US-UAE-RU DIPLOMATIC CONFIRMATION (2111Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The White House has confirmed that Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner will join the trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
VIOLATION OF "ENERGY TRUCE" REQUEST (2116Z, Zelenskiy Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed a personal request from the US President to halt strikes on energy infrastructure during diplomacy; current Russian kinetic activity is now framed as a direct defiance of US diplomatic overtures.
KRAMATORSK KINETIC STRIKE (2120Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports of a significant arrival ("prilet") in Kramatorsk, marking the start of a coordinated nightly aerial offensive.
RECORD UAV INTERDICTION (2105Z, Tsaplienko/SBU, HIGH): SBU "Alpha" units have reportedly established a record for the number of fixed-wing enemy UAVs downed, indicating high proficiency in mobile AD despite environmental degradation.
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR ALERT ENDURANCE (2106Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The air raid alert in the region has exceeded 27 consecutive hours, indicating a sustained state of "siege-by-fire."
INTERNAL SECURITY INCIDENT (MOSCOW) (2130Z, TASS, HIGH): A shootout on the Rublyovskoye Highway has led to a criminal case regarding an attempt on a law enforcement officer’s life, suggesting heightened internal volatility in the Russian capital.
IRANIAN NAVAL PROVOCATION (2130Z, WSJ/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Six armed Iranian boats reportedly approached the US-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a possible multi-theater synchronization of tensions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is dominated by a -27°C deep freeze and a "Negotiation by Fire" posture from the Russian Federation. While diplomatic channels in Abu Dhabi are formalizing with US representation, Russia has accelerated its "City-Kill" campaign, specifically targeting the Kharkiv-Dnipro-Poltava axis to leverage the extreme cold against Ukrainian urban resilience.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Sectors of Focus:
Poltava/Dnipropetrovsk: Current Shahed ingress patterns (2113Z, 2119Z) show a southern and south-eastern vector, likely converging on Dnipro or critical transit hubs.
Donbas (Kramatorsk): The transition from drone harassment to kinetic missile/heavy-ordnance strikes (2120Z) suggests a systematic attempt to degrade the rear-area logistics of the eastern front.
Tactical Changes: RU forces are ignoring the "Energy Truce" requested by the US, likely to maximize leverage before Witkoff and Kushner begin formal sessions.
Rear/Sustainment: In Belgorod, authorities are desperately shifting to reserve power generation following Ukrainian retaliatory strikes (2116Z). This indicates the Russian border region's energy grid is reaching a failure point similar to Kharkiv's.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Air Defense: Despite GPS degradation (solar flare baseline), SBU "Alpha" units are successfully adapting to interdict fixed-wing UAVs. However, the 27-hour alert in Zaporizhzhia is causing significant operational fatigue for ground-based AD crews.
Civil Stability:UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE reports from Russian sources claim protests in Kryvyi Rih regarding power outages (2126Z). If true, this indicates the "City-Kill" strategy is generating intended friction within the Ukrainian rear.
Resource Management: UAF units (CyberBoroshno) continue to rely on decentralized crowdfunding for vehicle maintenance, highlighting persistent gaps in formal logistical pipelines for front-line units (2130Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Framing: Zelenskyy is strategically utilizing the US "request" for a strike halt to place the burden of escalation on Moscow in the eyes of the incoming US delegation.
Internal Russian Friction: The legal dispute in Ivanovo regarding translation fees for foreign nationals and the Moscow shooting are being amplified by RU "Z-channels" (Alex Parker) to criticize state spending and internal security, suggesting a fractured domestic narrative.
Global Hybrid Ops: The inclusion of FIFA's Infantino on the "Myrotvorets" list (2105Z) and the Iranian naval activity (2130Z) serve as distractors and indicators of a broader, multi-domain confrontation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A heavy nocturnal saturation attack involving Shaheds and cruise missiles targeting the Dnipro and Poltava energy nodes. RU will likely attempt to force a total blackout in these regions before the morning temperature trough.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the Kramatorsk strike as a precursor to a wider "decapitation" strike on regional administration centers in eastern Ukraine while diplomats are in transit to Abu Dhabi, creating a fait accompli on the ground.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Verify the scale and impact of the Kramatorsk strike; determine if it targeted rail infrastructure or troop concentrations.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU Naval movements in the Black Sea to see if the Iranian activity in Hormuz is being used as a signal for coordinated maritime pressure.
[LOW] Confirm validity of "protests" in Kryvyi Rih; distinguish between organic civilian frustration and RU-sponsored psychological operations (PSYOP).
