INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE – KHARKIV (KYIVSKYI DISTRICT) (0333Z, RBK-Ukraine/Mayor Terekhov, HIGH): A "Molniya" type UAV strike has impacted an infrastructure facility. No casualties reported; damage assessment ongoing.
NEW UAV WAVE – CHUHUIV/PECHENIHY (0334Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): OWA UAVs detected moving south from the northern border toward the Chuhuiv and Pechenihy axis.
AIR RAID CLEARANCE – ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (0403Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): All-clear signal issued for the Zaporizhzhia region following earlier KAB and UAV threats.
IDENTIFICATION OF BUCHA WAR CRIME SUSPECTS (0401Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Ukrainian investigators have identified 211 suspects in relation to the Bucha atrocities.
CROWDSOURCED LOGISTICS – DONETSK SECTOR (0401Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources have launched a crowdfunding campaign for special units in the Donetsk direction, indicating sustained supply requirements for high-intensity operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The "City-Kill" campaign continues to prioritize the Kharkiv urban center. While the immediate aerial threat to Zaporizhzhia has subsided (All-clear 0403Z), the Kharkiv-Dnipro axis remains under active engagement. The temperature remains critical at -27°C, amplifying the impact of any infrastructure damage. The use of "Molniya" drones—light, low-cost assets—suggests an attempt to saturate air defenses or strike specific soft targets like electrical substations or heating manifolds.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shifts: The deployment of "Molniya" drones (0333Z) indicates a move toward smaller, more difficult-to-intercept tactical UAVs to complement larger Geran-2/Shahed waves. These are being used for precision strikes on urban infrastructure.
Vector Analysis: The movement toward Chuhuiv and Pechenihy (0334Z) is significant. Pechenihy houses critical water management infrastructure (the reservoir), which, if compromised during this freeze, would lead to catastrophic downstream effects for the Kharkiv region's utility stability.
Sustainment: The reliance on "Narodny Front" fundraising for Donetsk special units (0401Z) suggests that despite the 260th GRAU Arsenal's activity, specific tactical gear and specialized equipment for frontline assault groups remain a bottleneck for the Russian MoD.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense (AD) Performance: UAF AD successfully cleared the Zaporizhzhia threat corridor by 0403Z. However, the strike in Kharkiv's Kyivskyi district (0333Z) confirms that low-signature tactical drones like the "Molniya" are finding gaps in the urban AD umbrella.
Legal/Human Rights Operations: Continued progress in the Bucha investigation (211 suspects identified) maintains international focus on RU accountability, countering the "negotiation by fire" narrative ahead of Abu Dhabi.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Internal Friction Exploitation: Russian propaganda (Operation Z, 0334Z) is weaponizing statements by Ukrainian MP Nahornyak to foster distrust between the Ukrainian civilian population and the Cabinet of Ministers regarding energy mismanagement.
Morale Operations: Pro-Russian channels continue to broadcast VDV (Airborne) "successes" (0401Z) to maintain domestic support for the winter offensive despite high attrition and extreme weather.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Over the next 6 hours, Russian forces will concentrate UAV strikes on the Pechenihy/Chuhuiv corridor to isolate Kharkiv from its eastern water and energy support nodes while attempting to restart the UAV push toward Dnipro.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Pechenihy Dam or its associated infrastructure during the -27°C freeze, aiming to cause immediate freezing of the water supply and massive ice-related damage to the urban distribution network.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High risk to the Kharkiv-Chuhuiv-Pechenihy triangle. The focus has shifted from Zaporizhzhia back to the northern industrial nodes. Energy infrastructure remains the primary target.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the "Molniya" drone strike in Kharkiv (0333Z) targeted a substation already weakened by previous KAB strikes.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of UAV numbers moving toward Pechenihy (0334Z) to assess if this is a saturation attack or a precision strike.
[MEDIUM] Impact of the -27°C freeze on "Molniya" drone battery life and sensor performance; identify if current RU UAV activity is limited by temperature thresholds.
[UNCONFIRMED] Claims of successful logistics strikes by VKS (from 0306Z report) remain unverified; BDA required for rail and road nodes connecting Dnipro to the eastern front.
