Situation Update (2352Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC IMPACT: RENEWED BALLISTIC VOLLEYS ON KYIV (2339Z-2341Z, UA Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): At least 2-3 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23) targeted Kyiv and Brovary from the north. Series of "loud explosions" confirmed in the capital.
- KINETIC IMPACT: DNIPRO BALLISTIC SATURATION (2333Z-2342Z, UA Air Force/RBK-UA, HIGH): Successive ballistic strikes reported in Dnipro city. This represents the second major ballistic wave in under 60 minutes.
- INFRASTRUCTURE THREAT: KYIV TPP STRIKE CLAIM (2338Z, NgP Razvedka, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Pro-RU sources claim strikes have "mangled" a Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Kyiv. UAF/Official sources have not yet confirmed specific utility damage, though KMVA reports "consequences" of the attack (2323Z).
- AERIAL MANEUVER: MASS UAV SWARM ON KHARKIV (2341Z-2349Z, Vanek/UA Air Force, HIGH): UAV density over Kharkiv has increased to 10 units. Chuhuiv is being used as a transit corridor for new arrivals.
- KINETIC IMPACT: KONOTOP (SUMY) (2334Z, RBK-UA/Local Officials, HIGH): Confirmed damage to a school, residential buildings, and infrastructure in Konotop following explosions.
- AERIAL MANEUVER: CHERNIHIV-KYIV VECTOR (2340Z-2345Z, UA Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): High-speed targets (missiles) and 5 UAVs detected transiting Chernihiv Oblast toward Brovary/Kyiv.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The Russian Federation (RU) has intensified its "Cold Weather Strategic Offensive," transitioning into a sustained, multi-wave saturation of Ukraine's Integrated Air Defense System (IADS). The operation is currently a multi-domain effort leveraging ballistic missiles (Iskander-M/KN-23), UAVs (Shahed-type), and KABs. Environmental conditions remain extreme (-27°C) with persistent GPS degradation due to solar activity, complicating interception of low-flying UAVs.
- Kyiv/Brovary Sector: Currently the primary target for ballistic strikes from the north. RU is attempting to saturate the capital’s AD with a mix of high-speed ballistic targets and low-speed UAV swarms (5 units currently inbound).
- Dnipro Sector: Sustained ballistic pressure. RU is using repeated volleys (2333Z, 2337Z) to prevent emergency responders from operating and to deplete AD interceptors.
- Kharkiv/Derhachi Sector: Massive UAV concentration (10 units). Tactical aviation is also active, with KAB strikes reported in the suburbs (2323Z).
- Zaporizhzhia Sector: UAV threat is increasing, with at least 4 "Shaheds" vectoring toward the city (2335Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
- Capabilities/Intentions: RU is executing a coordinated "Blackout Strike." The focus on Konotop and the (unconfirmed) claim of a Kyiv TPP strike suggest a deliberate effort to collapse regional energy nodes during a period of peak thermal demand.
- Tactical Changes: RU is utilizing "Iskander-M" (referred to as "Iskander Nakiev" in RU channels, 2325Z) in rapid succession with UAVs, forcing UA AD to prioritize high-velocity threats while drones loiter to identify AD radar positions or strike secondary targets.
- Logistics/C2: RU is maintaining a high tempo across all northern and eastern axes, suggesting pre-positioned missile stocks were fully reloaded (consistent with earlier SAR analysis).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
- AD Posture: UA Air Force and local Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are heavily engaged. AD is confirmed active in Kyiv and Dnipro.
- Readiness: Casualties reported in Kharkiv (27 and 58-year-old males) and Derhachi (2 civilians) indicate that despite interceptions, some munitions are reaching urban centers or causing damage via falling debris.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Disinformation/Propaganda: RU state-affiliated media (Radio Sputnik/Rozhin) is actively pushing narratives of "Ukrainian domestic dissent" (2331Z) to coincide with the kinetic strikes. This is a classic psychological operation intended to correlate physical suffering (cold/strikes) with political instability.
- Operational Security (OPSEC): RU sources are monitoring Ukrainian "monitor" channels in real-time, using UA warnings to confirm their own strike effectiveness (NgP Razvedka, 2338Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue the UAV loitering over Kharkiv and Dnipro to force "all-clear" delays, while preparing a third ballistic wave for Kyiv between 0100Z-0300Z.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If the Kyiv TPP strike is confirmed, RU may shift focus to the substation network in Western Ukraine to achieve a total grid collapse. The appearance of "high-speed targets" over Chernihiv (2340Z) may be a precursor to a wider cruise missile wave if strategic bombers have launched.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Critical Risk to energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Dnipro.
- High Risk of prolonged power outages in Konotop and Sumy Oblast.
- Tactical Concern: The increase to 10 UAVs over Kharkiv suggests a "saturation-dive" tactic is imminent to overwhelm local MFGs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] Confirmation of status for Kyiv TPP and energy infrastructure in Konotop.
- [HIGH] Tracking of the 5 UAVs transiting from Chernihiv to Brovary—identify if they are "decoy" drones or armed variants.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor RU tactical aviation frequencies for additional KAB launch signatures near Kharkiv/Sumy.
//REPORT ENDS//
