STARLINK "WHITE LIST" IMPLEMENTED (1131Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Ukraine has officially mandated a verification and registration program for all Starlink terminals. Only "white-listed" devices will remain operational, likely a countermeasure against Russian gray-market terminal use and unauthorized tactical access.
KYIV HEATING CRISIS ESCALATES (1126Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Over 1,100 residential buildings in Kyiv's Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts are confirmed without heating following massive overnight strikes. Conditions are critical given the -27°C temperature.
SUCCESSFUL UAF DRONE INTERDICTION - LYMAN (1106Z, Butusov/53rd OMBr, HIGH): Operators from the SIGNUM battalion (53rd Mechanized) confirmed multiple successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles and personnel in the Lyman sector.
CONTRADICTORY BDA ON KYIV TPPs (1107Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Conflicting reports regarding Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). RU sources claim TPP-4 is destroyed while alleging TPP-6 remains operational despite Ukrainian claims of damage.
FSB ENERGY SABOTAGE CLAIM (1108Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): Russian security services claim to have detained a foreign national in Moscow allegedly planning a strike on energy infrastructure. UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLE IO.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains dominated by extreme cold (-27°C), which the Russian Federation (RF) is weaponizing through targeted strikes on Kyiv's heat distribution network. The battlefield remains active with a focus on tactical attrition in the Lyman sector and Russian pressure toward the Pokrovsk logistical hub. Ukrainian command is actively hardening its C2 architecture through the new Starlink verification policy to mitigate unauthorized usage by RF forces.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy):
Infrastructure: The Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts are currently the epicenters of the heating crisis. Repairs are hampered by the extreme freeze and contradictory damage reports regarding TPP-4 and TPP-6 (1107Z, 1124Z).
Logistics: Financial volatility is noted, with the USD exchange rate rising in Ukrainian exchange offices (1112Z), potentially complicating immediate procurement of emergency supplies.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: RF forces claim to be pushing toward Suvorovo/Zatyshok (1126Z). If confirmed, this indicates a continued intent to envelop Pokrovsk from the southeast.
Tactical Movement: Russian Vostok Group forces are utilizing coordinated aerial reconnaissance and loitering munitions to suppress Ukrainian fire positions in the Zaporizhzhia border areas (1123Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Huliaipole-Dorozhnianka: Localized combat activity reported (1106Z). RF forces are attempting to consolidate gains following the previously reported loss of Pridorozhne.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: RF forces are continuing a multi-domain pressure campaign. Tactically, they are focusing on "point fire impact" using UAVs to prevent UAF from reinforcing positions (1123Z).
Hybrid Operations: The Russian Ministry of Defense and state media are aggressively reframing NATO Secretary General Rutte’s comments on post-war deployments as an immediate "existential threat" to justify continued escalation (1106Z).
Internal Security/IO: The reported arrest of a "saboteur" in Moscow (1108Z) is likely intended to mirror Ukrainian security successes and justify domestic crackdowns.
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
C2 Hardening: The implementation of the Starlink "white list" (1131Z) is a significant move to regain control over the tactical satellite domain. This directly addresses the intelligence gap regarding Russian gray-market Starlink usage.
Tactical Success: High-precision drone strikes in the Lyman sector demonstrate continued UAF technical proficiency in the face of electronic warfare and solar interference (1106Z).
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Infrastructure Propaganda: Russian channels are actively sowing confusion regarding the status of Kyiv's TPPs (1107Z, 1124Z), aiming to undermine Ukrainian official reporting on the extent of the energy crisis.
International Support Targeting: RU sources are amplifying pro-Maduro rallies in Moscow and domestic US political shifts (Texas elections) to project an image of a "fractured" West that is losing interest in Ukraine (1121Z, 1130Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity drone surveillance and localized assaults in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole sectors. Information operations will focus on exaggerating the collapse of the Kyiv heating grid to induce panic.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF breakthrough toward the Pokrovsk-highway while UAF units are transitioning to the new Starlink verification system, potentially leading to temporary communication lags at the squad level.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Confirm the operational status of Kyiv TPP-4 and TPP-6 through independent technical assessment or reliable ground assets.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of the Russian advance toward Suvorovo (Pokrovsk sector).
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the Starlink "white list" on UAF front-line communications. Assess if any units are experiencing "friendly fire" outages during the verification process.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the 53rd OMBr's current ammunition and drone battery stocks in the Lyman sector following high-intensity engagements.
