Situation Update (2200Z FEB 02 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- STRATEGIC AVIATION SORTIE (2149Z-2151Z, RBK-UA/Tsapliienko, HIGH): Multiple monitoring sources confirm the takeoff of Tu-160 (Blackjack) and potentially Tu-95MS (Bear) strategic bombers from Russian airbases. The number of aircraft is currently being verified.
- UAV STRIKE ON KHARKIV (2142Z, RBK-UA/Mayor Terehov, HIGH): A "Molniya" (Lightning) type drone struck central Kharkiv. Casualties and damage assessments are ongoing.
- DIPLOMATIC PIVOT: IRGC DESIGNATION (2137Z, Alex Parker/Zelenskyy, MEDIUM): Ukraine has officially designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, likely in response to sustained Iranian support for Russian UAV operations.
- KUPYANSK SECTOR CAPTURES (2143Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Ukrainian forces captured two Russian stormtroopers in the center of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, indicating localized tactical success and successful defense of the urban core.
- EUROPEAN DIPLOMATIC FRICTION (2141Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Czech Republic has imposed movement restrictions on Russian diplomatic staff not accredited within the country, targeting potential GRU/SVR intelligence conduits.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater is transitioning from a preparatory UAV ingress to a heavy-weight coordinated strike phase. The confirmation of Tu-160/Tu-95MS sorties (2149Z) validates previous indicators of a completed "reload phase." Environmental conditions remain extreme (-27°C), increasing the lethality of potential energy grid disruptions.
- Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kyiv): "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs are currently transiting Chernihiv Oblast (2132Z), moving toward the capital. These assets are likely serving as the "vanguard" to map and exhaust Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) ahead of the incoming strategic bomber wave.
- Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Kharkiv): The frontline in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi remains contested but stable, with UA forces conducting successful capture operations (2143Z). However, Kharkiv city is under direct tactical UAV pressure ("Molniya" strike, 2142Z), indicating RU's intent to maintain constant psychological and physical pressure on urban centers.
- Strategic Rear: The entire country is moving toward a high-alert status as strategic bombers reach launch lines (likely over the Caspian or Rostov regions within the next 60-90 minutes).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
- Capabilities/Intentions: RU is executing a "Multi-Domain Synchronized Strike." The sequence—UVB-76 activation (previous sitrep), UAV swarms, and now Strategic Aviation—is a textbook RU heavy strike protocol. The use of Tu-160s, which carry larger payloads than Tu-95s, suggests a high-intensity mission profile.
- Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of the "Molniya" drone in Kharkiv (2142Z) represents a shift toward smaller, more maneuverable, and potentially lower-cost strike assets for urban harassment.
- Logistics/C2: Strategic Missile Forces are fully committed. The timing suggests RU aims to maximize grid failure during the overnight temperature lows.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
- AD Posture: UA Air Force is at maximum readiness. Mobile fire groups (MFGs) are engaged in Chernihiv. The primary challenge will be prioritizing high-value interceptors for cruise missiles while managing the drone swarm.
- Diplomatic/Strategic: The IRGC terrorist designation (2137Z) is an offensive diplomatic maneuver intended to increase international pressure on RU's supply chain and solidify UA's alignment with Western security priorities.
- Local Successes: The 25th Brigade and other units in the Kupyansk sector continue to hold critical junctions, successfully attriting Russian storm groups despite the use of "Kurier" ground robots (previous daily report).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- RU Propaganda: RU sources are aggressively circulating footage of alleged Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) violence (2135Z) to exploit domestic social tensions and undermine mobilization efforts.
- US Narrative Shifts: RU state media (TASS, 2131Z-2150Z) is heavily amplifying statements attributed to Donald Trump regarding European military "dependence" and US mineral reserves. This is a deliberate effort to project an image of crumbling Western support.
- UA Morale: UA official channels are leveraging "Drone Forces" kill tallies (312+ eliminations in early Feb, 2128Z) to counter the "siege" narrative during the drone ingress.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive, multi-vector cruise missile strike (Kh-101/Kh-555 from Tu-95s and potentially Kh-47 Kinzhals) will commence between 0100Z and 0300Z. Primary targets will be the energy distribution nodes in Kyiv, Lviv, and Dnipro.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the Tu-160s to launch long-range stand-off strikes against Western-supplied logistics hubs near the Polish border, timed to coincide with GPS degradation from solar activity, complicating UA interception and increasing the risk of "border-adjacent" incidents.
- Timeline:
- 2230Z-0030Z: Continued UAV attrition of AD.
- 0100Z-0400Z: Peak missile impact window.
- 0600Z: Damage assessment and emergency grid management.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirm exact number and launch points of Tu-160/Tu-95MS aircraft (e.g., Olenya vs. Engels-2).
- [HIGH] Verify the technical specifications and origin of the "Molniya" drone used in Kharkiv—is this a new domestic RU production or a modified Iranian airframe?
- [MEDIUM] Monitor RU military frequencies for "Monolith" voice-coded messages following the UVB-76 activity.
- [MEDIUM] Assess if the Czech diplomatic restrictions (2141Z) are leading to a reciprocal "tit-for-tat" expulsion of UA diplomats from RU.
//REPORT ENDS//
