NATIONAL AIR ALERT / MiG-31K SORTIE (1657Z-1702Z, KMVA/Air Force UA, HIGH): A nationwide air alert is active following the take-off of a Russian MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier). A high-speed target is currently confirmed inbound for Kharkiv.
CASUALTY ESCALATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (1632Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): The number of wounded from the strike on a residential district has risen to seven, including one child.
TACTICAL SUCCESS IN ILLINIVKA (1653Z, DeepState, HIGH): The Ukrainian 157th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) successfully engaged Russian forces attempting to take cover in industrial hangars in Illinivka (Donetsk sector).
MOBILE UAV LAUNCH ADAPTATION (1646Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): Russian forces are reportedly operationalizing "Geran-2" (Shahed-136) drones using highly mobile, improvised launch platforms to increase survivability and launch flexibility.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ALERTS (1702Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): A "rocket danger" alert has been activated in the Bryansk region (Russia), with regional authorities ordering civilians to shelters.
PUTIN ECONOMIC BRIEFING (1641Z-1655Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Vladimir Putin claimed a 1% GDP growth for 2025 and projected a 5% inflation target for 2026, likely aimed at projecting domestic stability during the winter offensive.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Northern Axis: High-intensity threat environment. Russian forces have launched a "massive strike" on objects in the Kharkiv region (1656Z). High-speed ballistic targets are currently entering Kharkiv airspace (1702Z), coinciding with the -27°C "City-Kill" infrastructure campaign.
Donetsk/Illinivka: Tactical engagements continue. UAF 157th OMBr is actively clearing Russian elements from the Illinivka sector, utilizing drone-corrected strikes on Russian infantry in buildings (1653Z).
Zaporizhzhia: The sector remains a focus for Russian standoff strikes. Rescue operations are ongoing following the strike on a residential sleeping area. Traffic disruptions are reported near the strike zones (1655Z).
Rear/Infrastructure: A nationwide alert is currently in effect. The combination of the MiG-31K sortie and previous damage to the Kyiv CHPP (from 1622Z) places extreme stress on the national power grid and heating infrastructure during the deep freeze.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/Missiles: Russia is maintaining a "Negotiation by Fire" posture. The launch of the MiG-31K (1658Z) during an extreme freeze serves a dual purpose: potential destruction of high-value targets and psychological pressure on the civilian population.
UAV Adaptations: The shift toward mobile, improvised launch platforms for "Geran-2" drones (1646Z) suggests a tactical adaptation to counter UAF counter-battery or pre-emptive strikes on known launch sites.
Course of Action: The most likely intent is a "double-tap" on Kharkiv—hitting energy or residential infrastructure immediately after the thermal grid has already been strained by previous strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Currently in high-alert status nationwide. Focus is on intercepting high-speed targets (Kinzhal/Iskander-M) directed at Kharkiv and potentially Kyiv.
Ground Operations: UAF units (specifically 157th OMBr) are maintaining local initiatives in the Donetsk sector to disrupt Russian consolidation in settlements.
Logistics/Civil Defense: Zaporizhzhia regional authorities and Patrol Police are managing emergency routes and casualty evacuations under persistent threat of follow-up strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Info-Ops: Pro-Russian channels are attempting to inject historical/political "dirt" (purported Jeffrey Epstein/Larry Summers documents) into the info space to distract from current kinetic operations (1631Z).
Internal Russian Friction: Public disputes between Russian milbloggers over "content theft" (NgP Razvedka) suggest ongoing competition for influence and funding within the RU "Z-volunteer" ecosystem (1634Z).
Economic Messaging: State media is heavily promoting Putin's economic optimism (1% GDP growth) to counter the narrative of war-induced economic strain (1648Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Persistent missile and UAV pressure on Kharkiv and Dnipro over the next 6 hours to maximize infrastructure damage during the coldest overnight window (-28°C).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Kinzhal strike targeting the command-and-control nodes in Kyiv or a critical switching station, aimed at causing a cascading regional blackout that cannot be repaired in sub-zero temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the specific impact of the "high-speed target" on Kharkiv (1702Z) to assess grid stability.
[HIGH] Verify the location and composition of the "improvised mobile launch platforms" for Geran-2 drones to refine counter-UAS targeting.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Bryansk "rocket danger" alert (1702Z) to determine if this is a response to UAF cross-border activity or a Russian false-flag/precautionary measure.
