AIR DEFENSE PERFORMANCE METRICS (0742Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Official confirmation of interception rates for the morning's massive strike. Total 38 of 71 missiles (53%) and 412 of 450 UAVs (91%) were shot down or suppressed.
SECOND MISSILE WAVE DETECTED (0756Z, Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): A new air raid alert has been declared for Kyiv and northern oblasts. High-speed targets, identified as Kh-22/32 missiles, were launched from the north, transiting Chernihiv/Slavutych toward Kyiv and Zhytomyr.
SIGNIFICANT ATTRITION IN SOUTH (0749Z, Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine, HIGH): UAF reports destroying nearly 200 personnel and 100 units of equipment in the last 24 hours, including 1 tank, 1 SAM system, and 20 drone operator teams.
SECURITY GUARANTEE LEAKS (0739Z, FT/Operational ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports emerge of a "72-hour" Western intervention clause in draft security guarantees if Russia launches a "repeat attack." This appears timed to bolster Ukrainian morale during the "freeze-out" campaign.
ONGOING KUPYANSK UNREST (0746Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Unconfirmed video suggests a volatile physical confrontation in or near Kupyansk; nature of the incident (civilian unrest vs. tactical breakthrough) remains unclear.
RENEWED UAV MOVEMENT (0734Z-0741Z, Air Force, HIGH): Follow-on Shahed-type UAVs detected in Dnipropetrovsk (heading west toward Vasylkivka) and Zaporizhzhia (near Vilniansk).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Zhytomyr): Currently the focal point of a second missile wave. Kh-22/32 missiles (notoriously difficult to intercept due to speed and ballistic trajectory) are active. A missile has been tracked passing Borodyanka toward Zhytomyr (0801Z).
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donetsk): Russia continues KAB (guided bomb) strikes on Donetsk (0744Z). The situation in Kupyansk is being monitored for potential localized instability following reports of confrontations in the town.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): While air activity continues, UAF tactical successes in equipment attrition (100+ units) suggest effective counter-battery and drone operations despite the deep freeze.
Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk): Sustained UAV pressure continues, likely intended to keep local Air Defense (AD) units engaged and prevent their relocation to protect heating infrastructure.
Enemy analysis (Threat Assessment)
Multi-Wave Depletion Strategy: The launch of a second wave (specifically involving Kh-22/32 assets) only minutes after the initial assessment of the first wave indicates a deliberate attempt to strike targets while AD batteries are reloading or their crews are fatigued.
High-Speed Asset Prioritization: The shift to Kh-22/32 missiles for the second wave suggests the enemy is targeting hardened or high-value infrastructure that survived the initial UAV/Cruise missile saturation.
Internal Distraction Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is saturating the information space with domestic news (Ufa school shooting, corruption cases, Western political scandals) to mask the scale of the humanitarian impact of their "freeze-out" strikes from their own domestic audience.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active AD Engagement: UAF AD units are currently engaging high-speed targets over north-central Ukraine. The 91% UAV interception rate demonstrates the effectiveness of mobile fire groups, but the lower missile interception rate (53%) highlights the critical need for more sophisticated ATBM (Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile) systems.
Tactical Counter-Offensives (Southern Sector): Significant Russian vehicle losses (100 units) indicate that UAF is successfully exploiting Russian logistics bottlenecks caused by the -27°C weather and snowy conditions.
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control (Security Guarantees): The FT report regarding a 72-hour Western intervention (0739Z) is being widely disseminated. While potentially a deterrent, it could also be used by Russian propaganda to frame the conflict as a direct "Russia-NATO" war to justify the current infrastructure strikes.
Strategic Distraction: Maria Zakharova and TASS are aggressively pushing Epstein-related narratives (0751Z) to dominate social media trends and distract from the ongoing missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: The current Kh-22 wave will impact targets in Central/Western Ukraine (Zhytomyr/Vinnytsia). Expect localized power outages to expand into regional grid collapses as the -27°C temperature persists.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike on the Odesa port infrastructure or the western energy corridors during the current missile wave to completely isolate Ukraine from European energy imports ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the 0800Z Kh-22 strikes in Zhytomyr/Kyiv oblasts.
[HIGH] Clarification of the "Kupyansk confrontation"—is this a partisan action, a breakthrough, or civilian unrest?
[MEDIUM] Evaluation of EW effectiveness against the new wave of Kh-22s given the ongoing X-class solar flare interference.
