COMBINED DEEP STRIKE – BRYANSK (0646Z, TASS/AV Bogomaz, HIGH): Ukrainian forces launched a coordinated strike using HIMARS, Neptune missiles, and fixed-wing UAVs against targets in Bryansk Oblast. Russian sources report damage to residential and civilian infrastructure.
POKROVSK OPERATIONAL INTENSITY (0643Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): The General Staff reports 35 out of 153 total combat engagements in the last 24h occurred in the Pokrovsk sector, confirming it as the Russian Main Effort (ME).
CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEGRADATION (0657Z, Ukrenergo/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Emergency power outages have been expanded across multiple regions following the confirmed strike on the Konotop grid node (Sumy).
BLACK SEA RECONNAISSANCE (0651Z, UAF Air Force, MEDIUM): A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active in the Black Sea near Zatoka/Serhiivka, likely identifying targets for potential sea-launched missile strikes or monitoring maritime corridors.
DOBROPILLIA SALIENT PRESSURE (0634Z, Paratrooper's Diary, MEDIUM): Russian tactical sources indicate intensified fighting around the Bilytske/Rodinske sector, characterizing the area as the "Dobropillia salient."
AVIATION SURGE – VREMYIVKA (0647Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): The 11th Air Force (Vostok Group) has increased bombing intensity against Ukrainian positions in the Vremyivka sector using FAB-series munitions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity Russian push in the Pokrovsk sector and a systematic attempt to collapse the Ukrainian energy grid. The battlefield is currently experiencing extreme cold (-20°C), which Russia is leveraging by targeting critical heat and power nodes. Ukrainian forces have responded with a high-value combined strike into Russian territory (Bryansk), signaling a refusal to maintain a purely reactive posture.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Main Effort (Pokrovsk): Russia is committing approximately 23% of its total daily offensive capacity to the Pokrovsk axis. The focus has shifted toward the Bilytske/Rodinske line, attempting to create a salient that threatens the logistical hub of Dobropillia.
Aviation: The Vostok Group is utilizing tactical aviation to soften the Vremyivka sector, likely in preparation for a renewed ground assault toward the H-15 highway.
Reconnaissance: The presence of a UAV near Zatoka (0651Z) suggests a "search-and-strike" mission targeting coastal infrastructure or Western aid transit points.
Internal Security: RU forces claim to have neutralized an internal "terrorist" cell in a Krasnodar penal colony (0648Z), likely a pretext for further crackdowns on dissent or recruitment.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Strikes: UAF demonstrated high-tier multi-domain coordination in the Bryansk strike, successfully integrating HIMARS with indigenous Neptune missiles to bypass RU AD.
Defensive Operations: UAF continues to trade space for time in the Pokrovsk sector, managing 35 high-intensity engagements in 24 hours. However, the energy crisis (emergency outages) is impacting the sustainability of rear-area command, control, and communications (C3).
Resilience: Ongoing national remembrance (0658Z) and high-volume grassroots fundraising (0634Z, Hayabusa) indicate that domestic morale remains resilient despite the "City-Kill" energy campaign.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Reports of a "New Abu Dhabi" round (0657Z) and Macron’s imminent call to Putin (0700Z) suggest a flurry of "back-channel" diplomacy. RU sources are framing these talks as an opportunity to cement territorial gains.
Disinformation/Propaganda: RU-aligned channels are heavily promoting a "mourning" narrative in Nova Kakhovka (0701Z) to distract from the 100+ drone strikes launched against Ukrainian civilians overnight.
Economic Impact: Reports from Karelia (0644Z) regarding "financial challenges" and public apologies from RU officials suggest the economic strain of the war is reaching a tipping point in Russia's northern regions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will exploit the current emergency outages by launching a follow-up wave of UAVs/missiles tonight to prevent the restoration of the grid, specifically targeting repair crews and localized substations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A tactical breakthrough in the Bilytske/Rodinske sector (Dobropillia salient) that allows RU forces to bring Dobropillia under tube artillery range, effectively severing the primary supply line for the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defense.
Timeline: The next 6-12 hours will likely see a spike in "Lefter" (NW) moving UAVs as detected in previous reports, aiming for Poltava/Dnipro.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
EXPECT: Continued emergency power shutdowns across central/eastern Ukraine. High probability of Russian tactical aviation strikes in the Vremyivka sector. Ukrainian AD will likely face a multi-vector threat (UAVs + potential Kalibr/Iskander strikes) as RU attempts to capitalize on the "City-Kill" momentum.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the operational status of the Neptune missile launch platforms following the Bryansk strike; assess RU counter-battery response.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of the "Dobropillia salient" (Bilytske/Rodinske); confirm if RU ground forces have established fire control over the T0515 highway.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the cargo of the detained Baltic Spirit in Estonia for evidence of "shadow fleet" logistics or dual-use technology smuggling.
