KINETIC ACTIVITY – DEEP STRIKE ON ROSTOV TEC (2122Z, RBK-Ukraine/НгП раZVедка, HIGH): Corroborated reports of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting the Rostov Thermal Power Plant (TEC). This represents a significant retaliatory escalation against Russian energy infrastructure.
C2 DEGRADATION – STARLINK "WHITE LIST" IMPACT (2125Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Reports indicate the activation of Starlink "white lists" in Ukraine, purportedly causing communication blackouts for forward assault groups in the Kupyansk sector. UNCONFIRMED; may be a result of technical error, solar activity, or Russian PSYOP.
AIR THREAT – SHAHED INGRESS (2117Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple strike UAVs (Shaheds) detected moving from Sumy Oblast toward Chernihiv and Kyiv.
REGIONAL KINETIC INTENSITY – ZAPORIZHZHIA (2119Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Persistent, targeted Russian strikes reported across Zaporizhzhia city and oblast throughout the day.
GEOPOLITICAL FRICTION – NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT (2114Z, TASS, HIGH): China has officially rejected US efforts to include Beijing in the current RU-US nuclear disarmament framework, maintaining strategic ambiguity.
TACTICAL KINETIC – FPV OPERATIONS (2105Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel in winter conditions, demonstrating continued UAF tactical drone efficacy despite solar-induced GPS degradation.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk/Northeast: Potential critical C2 failure. If reports of Starlink "white listing" are accurate, UAF assault groups may be operating without real-time synchronization with higher headquarters (2125Z). This coincides with existing pressure on the sector.
Northern Front (Kyiv/Chernihiv): Air defense systems are likely engaging or preparing to engage a wave of Shahed UAVs (2117Z). The vector suggests a focus on the capital’s energy or C2 nodes.
Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia): The region is under "targeted" bombardment (2119Z), likely aimed at preventing the consolidation of UAF reserves or disrupting logistical hubs supporting the southern line.
Deep Rear (Russia - Rostov): The strike on the Rostov TEC (2122Z) demonstrates UAF's ability to penetrate Russian AD in the Rostov region, likely intended to force Russia to divert AD assets from the front to protect critical infrastructure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining its "City-Kill" strategy through persistent strikes on Zaporizhzhia and the launch of Shahed swarms toward Kyiv.
C2 Exploitation: Russian mil-bloggers are quickly highlighting UAF communication failures (Starlink). Russian forces in Kupyansk may attempt to exploit the reported 2125Z blackout with localized surges.
Propaganda Adaptation: Russian channels are selectively editing President Zelenskyy's interviews (France 2) to frame Ukrainian leadership as unrealistic or deceptive regarding the war's timeline (2104Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: The strike on Rostov TEC indicates UAF has maintained long-range UAV capabilities despite the X-class solar flare impacting GPS. This suggests the use of alternative navigation (optical flow, inertial, or CRPA-equipped receivers).
Tactical Persistence: FPV units remain active (2105Z). UAF is likely using the winter terrain to fix Russian movements for drone interdiction.
C2 Challenges: The Air Force is actively tracking and reporting drone threats in real-time (2117Z), though the reported Starlink issues in Kupyansk represent a significant friction point for ground forces.
Information environment / disinformation
Starlink Narrative: The "white list" claim (2125Z) is currently being pushed by pro-Russian sources. It may be a misinterpretation of service outages caused by the solar flare, or a deliberate attempt to cause panic among UAF front-line units.
Zelenskyy Discreditation: Coordinated efforts to frame the President’s "less than a year" victory hope as a "clownish" statement (2104Z) are intended to erode domestic trust and international support.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Shahed strikes on Kyiv/Chernihiv energy infrastructure within the 0000Z-0400Z window. Continued Russian pressure in Kupyansk to test the reported comms blackout.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis strike (Shaheds + Cruise Missiles) taking advantage of the solar flare's peak degradation of UA radar/GPS to strike the Kharkiv energy lifeline or the newly arrived 145MW equipment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify Starlink status in Kupyansk. Determine if "white listing" is a centralized policy change, a technical glitch, or a Russian EW effect.
[HIGH] Assess BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Rostov TEC strike. Determine if the plant's output to the Southern Military District's logistics network is compromised.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for Tu-95/Tu-22M3 takeoffs following the Shahed ingress, which would signal a transition from a "probing" UAV attack to a massive missile strike.
