NEW UAV VECTOR – CHERNIHIV OBLAST (0436Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): One OWA UAV detected passing Baturyn, moving on a north-western course, expanding the geographic scope of the current aerial assault.
URBAN UAV THREAT – ZAPORIZHZHIA CITY (0502Z, Air Force UAF / Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Enemy UAV confirmed over Zaporizhzhia city; local air defense alerts active.
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT – VREMYEVKA DIRECTION (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army (Vostok Group) reported conducting daily bombing runs against UAF positions on the Vremyevka axis, supported by real-time drone reconnaissance.
TACTICAL REVIEW – SUMY BORDER SECTOR (0500Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Release of a localized offensive summary for "Gv Sever" units (North Group) indicates a sustained pattern of cross-border raids and tactical adjustments in the Sumy border region dating back to late 2025.
UA UAV ACTIVITY – RUSSIAN CLAIMS (0441Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): Reiteration of RU MoD claims that 24 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted overnight. (UNCONFIRMED).
STRATEGIC COOPERATION – ESTONIA (0500Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Estonia has unveiled "Energy Shield" proposals/technologies specifically designed to harden Ukrainian urban centers against blackout-inducing strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains dominated by extreme cold (-27°C) and a multi-vector Russian aerial campaign. The enemy has expanded its UAV operations from the Kharkiv-Sumy-Pavlohrad triangle to include Chernihiv (Baturyn) and a direct penetration of Zaporizhzhia urban airspace. The synchronization of fighter-bomber sorties (0437Z) with these UAV incursions suggests a "hunter-killer" package intended to suppress air defense and strike infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aviation Operations: The 11th Guards Air Force (Vostok Group) is maintaining high sortie rates in the Vremyevka direction (0500Z). This indicates the enemy is not allowing the freeze to grounding CAS (Close Air Support) or tactical bombing, likely utilizing the clear skies associated with high-pressure cold fronts for visual/thermal targeting.
Sumy/Chernihiv Infiltration: Rybar’s reporting on "Gv Sever" operations (0500Z) confirms that the northern border is not a static line but an active theater of hybrid maneuvers. The UAV passing Baturyn (0436Z) may be an ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) asset mapping northern utility corridors or air defense gaps for follow-on cruise missile strikes.
Tactical Disposition: Russian forces are increasingly integrating drone-supported aviation strikes with localized ground pressure to prevent UAF from rotating troops out of frozen frontline positions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Response: UAF Air Force is actively managing a saturated airspace with confirmed intercepts or tracking in Sumy, Chernihiv, Pavlohrad, and Zaporizhzhia.
Energy Resilience: Active engagement with Estonia on "Energy Shield" technologies (0500Z) suggests a pivot toward long-term hardening of the grid, though this provides no immediate relief for the current "City-Kill" pressure in Kharkiv and Sumy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Historical Framing: Pro-Russian channels are commemorating the Yalta Conference (Feb 4, 1945) (0444Z). This is likely a deliberate effort to frame current operations within a "Great Power" narrative, suggesting a desire for a new global partition or "Yalta 2.0" ahead of upcoming diplomatic talks.
Domestic Distraction: Russian state media (TASS) continues to saturate the feed with domestic crime (school attacks, 0437Z) and economic shifts (Bitcoin drop, 0434Z), likely to bury reports of casualties or the logistical strain of the winter offensive.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The UAV currently over Zaporizhzhia (0502Z) is likely a spotter for a follow-on Iskander-M or S-300 (in surface-to-surface mode) strike on the city's heating or electrical distribution hubs. In the next 6 hours, expect Chernihiv and Sumy to face secondary waves as the first wave of UAVs depletes local mobile fire group (MFG) ammunition.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Gv Sever" ground incursion across the Sumy border, timed with the peak of the infrastructure collapse in Kharkiv, intended to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian strategic reserves from the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The threat remains CRITICAL for the energy infrastructure of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The expansion of the UAV flight paths into Chernihiv suggests the enemy is testing the northern periphery of the Kyiv air defense bubble.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the UAV over Zaporizhzhia (0502Z) is providing real-time targeting data for the 11th Air Force bombers reported in the Vremyevka direction.
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the Vremyevka bombing runs (0500Z) on UAF forward defensive positions; confirm if the "Gv Sever" group is mobilizing for a larger cross-border push in Sumy.
[MEDIUM] Verify the status of the "Baltic Spirit" cargo (arrested in Estonia) to see if it was carrying parts for the Russian energy grid or UAV components.
