KINETIC IMPACT: BALLISTIC STRIKE ON KHARKIV (0115Z, Vanek/UA Air Force, HIGH): Two ballistic missiles confirmed inbound to Kharkiv; residents ordered to shelters. Immediate high-speed threats identified moving NW.
AERIAL MANEUVER: MULTI-AXIS UAV CONVERGENCE ON KYIV (0104Z-0111Z, Vanek, HIGH): Approximately 20+ Geran-type UAVs ("mopeds") are converging on the Kyiv metropolitan area from the North (Chernihiv) and East. Specific vectors identified: Boryspil, Obukhiv, and Brovary.
AERIAL MANEUVER: NEW SOUTHERN AXIS (0119Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): A group of UAVs has been detected in Kherson Oblast, currently on a course toward Odesa.
AERIAL MANEUVER: SUMY TRANSIT CORRIDOR (0113Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Additional UAV groups entering Sumy Oblast, moving South/Southwest toward central Ukraine.
UNCONFIRMED: SVYATOGORSK GROUND OFFENSIVE (Previous Sitrep, TASS, LOW): No new data to corroborate Russian claims of a multi-axis offensive in the Yarova-Drobyshevo sector. Remains UNCONFIRMED.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has escalated from UAV saturation to a coordinated multi-domain strike. The Russian Federation (RF) is currently executing a "pincer" aerial assault using three primary axes:
Eastern/Kharkiv Axis: High-velocity ballistic strikes synchronized with the UAV wave to overwhelm local Air Defense (AD).
Southern/Odesa Axis: A new wave of UAVs launched from Kherson, likely intended to fix southern AD assets and prevent their redeployment or support for the central/northern sectors.
Environmental Factor: The -27°C deep freeze persists. Any impact on energy infrastructure at this time carries a disproportionate risk of localized grid collapse ("Dark Start" scenario). The X-class solar flare continues to degrade GPS and HF communications, likely reducing the interception efficiency of Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) (Source: Daily Report context).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: RF is utilizing a "saturation-then-strike" methodology. By flooding the Kyiv/Boryspil airspace with low-cost UAVs, they are forcing the expenditure of AD interceptors immediately before or during the ballistic strikes on Kharkiv.
Tactical Shift: The synchronization of the Kherson-Odesa UAV group suggests an attempt to exploit the "seam" between regional AD commands.
Propaganda Operations: RF state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are currently disseminating non-kinetic noise (solar observation reports, Jan 2026 summaries) to clutter the information environment during active kinetic operations.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-tempo tracking across four distinct sectors (Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson/Odesa).
Operational Constraint: AD units must prioritize targets under conditions of degraded electronic support (GPS/HF interference). The focus appears to be on protecting the Boryspil/Kyiv corridor and responding to the ballistic threat in Kharkiv.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Distraction Narratives: RF media is pushing irrelevant scientific and labor-law content (TASS, 0102Z, 0117Z) to fill the information vacuum or mask the real-time outcomes of the ongoing strikes.
Strategic Messaging: The amplification of "Center Rubikon" successes (Colonelcassad, 0103Z) aims to project an image of sustained operational momentum regardless of the current strike outcomes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The current UAV waves (Kyiv and Odesa) will reach their target boxes within the next 30-60 minutes. We expect a second ballistic or cruise missile wave (potentially Kalibrs from the Black Sea, as noted in the 0046Z report) to target energy substations once AD is fully engaged with the UAV swarms.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the Odesa/Kyiv electrical nexus while the deep freeze is at its peak. If the Kalibr carriers in the Black Sea launch simultaneously with the UAV arrival in Odesa, there is a high risk of regional power outages that could lead to catastrophic pipe bursts and infrastructure failure due to the -27°C temperature.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of kinetic impact or interception results from the Kharkiv ballistic strike.
[HIGH] Real-time monitoring of Kalibr-capable vessels in the Black Sea. Any confirmed launch activity is a priority.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the efficacy of fiber-optic drones (ref: Daily Report) in the Svyatogorsk/Kharkiv sectors to see if they are being used in tandem with the ballistic strikes.
