DARNYTSIA CHP DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (1941Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Official reports confirm repairs to the Darnytsia Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant in Kyiv will take "significant time." This extends the projected heating crisis for the capital indefinitely.
RU CAPTURE OF PETROVKA (1938Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian Vostok Group claims the capture of Petrovka (Zaporizhzhia region). UNCONFIRMED by UA sources, but consistent with recent pressure on the Pridorozhne axis.
POKROVSK SECTOR ESCALATION (1935Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RU forces have reached the outskirts of Bilytske (North of Rodynske). Drone footage confirms active combat operations in this area; pre-war population was 8,000+.
SUMY KAB STRIKES (1944Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RU tactical aviation has commenced launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against the Sumy region, indicating an expansion of the aerial bombardment corridor.
UAF OFFENSIVE TRAINING (1948Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Release of footage showing "large scale" winter training for UA units focused on offensive maneuvers, likely a strategic signal ahead of Abu Dhabi negotiations.
UA DEFENSIVE SUCCESS (NOVOPAVLIVKA) (1954Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): National Guard "Lasar’s Group" successfully repelled a RU mechanized assault, confirming the destruction of multiple RU tanks in the Novopavlivskyi direction.
ZELENSKY RESPONSE TO US STANCE (1944Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): President Zelensky has publicly stated he is "awaiting a US reaction" to the massive energy strikes, following White House statements that the US administration was "not surprised."
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy): The threat to Sumy has escalated from UAVs to KABs (1944Z). In Kyiv, the heating outlook is critical; the "significant time" required for Darnytsia CHP repairs (1941Z) suggests residential heating circuits may face catastrophic failure if temperatures remain at -27°C.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Novopavlivka): RU forces are expanding their footprint north of the Pokrovsk salient toward Bilytske (1935Z). To the south, in the Novopavlivka direction, UA National Guard units have maintained defensive integrity against armored thrusts (1954Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The loss of Petrovka (1938Z), if confirmed, indicates a 3-5km penetration by RU Vostok Group. Logistical strain is noted on RU units; VDV personnel are reportedly sleeping in substandard conditions (on the ground/under wood) despite the deep freeze (2001Z).
Russian Rear (Belgorod): Local administration is attempting to stabilize the utility collapse. Water and heat are being transitioned to "reserve generators," and fuel stocks are reportedly sufficient, though heating points have not yet been deployed (1940Z).
Enemy analysis / threat assessment
Course of Action: RU is attempting to collapse the "corners" of the Pokrovsk salient by pushing toward Bilytske while simultaneously maintaining pressure in Zaporizhzhia (Petrovka).
Logistics & Sustainment: Despite tactical gains, RU forward units (VDV in Zaporizhzhia) are suffering from extreme environmental exposure (2001Z). This suggests RU command is prioritizing tempo over force preservation ahead of the Feb 4 talks.
Capability: Expansion of KAB strikes to Sumy (1944Z) indicates RU tactical aviation is testing UA air defense density in previously lower-intensity sectors.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UA continues to demonstrate high-efficiency anti-armor capabilities in the Novopavlivka direction, successfully defeating mechanized assaults (1954Z).
Strategic Signaling: UA is utilizing information channels to showcase offensive readiness (1948Z), likely to counter the "inevitability" narrative being pushed by RU and certain international actors.
Diplomatic Posture: Kyiv is forcing a public clarification of the US position, with Zelensky directly calling for a response to the "City-Kill" strikes (1944Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Distraction Narratives: RU-aligned channels are flooding the information space with Epstein-related conspiracy theories (1941Z, 1951Z) and unconfirmed reports of the death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi (1933Z). This is a classic "chaff" tactic to divert international attention from the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
"Not Surprised" Narrative: RU continues to weaponize White House Press Secretary Leavitt’s comments to frame UA's energy crisis as a pre-negotiated or accepted condition of the new US administration (1959Z).
S-400 Status: CyberBoroshno (1958Z) released composite imagery regarding the S-400. This remains UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence) and appears to be part of a prolonged information battle regarding UA deep-strike effectiveness.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will increase the volume of KAB strikes in the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors to further stress the UA energy grid and AD mobility. Ground pressure on Bilytske will likely intensify into a full urban assault.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU exploits the reported capture of Petrovka to launch a rapid mechanized push toward the main Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk transit corridors, seeking a "breakthrough" headline immediately before the Abu Dhabi talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of RU control over Petrovka (Zaporizhzhia) via independent geolocation or UA official reporting.
[HIGH] Assessment of RU troop concentrations in the Sumy border region following the commencement of KAB strikes.
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of the operational status of the 260th GRAU Arsenal; monitor for signs of missile distribution to launch platforms.
