicted" by Russian courts (1321Z, 1325Z, RBK-UA/Hayabusa, HIGH).
INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE: Multiple Russian strikes confirmed against the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Kyiv, causing significant damage during a period of extreme cold (1322Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
GROUND MANEUVER: The Russian MoD has officially claimed the capture of Stepanovka (DNR) and Staroukrainka (Zaporizhzhia region) (1347Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM). Note: These claims were previously flagged as unconfirmed; UA sources have yet to verify loss of control.
ENERGY COOPERATION: President Zelenskyy and Polish PM Tusk announced a joint initiative to increase Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies from Poland to Ukraine to stabilize the energy sector (1336Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT EXPANSION: Russian UAVs have transitioned from Volyn and are now confirmed on a heading toward the Lviv region (1349Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is split between high-level diplomatic signaling in Abu Dhabi and a sustained "City-Kill" kinetic strategy targeting Ukrainian energy nodes.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are attempting to consolidate gains in the southern and eastern axes (Stepanovka/Staroukrainka) while simultaneously using long-range assets to pressure the western logistics corridor (Lviv/Volyn).
Environmental Factors: Sub-zero temperatures (-27°C) remain the primary operational constraint. The strike on the Darnytsia TPP is a direct attempt to weaponize the weather by collapsing Kyiv's heating grid.
Force Disposition: A rare de-escalation signal has emerged via the agreement to resume US-RU military-to-military dialogue, though this has not yet translated to a reduction in frontline intensity.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment & Capabilities:
Strategic Aviation & Munitions: Heavy reliance on KAB (guided glide bombs) continues in the Kherson and Donetsk sectors (1336Z, 1346Z). The timing of strikes on energy infrastructure suggests a coordinated effort to influence the "atmosphere" of the Abu Dhabi negotiations.
Tactical Ground Advance: Russian forces are claiming incremental breakthroughs in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk axes. If the capture of Staroukrainka is confirmed, it suggests a push to widen the salient in the southern sector.
Electronic Warfare & UAVs: Despite losing five UAVs (3 Zala, 2 Gerbera) to the Ukrainian SUNSTRIKE unit (1339Z), RU forces maintain a high volume of drone sorties targeting Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Western Ukraine.
Hybrid Operations: High-level Russian officials (Moskalkova) are framing civilians from the Kursk region as "hostages" in Ukraine (1333Z), likely to create a counter-narrative to the successful POW exchange.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
Air Defense: UAF is actively tracking and engaging multiple UAV vectors. Successful interceptions of Zala and Gerbera reconnaissance drones indicate effective localized counter-UAV measures.
Logistical Resilience: Power was successfully restored in Zaporizhzhia following previous disruptions (1331Z), demonstrating high repair-crew readiness despite the threat of secondary strikes.
Strategic Coordination: The meeting with PM Tusk secures a medium-term energy lifeline via Polish LNG, mitigating some risk from Russian strikes on TPPs.
Internal Security: The State Prosecutor’s office is maintaining domestic stability by pursuing high-level corruption cases (e.g., Poltava law enforcement), ensuring that rear-area exploitation does not degrade the war effort (1331Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Disinformation: Pro-Russian channels (War DV) are attempting to demoralize the 110th Ombr by circulating claims that the command is prioritizing "croissant discounts" over casualty reporting (1330Z). This is a textbook character assassination of a unit's leadership.
Diplomatic Signaling: Both sides are using the Abu Dhabi talks to project a willingness to negotiate. However, a potential "future-dated" photo anomaly in reports about a trilateral meeting (1326Z) suggests a possible Russian-aligned disinformation effort to manufacture a sense of "imminent peace" to decrease Western urgency in aid delivery.
Iranian Escalation: Reports of Iran seizing oil tankers in the Persian Gulf (1339Z) may be a coordinated distraction or a horizontal escalation by a Russian partner to stretch Western naval resources away from the European theater.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will maintain the UAV pressure on Lviv and Western Ukraine to force UAF to reposition air defense assets away from Kyiv and the frontlines.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Following the Darnytsia TPP strike, Russia may launch a follow-on "darkening" strike on the remaining Kyiv energy hubs (Tripilska or Kyiv HPP) to force a total evacuation of the capital during the diplomatic window.
Timeline: 6-12 hours. High probability of kinetic impact in the Lviv/Western region as the tracked UAVs reach their targets.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Verify UA control status of Stepanovka (DNR) and Staroukrainka (Zaporizhzhia) through independent satellite or geolocation of UA 110th/equivalent units.
[HIGH] Assess the operational status of the Darnytsia TPP; determine if the heating loop for the Darnytskyi district is fully severed.
[MEDIUM] Investigate the "temporal inconsistency" (future-dated photo) in the RBK-Ukraine report regarding the trilateral meeting to determine if the source was compromised or if it was a technical error.
