Situation Update (2252Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC IMPACT: KHARKIV (2236Z, Mayor Terehov/RBK-UA, HIGH): Confirmed ballistic missile strike on the Slobidskyi district; additional series of explosions reported throughout the city (2251Z).
- KINETIC IMPACT: KYIV (2238Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Explosions reported within city limits following UAV ingress from northern and eastern vectors.
- AERIAL THREAT: TORNADO-S (2232Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, MEDIUM): Likely employment of Tornado-S large-caliber MLRS against Kharkiv/Chuhuiv targets.
- STRATEGIC AVIATION (UNCONFIRMED) (2241Z, Monitoring Channels, LOW): Preliminary reports of Tu-95MS strategic bombers taking off from Russian airbases.
- UAV MANEUVER: KYIV OBLAST (2238Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, HIGH): UAV swarm composition updated: 3 units remaining from the initial wave via Brovary, plus 2 new units entering via Vyshhorod.
- UAV THREAT: DNIPRO (2236Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, HIGH): A second wave of 6 Shahed-type UAVs is vectoring toward Dnipro city.
- CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY: LIPETSK (2247Z, Governor Artamonov, HIGH): Air danger alert declared in Lipetsk Oblast (RU), suggesting potential Ukrainian counter-UAV or long-range drone activity.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry has shifted from transit to terminal engagement across three primary hubs: Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro. The environment is dominated by a -27°C deep freeze and X-class solar flare activity, which continues to degrade HF communications and GPS precision.
- Kyiv Sector: The capital is under a multi-vector UAV assault. Ingress points via Vyshhorod (North) and Brovary/Boryspil (East) indicate a pincer-style approach to overwhelm local Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs).
- Kharkiv Sector: This sector has escalated from positional shelling to high-intensity ballistic and MLRS (Tornado-S) strikes. The Slobidskyi district impact suggests targeting of industrial or transport hubs.
- Dnipro Sector: Sustained pressure continues with a second wave of 6 UAVs following earlier kinetic impacts (2210Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
- Capabilities/Intentions: RU is executing a coordinated "Suppression of Enemy Air Defense" (SEAD) and infrastructure degradation mission. The use of Tornado-S and ballistics against Kharkiv while UAVs orbit Kyiv and Dnipro suggests a deliberate attempt to force UA to deplete AD interceptor stocks.
- Tactical Changes: RU is leveraging the "truce" disinformation (see Section 4) to mask the launch of strategic assets. The potential takeoff of Tu-95MS (2241Z) aligns with the MLCOA predicted in the previous SITREP.
- Sustainment: The declaration of air danger in Lipetsk (RU) suggests RU is sensitive to Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities targeting their logistics or C2 nodes in the rear.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UA)
- AD Posture: Kyiv and Kharkiv AD units are in active engagement. The "loud" reports in Kyiv (2238Z) likely indicate successful kinetic interceptions or terminal impacts.
- Constraints: Extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary operational constraint, affecting battery life for MANPADS and the mechanical reliability of MFG technicals.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Hybrid Ops: RU-linked channels (NgP RaZVedka) are openly mocking the "energy truce" and "negotiation" narratives (2228Z, 2243Z, 2250Z), referring to the strikes as "concessions/truce gifts." This confirms the "truce" claims (TASS/Parker) were a targeted deception operation.
- Cognitive Clutter: Parallel narratives regarding Jeffrey Epstein and Bitcoin (2247Z) continue to be pushed by RU influence actors to saturate the OSINT space and distract Western audiences from the escalation in Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): If Tu-95MS takeoffs are confirmed, a massed cruise missile volley (Kh-101/555) will enter UA airspace between 0030Z and 0200Z, specifically targeting the energy grid to maximize the "freeze effect" of the -27°C weather.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the solar flare's GPS degradation to launch high-speed "Kinzhal" strikes on Kyiv's C2 centers, banking on a reduced AD response time.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- High probability of a transition from UAV/Ballistic harassment to a massed strategic cruise missile strike.
- Continued kinetic activity in Kharkiv and Dnipro.
- Critical window: 0000Z-0400Z is the highest risk period for grid stability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of Tu-95MS/Tu-160 movement from Olenya or Engels airbases.
- [HIGH] Damage assessment of the Slobidskyi district strike in Kharkiv to determine RU targeting priorities (Energy vs. Logistics).
- [MEDIUM] Evaluation of AD effectiveness in Kyiv given the reported solar flare interference on GPS-guided systems.
//REPORT ENDS//
