OFFICIAL TERMINATION OF "ENERGY TRUCE" (0956Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): The Russian MoD has officially declared the end of the "energy truce," confirming complex strikes against the Ukrainian power grid.
CRITICAL GRID INSTABILITY (0940Z, RBK-Ukraine/Ukrenergo, HIGH): Massive power outages confirmed across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia, and Odesa regions following missile and drone saturation.
NATO SECURITY GUARANTEES PROPOSED (0948Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): NATO Sec-Gen Rutte stated in Kyiv that upon reaching a peace agreement, NATO forces (air, sea, and ground) would be deployed to maintain Ukrainian security.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT: DNIPRO/KHARKIV (0940Z-0948Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Active ballistic launches from Kursk and tactical missiles moving through Kharkiv toward Dnipro; immediate "take cover" orders issued for Dnipro.
PRECISION STRIKE SUCCESS (0942Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): The UAF 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted a successful aviation strike on an enemy dugout in the Oleksandrivka direction.
ABU DHABI TALKS CONFIRMED (0940Z, TASS, HIGH): Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the second round of security talks in Abu Dhabi for Feb 4-5.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from "negotiation by fire" to a formalized campaign against Ukrainian strategic depth. The Russian MoD’s official admission of targeting the energy grid (0956Z) signals a shift toward total infrastructure degradation. Concurrently, high-level diplomacy is peaking with NATO Sec-Gen Rutte’s address to the Verkhovna Rada, which is being met with immediate Russian kinetic escalation. Environmental conditions remain extreme (-27°C), compounding the impact of power outages in Odesa, Vinnytsia, and the already crippled Kharkiv.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE (BY SECTOR)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Kursk/Sumy: Ukrainian forces repelled one Russian assault (0952Z). Ballistic missile launches from the Kursk region (0940Z) remain the primary threat to central Ukraine.
Kyiv: Significant power outages reported following the morning strike wave (0940Z). High-level diplomatic security remains active for the NATO delegation.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kharkiv):
Kharkiv: Sustained pressure in the South Slobozhansky direction with clashes near Vovchansk and Dvorichanske (0951Z). A missile transit toward Dnipro was detected over the oblast (0947Z).
Kupyansk/Lyman: High-intensity clashes reported near Zahryzove, Serednye, and Zarichne (0951Z).
Pokrovsk Direction: Enemy 56th Spetsnaz Brigade claims FPV drone strikes against UAF positions in Bilytske, Krasnoyarske, and Shevchenko (0958Z).
Oleksandrivka: UAF 110th Mech Brigade successfully neutralized an enemy strongpoint via aviation strike (0942Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Russian aviation conducted a wide-area strike campaign hitting 11 settlements, including Zaliznychne and Prymorske (0951Z). A new group of UAVs is currently loitering near Zaporizhzhia city (1000Z).
Kherson: UAF repelled one Russian assault in the Kherson operational sector (0952Z).
Dnipro: Under active ballistic threat; residents ordered to shelters as of 0948Z.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: Russia is synchronizing the official end of the "energy truce" with the eve of the Abu Dhabi talks (Feb 4-5) to maximize leverage. The focus has expanded from Kharkiv to include Odesa and Vinnytsia, suggesting an intent to disrupt southern logistics and western energy transit nodes.
Tactical Adaptations: Increased reliance on aviation strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector (11 settlements targeted simultaneously) suggests a saturation tactic intended to overwhelm local AD while GPS/HF degradation (solar flares) persists.
Internal Security: FSB activity in Russia (detention of a teenager for "sabotage") and the seizure of assets from corrupt officials (Максим Бондаренко, 250m rubles) indicate an ongoing internal "cleanup" to stabilize the home front during the offensive (0932Z, 0938Z).
4. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Defensive Operations: UAF continues to hold lines in the North and South, reporting repelled assaults in Kursk and Kherson (0952Z).
Kinetic Response: The 110th Mech Brigade's aviation strike demonstrates that despite the grid campaign, UAF tactical aviation remains operational and capable of precision ground support.
Legal/Support Initiatives: New internal initiatives for free legal assistance for military personnel and those on the registry are being rolled out (0940Z), likely to support mobilization and morale.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Signaling: NATO's Rutte is signaling a transition from "support as long as it takes" to "direct security intervention post-conflict," mentioning air, sea, and ground forces (0948Z, 0955Z).
Russian Counter-Narrative: Pro-Russian milbloggers (Alex Parker, Fighterbomber) are actively mocking Rutte’s promises as "delayed aid" and "post-war fantasies" to demoralize Ukrainian front-line troops (1000Z).
Disinformation: RU state media is emphasizing Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod (21 dead since Jan 1) to provide domestic justification for the "freeze-out" campaign (0941Z).
6. OUTLOOK (NEXT 6-12H)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A heavy ballistic and cruise missile wave targeting Dnipro and remaining power distribution hubs in Odesa to ensure the grid remains down overnight during the deep freeze.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Concurrent tactical ground breakthroughs in the Pokrovsk-Oleksandrivka sector while UAF C2 is distracted by the ballistic threat to Dnipro and the NATO diplomatic visit.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Real-time assessment of Dnipro's AD intercept rate against the current ballistic wave from Kursk.
[HIGH] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Odesa and Vinnytsia energy nodes—determine if damage is "repairable" or "Kharkiv-status" (unrepairable).
[MEDIUM] Verification of the 56th Spetsnaz claims in Bilytske/Shevchenko to determine if the Pokrovsk pocket is shrinking.
