CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING: 750 kV SUBSTATION (0359Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Russian forces are reportedly prioritizing strikes on a 750 kV substation linking the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) to the Kyiv and central regional grids.
STRATEGIC MISSILE INGRESS: Kh-101 (0341Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Strategic aviation (Tu-95MS) has launched Kh-101 cruise missiles; these are currently entering Ukrainian airspace.
NAVAL MISSILE ARRIVAL: KALIBR (0344Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): The first wave of sea-launched "Kalibr" cruise missiles has been detected over the Kherson region, moving inland.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT: KHARKIV (0335Z/0402Z, RBK-UA/Terekhov, HIGH): Confirmed explosions in Kharkiv; Mayor Terekhov confirms a deliberate, targeted strike on the city's energy infrastructure.
KINETIC DAMAGE: KYIV CITY (0358Z, KMVA/Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): Damage confirmed across five districts: Darnytskyi, Desnyanskyi, Dniprovskyi, Pecherskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi.
UAF COUNTER-LOGISTICS: BRYANSK STRIKE (0343Z, ASTRA/Gov. Bogomaz, MEDIUM): UAF strike confirmed on the "Miratorg" agricultural enterprise in Bryansk region; one employee wounded.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: The capital is currently absorbing a multi-vector assault. Confirmed impacts in central (Pecherskyi, Shevchenkivskyi) and eastern (Darnytskyi, Desnyanskyi) districts indicate an attempt to overwhelm point defenses via saturation.
Northeastern Sector (Kharkiv): Deliberate targeting of energy nodes continues. This sector remains the most vulnerable to short-range ballistic and glide-bomb supplements to the cruise missile waves.
Central Sector (Vinnytsia/Uman): New Shahed UAV vectors (2 units) are approaching Vinnytsia (0401Z, Vaněk). This suggests a widening of the strike geometry to force the redistribution of mobile AD units.
Southern Axis (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): Kherson is the primary ingress point for sea-launched Kalibrs. A single Shahed is tracking toward Zaporizhzhia from the north (0341Z, Vaněk).
Rear/Logistics (Russia): RZD (Russian Railways) is reportedly liquidating significant real estate assets in "Moscow-City" (220bn rubles), potentially indicating long-term fiscal pivoting for war sustainment (0336Z, TASS).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Intent: Russian mil-bloggers (0400Z, Archangel Spetsnaz) have explicitly declared the "Energy Truce" over. The focus has shifted from tactical front-line support to strategic "Grid-Freeze" operations.
Target Selection: The focus on the 750 kV substation (Rivne NPP link) is a sophisticated attempt to isolate the nuclear generation from the primary demand centers in Kyiv, which would cause a systemic frequency collapse.
ISR Activity: A US ISR UAV is confirmed operating over the Black Sea (0353Z, TASS). RF forces are likely monitoring this asset to adjust their Kalibr launch vectors or timing.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Ukrainian IADS is currently engaged in high-intensity interception operations across all sectors.
Deep Strike: The strike on the Miratorg facility in Bryansk (0343Z) suggests UAF is maintaining pressure on Russian border logistics, likely targeting civilian-masked supply hubs.
Information environment / disinformation
Normalization vs. Escalation: While Moscow floated "normalization" rumors earlier (0319Z), the "Energy Truce is over" narrative (0400Z) is the dominant operational signal, intended to demoralize the Ukrainian civilian population during extreme cold (-27°C).
Internal RF Security: Reports of a drug bust in Khabarovsk (0401Z) and railway repairs in Kirov (0342Z) are being used by state media to project an image of "domestic normalcy" despite the strategic offensive.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A coordinated "time-on-target" impact window within the next 30-90 minutes as Kh-101s from the north/east, Kalibrs from the south, and Shaheds from multiple vectors converge on Kyiv and central energy hubs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Successful kinetic impact on the 750 kV substation and CHPPs in Kharkiv/Kyiv, leading to a "cascading blackout" that disables water and heating systems in sub-zero temperatures, necessitating mass emergency evacuations.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Real-time BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the 750 kV substation linking Rivne NPP to Kyiv.
[HIGH] Status of the Kh-101 wave: confirm number of missiles currently in Ukrainian airspace and primary flight corridors.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the 5.1 magnitude earthquake's impact (Sea of Azov) on Russian naval launch platforms or coastal monitoring stations.
