MASS CRUISE MISSILE INGRESS: CENTRAL/WESTERN UKRAINE (0433Z-0503Z, Vanyek/Air Force, HIGH): A significant wave of approximately 15 cruise missiles (Kh-101/Kalibr) is transiting Ukraine, executing complex flight paths through Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, and Poltava toward Vinnytsia, Zhmerynka, and Khmelnytskyi.
BALLISTIC/SUPERSONIC STRIKE: KYIV AXIS (0448Z-0453Z, Air Force/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Russian forces launched ballistic missiles from the Bryansk region and at least two Kh-22 supersonic missiles targeting the Kyiv metropolitan area and Boryspil.
KINETIC IMPACT: VINNYTSIA/ZHMERYNKA (0441Z/0501Z, Tsaplienko/Vanyek, HIGH): Multiple explosions confirmed in Vinnytsia. At 0501Z, four missiles performed a terminal maneuver toward Zhmerynka, a critical railway junction.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING: TRYPILLYA (0457Z, Air Force, MEDIUM): Cruise missiles are currently on a vector toward Trypillya, the site of a major Thermal Power Plant (TPP) serving the Kyiv region.
UKRAINIAN IADS ENGAGEMENT (0455Z, Vanyek, MEDIUM): Initial reports indicate at least one Kh-22 supersonic missile was successfully neutralized ("minus") on the approach to Kyiv/Obukhiv.
RUSSIAN CASUALTY DATA (0435Z, GSU/AFU, HIGH): Official Ukrainian estimates place Russian personnel losses at +780 over the last 24h, with a notable spike in UAV attrition (approx. 1200 units).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy): The sector is under high-intensity pressure from "high-speed targets" (Kh-22) and ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk. The primary axis of attack follows the Chernihiv-Nizhyn-Kyiv corridor. At 0503Z, a missile was tracked passing Yahotyn on a southerly heading.
Central Sector (Vinnytsia/Cherkasy/Uman): This area is currently the focus of a large-scale cruise missile concentration. Eight missiles passed Uman at 0458Z, while four Shahed UAVs and five cruise missiles converged on Vinnytsia/Nemyriv at 0455Z.
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia): Mykolaiv remains a transit corridor for cruise missiles (likely Kalibrs) moving Northwest toward Voznesensk (0433Z). Two Shahed UAVs remain active over Zaporizhzhia (0456Z).
Russian Rear (Belgorod/Bryansk): Bryansk is being utilized as a launch site for short-range ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv. RF sources claim 10 UAF drones were downed over five Russian regions overnight (0442Z).
Enemy analysis
Tactical Shift (Multi-Vector Saturation): Russia is synchronizing slow-moving Shahed UAVs with high-speed Kh-22 supersonic missiles and cruise missiles. The use of Kh-22s (historically inaccurate but highly destructive) against Kyiv suggests a shift toward high-velocity saturation to overwhelm Patriot/SAMP-T batteries.
Targeting Logic: The focus on Zhmerynka (rail hub) and Trypillya (energy) indicates a dual objective: paralyzing logistics and finalizing the "Grid-Freeze" strategy during the -27°C cold snap.
Course of Action: The enemy is utilizing complex waypoint maneuvers—missiles initially heading for Vinnytsia turned west toward Khmelnytskyi (0457Z) before four split off toward Zhmerynka (0501Z). This is designed to confuse IADS tracking and deplete interceptor stocks at multiple locations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Integrated Air Defense (IADS): UAF is actively engaging targets across the Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Cherkasy regions. The successful engagement of a Kh-22 (0455Z) demonstrates high readiness of long-range systems despite reported solar interference (X-class flare context).
Force Sustainment: GSU/AFU continues to report high Russian attrition, particularly in drone operators and equipment, likely as a result of the 150-drone counter-strike on Belgorod launch sites noted in the previous sitrep.
Information environment / disinformation
Atrocity Narrative: Russian state media (TASS, 0453Z) is circulating UNCONFIRMED and likely FABRICATED claims of UAF atrocities in Seversk. This is a classic "maskirovka" tactic intended to distract from the ongoing strategic bombing of Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure.
Diplomatic Distraction: Shoigu's promotion of Russia-Myanmar energy and space cooperation (0439Z) serves to project an image of "business as usual" and international relevance despite isolation.
Ideological Mobilization: Increased use of religious-military imagery by Russian mil-bloggers (Archangel Spetsnaz, 0500Z) suggests a continued effort to frame the "Grid-Freeze" campaign as a "holy war" or existential struggle.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued terminal strikes in Western and Central Ukraine (Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk) as the current wave completes its transit. Expect secondary Shahed waves to target BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) sites and repair crews.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A successful ballistic or Kh-22 hit on the Trypillya TPP or the 750kV substations, leading to a cascading failure of the Kyiv municipal heating grid. Given the -27°C temperature, this would trigger an immediate humanitarian emergency.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of BDA at Trypillya TPP following the 0457Z vector report.
[HIGH] Assessment of Zhmerynka rail hub status; any disruption to the "Grain Corridor" or military logistics.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the "ballistic launch from Bryansk" type (Iskander-M vs. S-400 in surface-to-surface mode) to determine interceptor prioritization.
